Hey everyone! I hope some of you missed me. It seems like it’s been forever since football season ended. I’ve finally transitioned over to MLB DFS from NBA and I’m fully enAgaged and ready to help you find some good plays and win some money! Things are going to be a little different this year.
Here’s what to expect from this article. Each day, the first thing I do is go through each game and look at the matchups for both the pitchers and hitters, highlighting things that stand out to me. Some of the research may present glaringly obvious plays, but other stuff may require a little bit more research. Regardless, I make a full list of notes on everything that jumps out. I’m going to share this full list of notes with you to use however you’d like. Whether you want to blindly take plays from it or use it as your own research starting point, it’s yours to use how you see fit. Keep in mind, I primarily play tournaments and on DraftKings.
As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Twitter, and I’d love to hear your feedback on the new format. You can find me here: @mrclutchdfs
Today’s Starting Points
Don’t be afraid of a mini-Pirates stack, including the three lefties Polanco, Bell, and Moran against Luke Weaver.
Trent Thorton could be an interesting salary saver. He’s struggling against lefties, but he strikes them out at 32.6%. Against the Giants, he’ll probably face five lefties, four of which strike out at 21% and higher. The only one who strikes out less is Joe Panik and he leads the lefties in HH% against righties at 35%. If Panik is your hard hit leader, you might have a weak lineup.
I immediately saw Homer Bailey on the slate and thought stack against. However, Bailey has changed some things up this season and it’s working for him. He got rid of his changeup and in it’s place, he’s using his splitter 28% of the time. The splitter has been awesome, with a 20% hard hit rate, 60% ground ball rate, with a lowly 0.123 wOBA and 0.080 ISO. On top of that, it’s generating a 50% whiff rate. He’s also upped his use of his knuckle curve to 20% and it’s generating a whiff rate of 35.71%. I’ve made some money stacking the Rays so far this season, but they do strike out quite a bit (24%). When we look at their historical performance against the splitter and knuckle curve, Bailey jumps out even more. At his price, he’s one of my favorite pitchers, and that does scare me a bit.
If Cano is back in the lineup, he makes a good mini stack candidate with Confornto, who is a great one off play.
The Cardinals went off for 13 runs last night and the top half of their order has had Zach Davies’ number over the year. Carpenter is my favorite, but I also like Goldschmidt, DeJong, and Ozuna.
There is going to be a slight wind blowing in at Wrigley today, and the Dodgers have struggled early this season. That gives me some interest in Quintana, who has put up two straight 30+ point DK outings and is striking out over 30% of the batters he’s faced.
Michael Pineda is having tons of issues against righties so far this season, and a date with the Astros righties probably isn’t what he needs to fix it. I like the full Astros stack here anchored by Springer, Altuve, and Bregman. Throw in Correa who is 7-for-13 off of Pineda in his career with three home runs.
Nolan Arenado at home against a lefty is always a no-brainer. I’m not a huge stack fan here against Corbin, but he should give up a few runs, with Arenado the most likely to do the damage. However, on a slate with limited pitching, Corbin is definitely in play at a discounted price.
Domingo German is taking the mound for the Yankees and he’s been solid through four starts. Against this Angels offense, he’s maybe the safest pitching option on the slate.
Nick Margevicius is interesting to me on this slate. He’s striking out right handed batters 30% of the time and the Mariners have a lot of strike outs up and down the lineup against lefties. It’s risky, because the Mariners have been really good, but at his price, I think it’s worth a shot. If you play a lot of tourney entries, I would include a couple Mariners stacks as well.
Pretty short list today for the large slate of games, but this is all that jumped out to me at first glance. It’s looking like a big bats type of day with cheap pitching.
Visit Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.