TRADE BAIT: Touch and Target Leaders through WEEK 4

DION LEWIS:

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Dion Lewis 71% 58% 48% 68%
Derrick Henry 29% 42% 52% 39%
  • Out-snaping Derek Henry 161-105
  • Played 68% of the offensive snaps, to Henry’s 39% in Week 4.
  • Lewis has run 86 routes (21 targets), which is 14th in the NFL amongst RBs. Henry has 30 routes (4 targets).
  • Titan O-Line is Top 10 most efficient this season (88.1%) and top 5 in least pressures allowed (28).

Don’t forget how good Lewis was down the stretch last season (65 Touches and 51 Fan Pts Wk 16 & 17) and how great he could be behind a solid offensive line, like the Titans.  The Titans are a run first offense and Lewis should be on display.  He could become a solid RB 2 rest of season and could be a cheap trade target for a player who still has upside.

CARLOS HYDE:

  • 87 Touches (4th in NFL)
  • 83 Carries (1st in NFL)
  • 285 Yards (6th in the NFL)
  • 3.4 Yards per Carry (26th in NFL)
  • 6 Targets (48th in NFL) 4 Receptions (51st in NFL)

The Browns offensive line has been tough this season.  They currently rank 8th in overall efficiency (88.3%) and 11th in least pressures allowed (35), but his 3.4 yards per carry proves he’s grinding for yardage.  This much volume strictly in the run game can not bode well for a veteran and a player with an injury history.

NICK CHUBB:

Flashed his elusive potential last week with 3 carries for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Now I know we can’t get excited for this big play fantasy production, but it may be time to start fading Hyde as Chubb will start to see more involvement.  If you’re the Hyde owner, I would try to acquire Chubb if you don’t already have him and he’s not available on the waiver wire.  The young rookie could be a league winner behind a good line with fresh leagues when Hyde eventually does break down.  It’s also Baker Mania, so that could only help.

COREY DAVIS:

  • 39 targets (9th in NFL)
  • 13 Targets Week 1
  • 15 Targets Week 4

Davis has only run 125 routes in the passing game (51st in NFL), but is Top 12 in Yards per Route Run (2.50) and is being targeted on 31.2% of his total snaps, which is 1st in the NFL.  The graphic says he’s in some elite company.

Through Week 4 and only 1 ½  games of a healthy Marcus Mariota – Tennessee is only passing 52% of the time, which is 31st in the league.  Corey Davis has made the most of his limited opportunities and could be in for a massive season with Mariota fully healthy and sleeper rookie Taywan Taylor (8% owned), who accounted for 63% of the offensive snaps Week 4, piling up 9 Targets.

Davis has the potential to be a High End WR 2 in an offense that has historically been run heavy (Bottom 10 Team Passing % since 2016).  He could be a relatively cheap, season-long return on investment.  Let’s hope Mike Vrabel and Matt LaFleur will free Corey Davis in Nashville.

COOPER KUPP:

  • 3 NFL Passer Rating when Targeted (1st in NFL)
  • 10 Red Zone Targets (4th in the NFL)
  • 26 Targets from the Slot (4th in NFL)
  • Targeted on 26.3% of snaps from the Slot (2nd in NFL)

With all this slot usage, he is still averaging 14.5 yards per catch, which is 10th in the NFL among all wide receivers.  He has the 6th most fantasy points in the NFL and is 2nd only to Michael Thomas for Fantasy Points per Opportunity.  I’ve been very high on Kupp since my pre-season sleepers, breakouts and busts article – please click, it’s very good.

I’m really not sure what the market price for Kupp is right now, but you may still be able to grab him for a RB 3 or an underperforming running back like Kenyan Drake paired with a WR3.  I think this kid has massive upside and is still blooming in this high-powered Rams offense.  I know this is no secret and nowhere near a hot take, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in LA.  Owners get scared off by the presence of Robert Woods (97% OFF snaps) and Brandin Cooks (97% OFF snaps), but Kupp (98% OFF snaps) is better than both of them and will finish the year as a Top 10 Fantasy Wide Receiver. 

If you are desperate for receiver help and maybe have some running back depth to spare, Kupp could be High End WR 2 rest of season with potential for more.

 

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Matt Bishop

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Matt Bishop is a graduate of Rider University and currently works as a Project Manager for an Electrical Supply Distributor. He lives in North NJ with his wife and 2 children and is a die-hard Philadelphia Eagles and Philadelphia Phillies fan. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1997 and Fantasy Baseball since 2003. He recently discovered Fangraphs and his obsession for baseball metrics and how they can be used to draft a championship caliber team.

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