START OR SIT: WEEK 5

START

QUARTERBACK

MATTHEW RYAN (HA HA FOOLED YOU), ATLANTA FALCONS @ Pittsburgh Steelers
23.8 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Matt Ryan is finally airing it out under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and developing a nice repore’ with rookie Calvin Ridley.  Julio Jones still can’t catch touchdowns or get red zone looks, but still possesses a 48% target share and tied for 6th in the NFL for total targets.  The Steelers Defense is allowing almost 28 points per game to opposing QBs, which is 2nd most in the NFL and the 5th most yardage in the league.  Look for Julio to have the big day in this one, as he lines up across from Artie Burns, who is undersized and has been burned to the tune off 15 targets on 12 catches for 220 yards and 3 TDs (158.3 QB Rating against).  Big day for Matty Ice

BIG BEN, PARLIAMENT, PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Atlanta Falcons
25.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Something is clearly wrong with Antonio Brown this year.  He currently has a 40% target share (down from 43% last season), and his 9.4 yards per catch is a career low.  He is also running 10.5 more receiving routes per game than last season and his production has suffered.  But Juju has picked up the slack in his absence and will continue to man the slot this week against a porous Atlanta Falcons defense.  Brian Poole has covered 116 routes in the slot this season.  He has been targeted 21 times resulting in 17 catches for 156 yards and 3 scores: 137.2 QB Rating allowed.  Atlanta is allowing 25.2 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which is the 4th highest mark in the NFL.  Roethlisberger is home this week and coming off a touch 17 point performance Week 4 to the Ravens.  He should air it out this week.

ALEX SMITH, WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ New Orleans Saints
22.4 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Saints can’t stop anybody.  They are allowing 27.9 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which is tied for 2nd most in the NFL and the 6th most yardage in the league to opposing QBs.  They are also 9th in most running yards allowed to opposing QBs and Smith has been known to run for a few.  Alex Smith has only targeted his wide receivers 40 times this season, which is dead last in the NFL, but could be in for 250+ yards and 2 TDs this week.

JOSH ROSEN, ARIZONA CARDINALS @ San Francisco 49ers
15.5 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

I know it’s early, but I have a feeling this could be the game that gets Josh Rosen going.  He may be getting Larry Fitzgerald back and is quickly developing a repore with rookie Christian Kirk, who had 5 targets in Week 4. The 49ers defense is allowing 23 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and Rosen may get comfortable in this one.

BLAKE BORTLES, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ Kansas City Chiefs
22.1 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

No Leonard Fournette means Bortles is more productive in the pass game.  Dede Westbrook is currently running 87% of his snaps from the slot this season.  He was targeted 13 times in Week 4 and was targeted on 33% of his snaps when lined up in the slot (3rd most in the league).  The Chiefs defense is allowing 24.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, which is 5th in the league.  They are also allowing the 3rd most yardage to competitor play callers.  Bortles could be a quality value play this week.

RUNNING BACK

JAMES CONNER, PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs. Atlanta Falcons
18.2 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

It’s really no secret by now.  The Falcons Defense is terrible against pass catching running backs, allowing 310 receiving yards this season (4th most in the NFL).  Atlanta also have the most targets against (55) and receptions allowed (42) in the NFL.  Conner is being targeted 5.5 times per game this season and continues to be heavily involved in this offense while Le’Veon Bell is away.  He should be in for a big day on Sunday.

MATT BREIDA, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS vs. Arizona Cardinals
9.5 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Matt Breida played 63% of the total offensive snaps in Week 4, which was up from 53% in Week 3 and 39% in Week 2.  He also received 71% of the running back touches in Week 4 and is running more routes in the passing game.  CJ Beathard has a history of dumping it off to his running back and Breida may see his target share drastically increase in this one.  He is also averaging 7.6 yards per carry (1st in the NFL).  The Arizona Cardinals are allowing 31.8 fantasy points per game, which is the most in the NFL and 520 total rush yards, which is 2nd most in the league.  He could be a great flex option this week who could exceed his projected point total by a bunch.

AARON JONES, GREEN BAY PACKERS @ Detroit Lions
9.8 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

This should be the game where Aaron Jones takes over primary backfield duties in Green Bay with Jamaal Williams being completely ineffective in both the run and pass game.  Jones is averaging 6.3 yards per carry, to Williams 3.4 YPC.  Jones has already avoided 8 tackles, while Williams has 0.  Jones is clearly the more elusive back, but this won’t be a time share.  The Detroit Lions are allowing 28.2 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs (3rd most in the league) and 624 rushing yards, which is the most in the NFL, by 100 total yards.  This could be his big debut.

WIDE RECEIVER

AMARI COOPER, OAKLAND RAIDERS @ Los Angeles Chargers
10.75 FANTASY POINTS

The Los Angeles Chargers defense is getting burned for 31.6 fantasy points per game, which is the 4th most in the NFL.  Amari Cooper is coming off of a 22 point fantasy performance last week against the Browns, where he was targeted 11 times.  But an old friend is lurking.  Amari Cooper versus Casey Hayward, CB LAR last 3 games in shadow coverage (I stole this off twitter):

  • 4 Targets on 1 Rec, 11 Yards, 0 TD on 76% Routes Shadowed
  • 1 Target on 1 Reception, 7 Yards, 0 TD on 80% Routes Shadowed
  • 3 Targets on 1 Reception, 28 Yards, 0 TD on 84% Routes Shadowed

Even though he is solid historically against Cooper, Hayward is getting a lot of run this season, allowing a 140.8 QB Rating to opposing Wide Receivers.  People are fading Amari Cooper, but In 2 games this season Cooper is averaging 19 fantasy points on 10.5 targets.  His other 2 games were against an elite Los Angeles Rams secondary and an up and coming Miami Dolphins coverage unit led by Xavien Howard. Amari Cooper should be a good value play Week 5.

STEFON DIGGS, MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ Philadelphia Eagles
12.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Diggs is seeing 12.6 targets per game in his last 3 outings.  He will square off against Jalen Mills in this one, who is not playing well.  He has been targeted 27 times for 20 receptions 276 yards and 1 TD (118.8 QB Rating allowed). The Eagles defense is allowing 29.7 fantasy points per game this season – 6th highest in the league.  This is the perfect game for the Vikings.  They can’t run the ball, which is the defenses strength, so they will have to challenge them in the air, which they are having a hard time defending.  Diggs should see the bulk of the target share this week and is a solid play in DFS.

TIGHT END

AUSTIN HOOPER, ATLANTA FALCONS @ Pittsburgh Steelers
7.10 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Steelers defense is currently allowing 13.0 fantasy points per game to opposing Tight Ends.  Hooper is being asked to run more routes and is getting acclimated to this offense.  With the state of the Tight End position in despair right now, Hooper could become a sigh of relief in the coming weeks.  Start him if your desperate.

RICKY SEALS-JONES, ARIZONA CARDINALS @ San Franciso 49ers
7.0 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Again, the state of Tight End position in despair so find volume where you can.  Ricky Seals-Jones has run the second most receiving routes of all players on his team this season (114 routes run) and is only second on his team to Chad Williams (whoever that is) who has 116 routes run.  Rookie Quarterbacks tend to have soft spots for big athletic tight ends, and Rosen might make Seals-Jones his comfort blanket.  He is only being targeted 4.7 times per game, but with the reigns handed over to Rosen, this might be bound to change quickly.

The 49ers defense is allowing 11.4 fantasy points per game to opposing Tight Ends (5th most in the NFL) and have allowed 4 TDs, which is tied for 1st in the league.  He has potential for 50 total yards and 1 TD.

SIT

QUARTERBACK

DREW BREES: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS vs. Washington Redskins
23.3 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

This is probably a pretty dumb one and no one would ever listen, but the Redskins are playing pretty solid defense this season.  They held Green Bay to 17 total points Week 3 and have kept the fantasy production pretty minimal this season:

  • 4 Fantasy points per game to Opposing QBs (2nd lowest in NFL)
  • 597 Passing Yards Allowed (1st in NFL)
  • 127 Receiving Yards to Running Backs (8th lowest in the NFL)

Although Josh Norman is having a down season (14 Targ for 10/152/1) allowing a 130.7 QB Rating, this secondary is pretty solid with second year corner Fabian Moreau leading the way with an under the radar performance so far (14 targets 6 catches 35 yards 50.3 QB Rating allowed).  They are even holding pass catching running backs in check and are 8th in lowest yardage allowed.  You may not be able to stop Kamara, but Michael Thomas showed that he was human last week against a stout Giants secondary with 4 catches on 4 targets for 47  yards.  Don’t expect elite production from Brees this week and don’t be surprised if he doesn’t throw for 2 scores.

ANDY DALTON: CINCINNATI BENGALS vs Miami Dolphins
20.7 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Miami Defense is allowing 12.6 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs which is the 4th lowest in the NFL.  The Miami secondary, with the exception of last week’s debacle against the New England Patriots, is a top-tier group with 2 lock down cover corners (Xavien Rhodes and Bobby McCain).  Tyler Boyd may have a big day, but AJ Green will line up across from Xavien Rhodes and may be in for a long day.

RUNNING BACK

DALVIN COOK/LATAVIUS MURRAY: MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ Philadelphia Eagles
6.6 / 6.3 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Minnesota Vikings Offensive Line is getting manhandled this season, allowing 81 total pressures and only 3.5 yards per carry.  The Philadelphia Eagles are only allowing 9.7 fantasy points per game this season to opposing running backs, which is 2nd lowest in the NFL.  The defensive line should be in the backfield for most of the day, disrupting this backfield leaving them grinding for yardage.  Dalvin Cook might be on a limited snap count and Latavius Murray has been ineffective.  Don’t take the chance on this backfield this week.

LESEAN MCCOY: BUFFALO BILLS vs. Tennessee Titans
10.8 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

The Tennessee Titans Defense is allowing 12.0 fantasy points per game this season, which is the 4th lowest in the NFL.  McCoy is only averaging 7 carries  and 4.3 targets per game this season.  He has only one game with more than 5 fantasy points (10 FAN PTS Week 2) and has been playing from behind a lot this season.  The Titans are solid against the run and should shut down this backfield.

WIDE RECEIVER

DEVIN FUNCHESS: CAROLINA PANTHERS vs. New York Giants
11.0 PROJECTED FANTASY POINTS

Devin Funchess is only being targeted 7.0 times per game this season and is becoming touch down dependent.  The Giants Defense is allowing 13.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, which is the best mark in the NFL this season.  Cam may be forced to take off and run more this week and should be a quiet day for the Panthers passing attack.  I would sit him if you have better options.

 

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Matt Bishop

Written by 

Matt Bishop is a graduate of Rider University and currently works as a Project Manager for an Electrical Supply Distributor. He lives in North NJ with his wife and 2 children and is a die-hard Philadelphia Eagles and Philadelphia Phillies fan. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1997 and Fantasy Baseball since 2003. He recently discovered Fangraphs and his obsession for baseball metrics and how they can be used to draft a championship caliber team.

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