Well, Week 10 is upon us and I have no idea where the first nine weeks have gone. Last week was rather weird. Two of my three WR’s plus my tight end totaled 19.5 FanDuel points together and my defense only had five points. However, I still cashed across the board in tournaments because of Cam, McCaffrey, Hunt, and Kamara. It just shows you how valuable running backs can be. Anyways, I’m really liking the plays this week. There are almost too many good plays – roster construction should dictate which ones we end up putting together. Let’s get to it.
Baker Mayfield – Baker has quietly produced three multi-touchdown games in a row and now has a date with the Falcons at home. The Falcons have allowed over 300 yards passing in six of their last seven games and gave up three or more touchdowns in five of those. Only the last two games have they held Eli Manning and Alex Smith to one touchdown each, despite both guys throwing for 300+. Not the cream of the crop by any means. Last week things looked a little different for the Browns, who finally started using my favorite play on this week’s slate. More on him later, but I’m sure you can guess who it is.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Fitzmagic show continues on. Despite getting blown out last week, he still scored 26.02 FanDuel points, throwing for four touchdowns. This week, he’ll face the Redskins. The only quarterback they’ve held in check over the past six games is once again, Eli Manning. This offense is built to score points and their defense is built to give up points. It’s the perfect combination from a fantasy perspective. Let’s just hope he doesn’t throw three picks in the first half and get yanked. If he doesn’t, it will likely be another 20+ fantasy point outing.
Kareem Hunt – Hunt has crept up to fantasy’s number three running back on the year. This week, he’ll face the Cardinals, who had allowed six teams to top 100 yards rushing and had allowed five in a row before holding the 49ers to 98 yards on the ground just before their bye week. The Chiefs should be able to control this one throughout and I think Hunt has another big day. He’s pricey at RB2 on FD and RB4 on DraftKings, but he’s worth it.
David Johnson – On the opposite side of this game, I really like David Johnson. Maybe I’m crazy here, but the Chiefs have been very bad against the run. The Cards are coming off their bye week, which gave Byron Leftwich plenty of time to really figure out how to use David Johnson like Bruce Arians had in the past. He touched the ball 20 times in the game just before the bye, with Leftwich calling the plays his first week on the job. I expect him to be heavily involved and he’s priced way down from where his talent level would have him priced. That price and talent, along with my hopes that Leftwich gets things figured out, gives me high expectations.
Duke Johnson Jr. – Now for my favorite play on the slate. I put him third so he’s hidden from those who don’t read all the way through. Anything that we can do to keep his ownership down will benefit all of us who play him. In all seriousness, he’s in a smash spot. After being paid millions in the off-season, the Browns refused to use him early in the season. Following the firing of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley, he was unleashed in Week 9. On deck is the one matchup we’ve targeted more than any this season. A pass catching running back versus the Falcons. Let me just give you some RB game logs against this defense:
There are some massive rushing and receiving games mixed in there. We know Duke won’t get much work in the running game, but I think he’ll likely see 8-10 targets, catching 6-8. With that many opportunities, he’ll have a good opportunity to find the end zone and tack on 60-80 yards. If he does as I expect, he’ll greatly exceed salary expectations.
Alvin Kamara – Kamara was a beast last week and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be the same in Week 10. Over the last six games, the Bengals have given up no fewer than 86 rushing yards, and have given up more than 111 rushing yards four times. That doesn’t count the big games they’ve given up to opposing backs in the receiving game. I like locking in high floor running backs and Kamara is exactly that.
Melvin Gordon – Gordon needed just 16 rushes last week against the Seahawks to top 113 yards rushing. In Week 10, he’ll face Oakland, who is an absolute tire fire. They are in full on tank mode and should put up little resistance here. If you throw out the anomaly game where the Raiders held the Dolphins to just 15 yards rushing on 11 carries, they have given up an average of 146 rushing yards per game in their other seven games. Gordon is as good a bet as anyone to top 100 yards rushing this week and should add some work in the passing game too.
Todd Gurley – I’m putting Gurley last, but simply because I shouldn’t even have to mention him. If you can afford him, he’s the top option every single week. He had his worst game of the season last week, scoring only 19.9 DK points. I like his chances to bounce back against the Seahawks, who just gave up 113 yards to Melvin Gordon on 16 carries. His price came down on both sites, so don’t be afraid to go back to him this week.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
Dion Lewis – Lewis has strongly grown on me through the week and into Sunday morning. He had the benefit of not getting a price bump because he played Monday night. The last two games, he’s been THE guy in the Titans backfield and if they have any chance of keeping up with the Patriots in this game. Lewis will need to have a big game. Also, don’t forget this is a revenge game for Lewis.
Tyler Boyd – A.J. Green is out this week, which will allow Boyd to step in the a WR1 role on this Bengals team. Facing the Saints in his first game as the go to guy should have him licking his chops. They are dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. The Saints have given up over 60 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers twice this year and they’ve allowed between 40 and 50 in each of their last three. Boyd should get peppered with plenty of targets and has a very high floor and ceiling this week. He is priced up, which is the only thing he has working against him.
Cooper Kupp – Kupp returned last week and showed no ill-effects from his multiple weeks off. I like his price on both sites. He’s been solid all season long and has a high ceiling the way he is used in the red zone. He’ll likely be in almost all of my builds on both sites, the same as last week.
Jarvis Landry – He continues to be very inefficient, but the volume is there and I’m hoping the offensive changes will benefit the way he is being used. You could make a case against him for Duke Johnson taking some of his targets away, but I think we’ll still see plenty of volume coming his way and he’s very cheap on both sites.
Maurice Harris – Harris had a massive game in Week 9 at a near minimum price. With Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder out, Harris manned the slot for most of the game and turned in a 10-124-0 line on 12 targets. With Crowder out and Thompson looking doubtful this week, he should be in for plenty of targets again at a very cheap price. The Redskins lost Paul Richardson in Week 9 as well, opening up even more targets. I’ll have a lot of exposure, possibly using the lock button on DraftKings.
Davante Adams – If there is one stable thing in this Green Bay offense, it’s that Aaron Rodgers is going to throw the ball to Adams. Adams has at least five catches AND 81 yards and/or a touchdown in every game this season. In simpler terms he hasn’t had fewer than five catches any game this year. And if we throw out his 8-81-0 game, he’s had 100 yards and/or a touchdown in every other game. His floor is as solid as anyone and his ceiling is up there as well.
Adam Humphries – I’ve been keeping my eye on this, and I’m beginning to think it’s real. Humphries has seen nine, 10, and eight targets over the past three weeks, respectively. He also has 76 or more receiving yards in three of his last four, to go along with the two touchdowns he caught last week. He’s another cheap WR option that can be paired with Fitzpatrick.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
Josh Gordon – All signs point to Mount Gordon exploding this week! Is that a thing? Can we make it a thing? Maybe not, but I like it. Anyways, Gordon has slowly been more and more involved in this offense. We know how explosive he is when at full speed. Let us not forget that a few short years back Gordon was one of the top receivers in the league. And I don’t mean top 10, we’re talking arguably to three. With Gronk out, there will be a few more targets to go around and we know from the past that the Patriots back up tight ends don’t really get much work in the pass game (Fire up Dwayne Allen now, as he’ll score two touchdowns). I really like Gordon’s price in relation to his upside and will be firing him up.
O.J. Howard – Howard is quietly becoming one of the most consistent tight ends of the season after guys like Gronk and Jordan Reed have been very disappointing for a number of reasons. He has great chemistry with Fitzpatrick and he’s the perfect mix of affordable with the upside to lead the slate in scoring at the position. The Redskins have been pretty good against tight ends on paper, but if you truly look at who they’ve faced, it’s not impressive. We’re missing some top tight ends from the main slate this week, and there isn’t much to like among the guys who are playing, which has me strongly considering locking in Howard.
Trey Burton – I hate recommending players against my favorite team, but my gut tells me that Burton is going to have a nice week. I’ve seen the Lions give up some big plays to the position against guys way less talented than Burton. I’m not sure I’ll go here because it would be hard to root for him to succeed, but don’t be afraid to play Burton.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
Jimmy Graham – More and more I’m finding myself on Graham. I’m not crazy about any one tight end this week and I’m actually considering fully punting tight end. I mean like near min price on both sites. I’m not going to recommend anyone in that range because if I do roster someone that cheap, I’ll be fully aware that I may take a goose egg. Back to Graham. He kind of just fits in most of my lineups at his price. He’s really fairly priced and this is a sneaky good matchup against the Dolphins. They don’t get up a ton of yards to the position, but they are prone to touchdowns. Prior to last week, they had allowed five touchdowns to tight ends in their past three games. To no one’s surprise, the Jets didn’t have a tight end score last week against the Dolphins, but they did surprisingly catch six balls for 74 yards. The main thing I’m looking at from my tight end is a touchdown, and Graham is as good a bet as anyone not named Kelce to cross the goal line.
New England Patriots – I like the Patriots against the Titans. The Titans played well on Monday night against Dallas, and this is the perfect regression spot. This offense is so puny and I think the Patriots, especially at their price on DraftKings, make for a good play. They’ve had some big fantasy games against weak opposing offenses.
Los Angeles Chargers – If you can afford them, the Chargers are playing good football on the defense, and they get the aforementioned Raiders, who are in full-blown tank mode, whether by choice or not.
New York Jets – The Jets are at home against the Bills, which means they’re in play. On top of that, Sam Darnold is likely out this week, meaning this defense may not have so many short fields to work against, as Josh McCown should do a better job taking care of the ball.
That’s it for this week. If you have any input about what you like or don’t like, feel free to let me know on twitter @mrclutchdfs or in the comment section below. Best of luck this weekend!
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