Daily Fantasy Golf Preview – Farmers Insurance Open

The Course

  • Torrey Pines (North and South)
  • San Diego/La Jolla, California
  • Both courses are a par 72
  • 7,698 yards (South Course) & 7,257 yards (North Course)
    • One of the first two rounds is on the North Course and one is on the South Course, then the cut is after two days — where the final two rounds are played on the South Course only
    • Longest course on tour (South Course)
    • First poa annua greens of the year
    • Bentgrass was planted on the North Course’s greens in 2016
    • Fairways are harder to hit and missing the fairways makes it hard to reach the green in regulation (tough rough)
    • Hosted since 1968

Key Stats

  • Driving Distance
  • Driving Distance
  • Driving Distance (it’s important) 
    • Driving Accuracy
  •  SG: off the tee
    • SG: tee to green
  • Birdie or Better 
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • GIR
  • Course History

The Field

Phil Mickelson has opted out of this tournament for the first time since 1812, but outside of that this is the first big tournament with a full field in 2019. Jamie Lovemark and Steve Marino both decided to sit this one out with the newest winner on tour — Adam Long qualifying at the last-minute alongside Taylor Gooch, Dominic Bozzelli, and several others. As of now, the field is set at 156 with plenty of talent and potential storylines: Tiger making his return, Jason Day coming back to defend his title, and Jon Rahm taking the top shelf honors as the highest priced golfer.

Big Dogs ($9,000 and up on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Jason Day ($10,100 DK – $11,300 FD) – Day is a two-time winner at Torrey Pines and even finished runner-up in 2014. He’s one of the longer hitters on tour and has excellent short game which is a good recipe for competing at a course where scoring chances are few and far between.
    • Tony Finau ($9,900 DK – $10,700 FD) – Tony is currently the longest driver of the 2019 season and has had a couple good years in this event finishing T4 and T6 the last two years. He’s looking for his second win on tour (the first coming in 2016) so what better place than the longest course on tour.
    • Marc Leishman ($9,700 DK – $10,800 FD) – good recent form, good course history — Leishman is stacking up to be a solid pick for this tournament. What really impresses me the most is that he’s the top scorer on par 5’s this season which is what you need to do here to climb the leaderboard.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Rory McIlroy ($11,100 DK – $11,600 FD) – this will be Rory’s first time playing in this event and he is committed to playing more on American soil this year. Rory was the longest driver last year so this should be a course where he has a big upper-hand on the field.
    • Patrick Cantlay ($9,200 DK – $11,100 FD) – Cantlay has four straight top 10s this season and has lengthened his driver over the last couple months. He’s in excellent form and is a nice discount compared to the rest of the big dogs on DraftKings.
    • Gary Woodland ($9,000 DK – $10,600 FD) – Woodland has two runner-up finishes already this year with three other top 10 finishes on top of that. He missed his last cut but should be ready to redeem himself at a course where he hasn’t missed a cut in his last five attempts.

Value ($7,400 – $8,900 on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Keegan Bradley ($8,300 DK – $10,200 FD) – Keegan has back-to-back top 5 finishes at Torrey Pines and in his five starts this year he hasn’t finished outside of the top 30. He’s great tee-to-green so his floor seems high, as long as he doesn’t completely crash and burn with his short game he should be fine.
    • Emiliano Grillo ($8,100 DK – $9,500 FD) – in his last three years here Grillo has progressively gotten better starting with a missed cut, a 33rd place, and finally a 12th place finish. He’s 6/6 this season in cuts made and continues to flirt with the top of the leaderboard.
    • Kyle Stanley ($7,500 DK – $9,100 FD) – Stanley has made four straight cuts in the Farmers Insurance Open with two top 25 finishes. He’s looked good this season and lengthened his driver from the year before where he was also 4th on tour in GIR.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Cameron Smith ($8,800 DK – $9,900 FD) – Cameron Smith has posted back-to-back -4 at Torrey Pines in the last two years. He’s 21st in SG: tee-to-green this year and 22nd in driving distance so with improved play with the big stick I can see him finishing -4 or better again this year.
    • J.B. Holmes ($7,900 DK – $10,500 FD) – J.B. has solid recent form and in his last five years here he hasn’t finished worse than 33rd with a 6th, 4th, and 2nd place finish in that time. If there is anybody in this price range that’s a horse for the course… look no further.
    • Luke List ($7,700 DK – $9,700 FD) – Luke List was 5th in driving distance last season and I’ll give you one guess as to where he’s at this season. 5th. He was T12 here last year and has two top 5s already this season.
      • Aaron Wise ($9,100 FD) & Ryan Palmer ($9,100 FD) – both Wise and Palmer are coming off of missed cuts last week but have games that are well suited to the South Course (Palmer was 2nd here last year).
      • Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000 DK) & C.T. Pan/Adam Scott ($7,500 DK) – Matsuyama is $11,700 on FD which is drastically higher than anyone else around him in DK, so I like his value on DK much more. C.T. Pan doesn’t seem to have the right skills to succeed here but has good course history either way. Adam Scott, like Rory, hasn’t played in this event but has the right kind of game to win at Torrey Pines.

Sleepers ($7,300 and under on DK)

  • Solid (Cash)
    • Kevin Tway ($7,200 DK – $9,600 FD) – Tway is one of the longest drivers on tour and has some experience here but hasn’t cracked the top 30 yet. He’s now a tour winner and a much better player than he has been over the last few years so he could be geared up for a big tournament.
    • Jason Kokrak ($7,100 DK – $8,500 FD) – I was on Kokrak last week even though he took some time off and he finished in 18th place. He drives the ball about as far as Kevin Tway so he should be someone in this price range that could find the top 10 with a little luck.
    • Nick Watney ($6,900 DK – $8,800 FD) – Watney has only made three out of his last five cuts here but has a 7th place finish on this course. He was born in Cali and California kids seem to dominate this event and a good sign is that he has vastly improved his par 5 scoring from last year.
  • Risky (GPP)
    • Ryan Moore ($7,300 DK – $9,900 FD) – Moore isn’t very long off the tee which is kind of scary because it puts a lot more pressure on the rest of his game but last year he was 12th in SG: tee-to-green and he was 4th in scrambling. In an event where -10 can win it, being able to get to the green and grind out pars will be extremely crucial.
    • Harold Varner III ($7,200 DK – $9,000 FD) – These next five guys were all in the top 20 in driving distance last year besides Rodgers and Danny Lee (Rodgers was 34th and is 27th this year while Lee is much improved at 12th this season). Varner has missed two consecutive cuts here but is in much better form heading into this event than he has been in years past.
    • Keith Mitchell ($7,000 DK – $8,300 FD) – Mitchell’s driver isn’t as good as it has been over the last year but he is playing well lately and he made the cut last year at Torrey Pines in his only try at this event. If he dials it back up and the rest of his game keeps clicking (2nd in SG: tee-to-green this season) then he might surprise some people.
      • Danny Lee ($8,200 FD) – Danny is averaging 312.6 yards per drive this year which is good enough for 12th best this season while he was 149th last year. He’s got some experience here and has three top 25s this season including a 2nd place finish at the RSM.
      • Patrick Rodgers/Brendan Steele ($7,100 DK) – Steele pounds the ball and has a very solid track record here but has been up and down lately. Rodgers finished 4th here two years ago and in his last three events, sandwiched between two missed cuts, he has a 2nd place finish.

Dark Horses

  • Risky (GPP)
    • Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,200 DK – $8,600 FD) – one of my favorite value plays this week is the guy that’s built like everybody’s high school nose guard — Aphibarnrat. He randomly pops up out of nowhere with a top 5 but he is coming off of a missed cut in Abu Dhabi last week so that, mixed with jet lag, has me a little worried.
    • Sam Ryder ($6,700 DK – $8,600 FD) – I’ve been on Sam Ryder for a few weeks now and I think I’m gonna keep placing bets on him to win until he does — or until I go broke. He was 2nd on tour last season in GIR and has two top 5s this season already.
    • Cameron Davis ($6,600 DK – $7,900 FD) – Davis is driving the ball about 313 yards per drive this season and has three finishes of 28th or better since the start of the season. He made the cut here last year and will be looking to improve from his 58th place finish.
    • Trey Mullinax ($6,400 DK – $7,300 FD) – another guy with experience on this course is Mullinax who has made one of two cuts at Torrey Pines in the past two years. He can pipe it as well as anyone and was 2nd on tour in driving distance in 2018.
    • Wyndham Clark ($6,300 DK – $7,400 FD) – Clark is 10th in driving distance and 10th in par 5 scoring this year so if he can hold his approach game in check he could put up points on a course that doesn’t allow many scoring opportunities.
Mark Lee

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Detroit sports fan, also sufferer of seasonal depression (the two might be related). Avid golfer and former college baseball player. Would've been in the league if it weren't for my lack of ability. Accountant by day, fantasy sports guru by night.