It doesn’t seem possible that it’s already Week 8, and the mid point of the season is knocking on the door. We’re starting to have a solid sample size (by NFL standards) for each team, to be able to better judge things like tendencies. That should help us have a strong finish in our DFS world down the home stretch of the season. If you’re a tourney player, it just takes one big week to make your entire NFL season. I’ll do my best to find the plays to maximize that possibility each week.
With that said, I’m short on time this week so I’m just going to list my plays along with a short snippet for each. Rest assured though, while the write up is shorter, my research process was not compromised. However, next week I have a work priority that will keep me from doing a write up. I say now that I will take the week off, but I’m sure I’ll throw something together Saturday and Sunday morning. Therefore, if you have any questions, feel free to ask me on Twitter. Now let’s get to this week’s plays.
Andrew Luck – Luck is flinging the ball a lot – before last week that is, when he threw four touchdowns against the Bills on only 23 attempts. This Raiders team is a dumpster fire, and I think Luck has a chance to be the top scoring QB of the week.
Jameis Winston – Winston is a fantasy machine. Sure, he’s turning it over a lot, but that’s sometimes a good thing for fantasy purposes. We want our starting QB to be in a shootout, and giving the other team the ball a couple times in between successful drives gives them more opportunities to keep up. He also has a solid rushing floor.
Aaron Rodgers – Coming off the bye against the Rams, Rodgers will be relied on to keep his team in the game. He’ll likely keep them close, which means he should score plenty of fantasy points. I really like him on Draftkings.
Todd Gurley – Gurley is playing football Sunday, so lock him in and build the rest around him.
Kareem Hunt – The Broncos continue to be gashed by the run, and Hunt is coming off of his best stretch of the season. You either lock him in next to Gurley, or if you decide to fade Gurley, you lock him in as your RB1.
James Conner – I really want to figure out a way to play Conner with the two guys above. He should be heavily involved and a multi touchdown game is squarely in the realm of possibilities here. On a week there is a lot of running back value, I think it’s somewhat contrarian to jam in these guys and find value elsewhere.
Marlon Mack – The Raiders have been bad all around, and Mack’s arrow is pointing upward. He should see 20+ touches and he’s very fairly priced on both sites for that type of workload. UPDATE: Mack showed up on the injury report late and is questionable. My interest has went down.
Raheem Mostert – This guy has looked great in limited action so far, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. If Matt Breida is out this week I think you lock in Mostert against the absolute worst rush defense, the Arizona Cardinals. Keep an eye on the injury news here.
David Johnson – I am expecting a new DJ now with Byron Leftwich running this offense. He is a disciple of Bruce Arians, so you can bet that he’s on the phone with him to get some help figuring out how to get more out of DJ. I don’t mind taking the savings down to him off of one of my main three guys above.
**FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATES**
Phillip Lindsay – With Royce Freeman officially ruled out, Lindsay has the opportunity to have a big day at an affordable price. My biggest concern is that Week 7 repeats itself and the Chiefs dominate the game, forcing the Broncos to go pass heavy. If that’s the case, I could see him having a sub-par game. However, if the game stays within reach, Lindsay should see 15-20 carries with a few targets and his explosiveness could help produce a huge day!
Kerryon Johnson – Theo Riddick is out again, meaning Johnson should be in line for 16ish carries and a couple targets. He has looked exceptional so far this year and he’s another guy in that mid range that could have a big game.
Davante Adams – Rodgers loves throwing the ball to Adams and he’s a massive red zone threat. I’m expecting Green Bay to score some points an not via running the ball. Therefore, there’s a very good chance that Adams finds the end zone with plenty of yards to go with it.
Jermaine Kearse – He was a total flop last week and killed my lineups. You have to be brave to go back here, but I think you can at his price. Quincy Enunwa is still out and Robby Anderson is looking like he may not play. Terrell Pryor is no longer on the team. That leaves Kearse as the only guy Sam Darnold has any chemistry with, and I think he goes back to him this week.
Christian Kirk – I might be a bit too high on the Cardinals offense, but I just think we’re going to see a different product on the field this week. There are still going to be some growing pains with Josh Rosen, but he has shown rapport with Kirk. He has topped double digit FanDuel points in three of the last five weeks and he only scored one touchdown in that time. He’s a value option to pair with our high priced running backs.
Tyler Boyd – The Bucs are VERY bad against slot wide receivers… like VERY bad. According the Pro Football Focus, the Bucs give up 10 more points to slot receivers than the next worst team in the league. Boyd is a little pricey on DK, but I like him on FD a lot.
Michael Crabtree – Crabtree continues to see plenty of volume and comes in at a fair price. He’s another value option I’m considering.
David Njoku – I actually like the Steelers defense, which you’ll see below. However, this is a funnel spot to Njoku. The Steelers have given up at least nine catches AND 85 yards to tight ends in three of the last four weeks. He’ll continue to get plenty of targets and is still affordable.
O.J. Howard – You can make a case for Howard on DK, where he is $700 cheaper than Njoku. The Bengals have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
C.J. Uzomah – If you need to save even a bit more, I think you can go down to Uzomah. He’s a red zone threat and the only tight end left standing in Cinci.
**Friday Night Update**
Robert Woods – With Cooper Kupp missing again Woods should run quite a few routes out of the slot again. Last week the Rams didn’t need to do much through the air. Woods caught five balls on seven targets for 78 yards, which all led the team. Against Aaron Rodgers, the Rams should do more through the air. Woods might be my favorite wide receiver play on both sites due to price and ceiling.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Baker Mayfield isn’t against giving the ball to the defense, and he’s getting sacked a ton. The Steelers are getting a lot of pressure and that bodes well for opportunity. They are cheap on both sites, and I think they’re my lock button defense on both sites as well. A Perfect correlation play with Conner.
That’s it for this week. As I mentioned before, I will be adjusting the format as we go, so if you have any input about what you like or don’t like, feel free to let me know on twitter @mrclutchdfs. Best of luck this weekend!
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