Daily Fantasy Golf Preview: BMW Championship

Cheat Sheet

The Course

  • Medinah Country Club (Course 3)
  • Medinah, Illinois (outside of Chicago)
  • Par 72
  • 7,613 yards
    • Designed by Tom Bendelow; changes made by A.W. Tillinghast in the 1930’s and several other renovations have taken place since then
    • Hosted the U.S. Open in 1949, 1975, and 1990; the PGA Championship in 1999 and 2006; and most recently the 2012 Ryder Cup
    • Tiger Woods won both PGA Championship here
    • Bentgrass greens that are slightly small and average speed
    • Tree-lined course with water on less than 1/3 of the holes
    • Rough should play fairly tough with the mowers set at 4 inches
    • The course isn’t as long as the yardage would suggest – two of the par 5’s are over 600 yards and all of the par 3’s are over 190 yards which takes length away from the other holes (so many golfers might keep the driver in their bag on these par 4’s)

Key Stats

  • SG: tee-to-green
    • SG: approaching-the-green
  • Birdie or better
  • Bogey avoidance
  • Par 4 scoring

The Field

  • 70 man field: top ranked in the FedEx Cup Standings
  • No cut-line
  • Kevin Na WD

Big Dogs ($9,000 and up on DK)

Solid (Cash)

    • Jon Rahm ($10,900 DK – $11,800 FD) – in 15 of his last 19 events Jon Rahm has finished 12th or better (could be excluding some smaller European Tour events).  He finished 3rd last week and has had have an excellent year so it would surprise no one to see him win one of these last two tournaments.
    • Webb Simpson ($9,400 DK – $11,100 FD) – after his back-to-back runner up finishes at the WGC-St. Jude Invitational and Wyndham Championship, Webb went on to finish 18th last week despite a 2nd round +2. In the last two years at this event he has finished inside of the top 10 in both 2017 and 2018. Him and Rahm appear to have the highest floors out of any of the golfers in this range.
      • Justin Rose ($10,200 DK – $11,400 FD)
      • Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000 DK – $10,800 FD)

Risky (GPP)

    • Dustin Johnson ($10,700 DK – $12,000 FD) – DJ seemed to be turning the corner last week when he went into the weekend with the lead at -12, but on Saturday and Sunday he shot +3 and +2. He only had one bogey through the first 36 holes and wasn’t even putting all that well, so like I said last week: it’s only a matter of time before the elite ball-striker is back on top.
    • Patrick Reed ($9,600 DK – $11,000 FD) – since the U.S. Open, Reed has been bouncing around between 5th place and 32nd place in seven tournaments before finding a win last week at the Northern Trust. In the last five years in this event he hasn’t finished in the top 10 once and has only cracked the top 25 twice. Reed’s price has jumped up following the victory so I believe people won’t want to pay that much for a guy that they think is going to finish right around 20th or 25th — which makes him an interesting GPP pivot.
      • Adam Scott ($9,200 DK – $10,900 FD)

Value ($7,400 – $8,900 on DK)

Solid (Cash)

    • Xander Schauffele ($8,600 DK – $10,500 FD) – Xander hasn’t looked great in his last three events finishing 41st, 27th, and 85th but his last two times in the BMW Championship he finished 20th (2017) and 3rd (2018). The most intriguing thing about him in my opinion is his finishes in no-cut events. Over the last year Xander has played in six no-cut events and his worst two finishes were 27th and 14th, with four top 10’s including a win.
    • Billy Horschel ($8,300 DK – $9,600 FD) – Horschel has been solid lately, after missing the cut at the Open; with a 9th place finish the following week at the WGC, a 6th after that at the Wyndham Championship, and 21st last week. He’s also had a good track record at the BMW Championship finishing in the top 10 in three out of the last five years with a win in 2014 and 3rd place finish last year. He also finished in the top 5 in three out of the four playoff events last season as well.
      • Tony Finau ($8,500 DK – $10,300 FD)
      • Jason Kokrak ($7,800 DK – $9,100 FD)

Risky (GPP)

  • Tiger Woods ($8,000 DK – $10,200 FD) – Tiger Woods WD last week but it seemed like it would always be an option for him if he got off to a slow start just so he could remain fresh for the next round of the playoffs. Last year he finished 6th at the BMW Championship before going on to win the Tour Championship the very next week. Tiger won the last two majors here in 2006 and 1999 so it’s safe to say he can win here, my only fear is that too many people realize this and he becomes chalky… especially with an injury always looming.
  • Gary Woodland ($7,900 DK – $9,000 FD) – Woodland continues his mediocrity since the U.S. Open win with another lack luster finish of 52nd at the Northern Trust. He hasn’t been great in this event the past few years too with only one finish inside the top 20 out of his last five tries (although only one finish was outside of the top 30). But like Xander, Woodland has been great in no-cut events over the last year: five out of six of those tournaments have been 17th or better with two top 10’s.
    • Francesco Molinari ($7,800 DK – $9,400 FD)

Sleepers ($7,300 and under on DK)

Solid (Cash)

    • Andrew Putnam ($7,300 DK – $8,600 FD) – Putnam has now made nine straight cuts and his worst finish in his last four events has been a 32nd at the Open. In the first round of the playoffs last week he finished T12 and in the BMW Championship last year he finished T16. Putnam doesn’t have the best driver on tour but he seems to be dialed in at the moment and he’s a good iron player and excellent putter which should help him score on these shorter par 4’s and longer par 3’s.
      • Scott Piercy ($7,000 DK – $7,900 FD)

Risky (GPP)

    • Lucas Glover ($7,100 DK – $8,000 FD) – Glover’s last two events were a 72nd at the Wyndham Championship and 43rd at the Northern Trust but before that he had two straight top 10’s leading into the Open where he finished 20th. He’s been consistently one of the best tee-to-green players on tour for the better part of a decade so with no cut-line that should take the pressure off of his putter and he can play relaxed while looking at a lot of birdie opportunities.
    • Charles Howell II ($7,100 DK – $8,100 FD) – Howell missed the cut last week but before that he had made five straight cuts including three top 25 finishes and one of those was a 6th place finish at the John Deere Classic. In five out of the last six years he has ranked inside the top 50 in SG: tee-to-green, and in five out of the last six years he has ranked inside the top 20 in bogey avoidance. Add that to a lot of experience in majors, WGC’s, and FedEx Cup playoff events and you get a good-valued sleeper.
      • Keegan Bradley ($6,800 DK – $7,700 FD)

 

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Mark Lee

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Detroit sports fan, also sufferer of seasonal depression (the two might be related). Avid golfer and former college baseball player. Would've been in the league if it weren't for my lack of ability. Accountant by day, fantasy sports guru by night.