Hey everyone! I hope some of you missed me. It seems like it’s been forever since football season ended. I’ve finally transitioned over to MLB DFS from NBA and I’m fully engaged and ready to help you find some good plays and win some money! Things are going to be a little different this year.
Here’s what to expect from this article. Each day, the first thing I do is go through each game and look at the matchups for both the pitchers and hitters, highlighting things that stand out to me. Some of the research may present glaringly obvious plays, but other stuff may require a little bit more research. Regardless, I make a full list of notes on everything that jumps out. I’m going to share this full list of notes with you to use however you’d like. Whether you want to blindly take plays from it or use it as your own research starting point, it’s yours to use how you see fit. Keep in mind, I primarily play tournaments and on DraftKings.
As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Twitter, and I’d love to hear your feedback on the new format. You can find me here: @mrclutchdfs
Today’s Starting Points
Madison Bumgarner – He’s been decent, but he has been lucky (0.227 BABIP). Pirates lineup has been atrocious so far against lefties. League worst .245 wOBA, 30.2% K rate. MadBum’s a solid option.
Okay with Brandon Belt as a salary saver with a decent matchup.
With that said, Jordan Lyles has been pretty good. He scares me a bit, but against this atrocious Giants offense, he’s likely to be popular at a his price.
Berrios is the elite pitching option on the slate. Don’t overthink it.
Limited sample, but Carlos Rodon has been awesome. He is in my pitcher pool against this anemic Tigers offense.
Moncada is a solid option today, but probably only as a one off.
Touki Toussaint is a star in the making and he’s facing off against the Indians who have the fourth worst wOBA to start the season against righties, to go along with a 25% K rate.
Caleb Smith has shown an elite strikeout rate. He has immense upside. He’s facing a decent offense in the Nationals, but in Miami, I’ll take my chances in tournaments.
HOUSTON STACK is maybe my favorite on the slate. Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Correa in that order. Add in any other righty to round out the five man stack on DK.
Verlander is Verlander, but I’m not sure I’m going to use him on this slate. This pesky Rangers offense could do just enough to prevent him from hitting his upside.
DODGERS STACK is right up there with Houston. All the lefties against Chacin. Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, Muncy in that order. Throw in Verdugo if he’s in the lineup. Okay with Turner as well.
Adam Wainwright is struggling mightily against lefties so far this season (.415 wOBA, .409 ISO against 26 batters). It’s still early, but Conforto is an elite one-off option.
Cardinals stack is also a solid option. Really like the 3-man w/Goldschmidt, Dejong, and Ozuna. But also fine with Molina and Martinez to round out the full stack. Vargas is a gas can.
Coors Field is still Coors Field, but I faded it last night and that didn’t end up hurting me. I may do the same again tonight. Two solid pitchers counteract the advantages the park gets. Throw in the fact that the Rockies are not hitting the ball to start the season, and there’s a case to be made. Regardless of all that, it could still end up 11-10, but I’m okay with that risk.
I think Aaron Brooks is playing with fire. He’s been up (27.7 DK points vs Boston) and down (-0.8 DK points vs Houston). I think this is a down game. His BABIP is sitting at 0.229, so that should come up (which is bad for him). Throw in his 16.4% K rate along with his 47.1% FB rate and 35.3% hard hit percentage and you have a recipe for disaster. All that said to point out that I think the Blue Jays are a solid option here. Especially the lefties. Galvis, Smoak, and Tellez are all good bets to go deep. Even throw in Grichuk if you want. Among the four of them, they have 15 home runs. Lastly, Erik Sogard has been good since joining the lineup and while he probably won’t knock one out of the park, he can get you a double or two, steal a base, and score some runs with those other guys batting behind him.
Trout is going to be in play every day. Excellent matchup today against Marco Gonzales. He’s 9-for-20 in his career against him w/three doubles and a home run.
Felix Pena’s numbers are terrible across the board this season. I’m a big fan of the Mariners lineup and you can pick and choose or stack them up.
Lefties tee off against DeSclafani, but the Padres really don’t have any lefties outside of Hosmer. I’m okay with him, but Desclafani himself could be in play in this matchup against a team with a sub-0.300 wOBA against righties and a K% north of 25. Throw in the park factor and you may have a cheap pitching option, but you might not want to watch.