Things are going to be a little different this year. Here’s what to expect from this article. Each day, the first thing I do is go through each game and look at the matchups for both the pitchers and hitters, highlighting things that stand out to me. Some of the research may present glaringly obvious plays, but other stuff may require a little bit more research. Regardless, I make a full list of notes on everything that jumps out.
I’m going to share this full list of notes with you to use however you’d like. Whether you want to blindly take plays from it or use it as your own research starting point, it’s yours to use how you see fit. Keep in mind, I primarily play tournaments and on DraftKings.
As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Twitter, and I’d love to hear your feedback on the new format. You can find me here: @mrclutchdfs
Today’s Starting Points
Today’s going to be short hand because I’m limited on time. Luckily it’s a small five game slate.
Caleb Smith is still striking out over 33% of the batters he’s faced. He’s been lights out against righties and Philly should roll out eight of them. Bryce Harper is the sole lefty, and he’s dangerous, but his 31% strikeout rate against lefties nearly mimics Smith’s 29% K rate. I like Smith a lot for his price with limited options on the slate.
Aaron Nola righted the ship in Colorado of all places. He’s facing a weak lineup who strikes out a lot. He’s in play as well.
Rick Porcello can’t get a lefty out to save his life, but this Detroit team has almost no one to exploit that. Another risky pitcher who could end up being a solid value play. This slate is shaping up as a tourney slate for sure.
Red Sox stack! Just stack them up. They’re coming off of 11 runs last night and should put up a big number again tonight against Zimmerman and the worn down bullpen. Lefties have done almost all the damage against him this year, but throwing in Betts and Martinez isn’t a bad idea.
We have a pitching duel in Houston. I give Gerrit Cole the nod over Trevor Bauer, only because Cleveland’s bats have been so bad to start the season. Bauer isn’t a bad pivot if the ownership of Cole ends up being 2-3 times higher than Bauer.
It’s the tale of two handedness’s for Trevor Cahill early in the season. He’s been good against righties (0.223 wOBA, 26.2% K rate) and terrible against lefties (0.516 wOBA, 14% K rate). Therefore, I’ll be looking at the lefties for the Yankees. Guys like Tauchman, Gardner, Ford, and Wade all make my list for one off’s or mini stacks. Wade might be the best play on the slate, dollar for dollar.
Mike Trout is in play against Tanaka, who has struggled against righties, but I don’t think I’ll force him in. I also don’t have much interest in the rest of the Angels lineup.
Poor Taylor Hearn, making his first start against this Mariners team who crushes lefties. Among Haniger, Vogelbach, Encarnacion, Bruce, and Beckham, no one sports lower than a 0.493 wOBA and 0.462 ISO this season against the handedness. Sure, small sample size. But these guys are locked in and make an excellent stack.
Marco Gonzales is squarely in play. I see a wide range of outcomes for him, as the Rangers can string together a bunch of hits and have some power. But at home, I expect Gonzales to put up a respectable performance at his price.
Pretty short list today for the large slate of games, but this is all that jumped out to me at first glance. It’s looking like a big bats type of day with cheap pitching.
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