We are starting to hit “losing trades” season – the time of year where bad teams have to settle and make a deal because they need to avoid bye weeks. Maybe they will take a hit to give up Michael Thomas because they need a win this week.
This is going to keep happening as the weeks roll on. Teams at 1-4 still have a sliver of hope, but once teams get to five or six losses the panic sets in more where even if I royally miss on this trade it doesn’t matter because if I don’t win out, it is over anyway.
If you are struggling, start looking at when your players go on bye, maybe try to trade your bye week players to the person you play that week. Not only do you make a deal that might help you, you deal those bye week issue to your opponent.
- Keenan Allen
Allen is getting a ton of targets, 27% target share and 27% of the air yards. His target share hasn’t been below 23% this season. The offense is always going to be pretty pass heavy
What has hurt Allen to this point is how effective Melvin Gordon has been in the red zone. Not only is Gordon scoring his touchdowns on the ground, like expected, he is taking away some targets that might have typically gone Allen’s way and turned those into scores.
- Marvin Jones
Jones has seen an overall dip in his production from last season, but it hasn’t been as big as one might think. Last season Jones was targeted 19% of the time; it is down to 17% of the time this season. Jones had 36% of the Lions air yards last season, down to 32% this season.
It isn’t even that he just has a large share of the air yards; Jones ranks 14th in the league in total air yards. Jones has been the number one receiver in Detroit’s offense, leading receivers with 314 snaps – followed by Golladay with 303 and Tate with 267. Still, Jones has yet to top 70 yards or have five catches in a game this season.
His usage in the offense makes me want Jones as one of the many in the WR3 conversation. I wouldn’t be overly shocked if someone in your league even drops him as the Lions head into their bye week.
- John Brown
The leader in air yards this season. I think people are still viewing Brown in the WR3 conversation – not a weekly starter, but I think Brown can be a WR2 rest of season.
Brown is definitely an outlier among receivers. His 19.8 aDOT is more than four full yards ahead of the next receiver that has at least 28 targets.
I would try to buy Brown for a bigger name WR that has disappointed to this point. Maybe Amari Cooper, Larry Fitzgerald, or Michael Crabtree.
- Alvin Kamara
Well, if you bought before last weeks game you didn’t buy low enough. I don’t need to get into a ton of detail here, but after the Monday night game you HAVE to check in on Kamara. Island games almost always lead to overreactions.
- Javorius Allen
It may not really be low, but I would want Allen as the back in the Ravens offense at this point. This is not an endorsement of Allen’s skills; I don’t think he is more than an average NFL running back, but I don’t really think Alex Collins is special either. Usage is in favor of Allen. He is the primary passing downs back and splits goal line work pretty evenly.
Collins is going to get the between the 20s work and the boring end of game 10 carries for 40 yards with maybe a catch. Although Allen fumbled last week, Collins has big fumbling issues, and when the Ravens get to “run the clock out mode” and up two scores, it wouldn’t shock me if that guy ended up being Allen with Collins ball security issues.
- Matt Breida
I really don’t like buying in-season injury guys, we never know what the situation is (see Leonard Fournette). But man Breida looked like he was on the verge of a true breakout game Sunday before getting hurt.
If I was trading for Breida I would do it with the idea that I won’t be starting him until week 9. Breida was just a low-end RB2 on a weekly basis before injury, so the price, while injured, shouldn’t be very high. Even if his role becomes limited once he returns I think he will be a 15-18 touch player, and that is enough with his play making ability.
- Doug Baldwin
He played a lot Sunday, but the low volume pass offense killed his production. I don’t think his disappointing game had anything to do with his health though.
I am betting most Baldwin owners are panicking, and while the Seahawks want a low volume passing offense, that won’t be possible every week. The fact that they were able to stay so close with the Rams was surprising enough. Baldwin will have better days. Maybe he isn’t borderline WR1/2, but I would still call him a WR2 rest of season.
- Isaiah Crowell – His huge game creates a nice sell opportunity. The usage just isn’t there.
- Austin Ekeler – If you don’t own Gordon then sell. This just isn’t sustainable.
- Tyler Lockett – If you still own him after Doug Baldwin came back, I think this is your only chance to get anything for him. The passing offense is nonexistent as the Seahawks are planning to run, run, and run some more. Lockett is a big play threat, but if he doesn’t connect on a deep ball or two you are getting nothing.
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