Hey everyone! I hope some of you missed me. It seems like it’s been forever since football season ended. I’ve finally transitioned over to MLB DFS from NBA and I’m fully engaged and ready to help you find some good plays and win some money! Things are going to be a little different this year.
Here’s what to expect from this article. Each day, the first thing I do is go through each game and look at the matchups for both the pitchers and hitters, highlighting things that stand out to me. Some of the research may present glaringly obvious plays, but other stuff may require a little bit more research. Regardless, I make a full list of notes on everything that jumps out. I’m going to share this full list of notes with you to use however you’d like. Whether you want to blindly take plays from it or use it as your own research starting point, it’s yours to use how you see fit. Keep in mind, I primarily play tournaments and on DraftKings.
As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Twitter, and I’d love to hear your feedback on the new format. You can find me here: @mrclutchdfs
Today’s Starting Points
Joe Musgrove is an elite play. This Diamondbacks team has a lot of strikeouts in it and they hit a lot of ground balls.
Play the White Sox bats, especially lefties. I prefer Alonso over Abreu here simply because he’s hitting from the left side of the plate.
Yonny Chirinos is starting tonight and I have a lot of interest.
Steven Matz numbers aren’t horrible. But righties have been great against him the 75% of the time they don’t strike out. 0.383 wOBA, 0.308 ISO, 42.1% HH… I really like McCutchen, but don’t mind Realmuto and Franco either. All three guys have a single digit strikeout rate against lefties this year. Hoskins will probably strike out once or twice, but could hit one or two homers as well.
Chris Sale is broken, but so are the Tigers hitters. Some of these Tigers are historically solid hitters against lefties, and they are priced as if they’re facing elite Sale. Against broken Sale, I don’t mind stacking guys like Harrison, Castellanos, Cabrera, and Goodrum and still having a lot of salary left over. With that said, Sale is historically cheap and I just might take a shot on him in tourneys.
Based on this years numbers, Matt Boyd is the elite lefty in this game. There are some underlying things that tell us that we can play righties against him though. Mainly his 42.2. HH% and 40.9 FB%. Mookie Betts has struggled against lefties to start the season, but he’s still a top 5 hitter in baseball. Throw in Bogaerts and Martinez, who have been raking against lefties, and you have yourself the core of a Boston stack.
Christian Yelich and Mike MooseTacos are two of the better plays at their position on this slate.
I’ve been stacking up the Astros nearly every slate and I’m likely doing it again here. Start with Springer, Altuve, Bregman against the reverse split righty, Odorizzi. Take your pick among the rest of your lineup to fill out your stack, but don’t forget Chirinos.
Jeremy Hellickson has been terrible against lefties so far. As bad as he’s been against them, he’s been equally good against righties, mainly because of his 66.7% ground ball rate. You could play Rockies righties, but I’ll probably stick with the lefties, mainly Blackmon and Dahl. McMahon is fine too.
Rendon might be the best play on the entire slate. The rest of the Nationals have struggled against lefties, but I’ll probably have a five man stack. Too good of a spot against Tyler Anderson.
Mike Minor has been pretty dang good. He always seems to outperform expectations. With that said, 1-5 in the A’s lineup crushes lefties. Semien (0.414 wOBA, 0.200 ISO), Chapman (0.384, 0.417), Piscotty (0.393, 0.286), Davis (0.476, 0.556), Pinder (0.395, 0.214)… There may not be a tougher five hitters in a row for a lefty this season in any lineup in the league. I’ll stack them up and hope Minor’s early season 0.211 BABIP comes up in a big way here.
JA Happ has maybe been worse than the Angels hitters this season. He can’t get righties out if he’s not striking them out (21.2%). Trout is a no brainer. Stack the righties if you want, but I’ll be more likely to just play Trout and Simmons at his sub-$4k price tag.
It’s Matt Harvey Day! I’m afraid we don’t have too many of these left. Play ALL the lefties. Unfortunately, the Yankees lineup is littered with righties. Therefore, I’ll probably just pick and choose my batters as one-offs. Harvey can get righties out and now that Judge is out, the righties in this lineup are pretty week, so I don’t see massive offensive innings where a stack would pay off. Mike Tauchman has been elite against lefties this season (0.458, 0.480) and is a priority for most of the lineups I make today. Gardner is solid too and will be in my lineups.