NFL Buy and Sell: Week 2

Two data points – meaning we now have two reasons to panic or two reasons to be happy. The week-one issues do tend to incite panic, but a second week of bad production this early with a potential 0-2 team and we begin second guessing ourselves.

“Let me dump this guy while he still has some draft day value attached to his name”

This is how a buyer’s market is created.

The comparison is made all the time, but the fantasy trade market is no different than the stock market. Even if you don’t necessarily love something when you see it at a big discount or bottom dollar price, you are more willing to jump in because you know, or have a good reason to assume, things will be better and you can make a profit later.

If you keep playing the buy-low, sell-high game you are going to miss sometimes – it is inevitable. Some situations just don’t get better. But if you follow the market trends and buy that stock at the right time – that’s how championship teams are created.

BUY

  • David Johnson

Johnson is a dynamic player on a bad team in a bad offensive system. This really feels like 2016 Todd Gurley, but at the same time, what if it is just two games.

I own David Johnson in one league and I am really wondering if it is time to get out, but I only would if I can get first round value, which I don’t know if you will. That being said, I think that means it is the time to buy.

The Cardinals haven’t used Johnson in the way that made him the top player back in 2016. Maybe they just never use him that way; that would really suck, but hopefully things change. The team goes to Rosen and things get better.

Right now with Johnson, bet on the talent and on the touches he should get. The offense has been abysmal to say it nicely, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some scapegoat firings on the offensive side of the coaching staff coming up in Arizona if things stay this way.

Literally as I write this I get news that they are going to run him out of the slot more, so hopefully that changes things.

I think you can get him as an RB2 right now, and that is a worst case scenario to me rest of season. If you can buy at worst case value, you have plenty of best case scenario value to profit.

  • Julio Jones

The “Julio can’t score touchdowns so I am not taking him early” crowd chirps with every passing week he doesn’t score.

There is a decent chance the Julio owner didn’t buy that anyway – hence the reason they drafted him, but maybe things have changed and the belief of “he has to score touchdowns” have started to worry said owner a little bit.

There isn’t much I can say here that you don’t already know about Julio. The touchdown angle is an easy one to play in the trade negotiations if you make a run for him.

  • Robert Woods

Woods feels like the Rams receiver no one wants. Brandin Cooks is the obvious big play guy and Cooper Kupp is the safe slot guy if you want a piece of the offense. Then there is the “well, they can’t feed that many mouths” logic.

In week one Woods barely missed a couple big plays that had they connected he isn’t a buy-low. You probably don’t want Woods as an every week starter, but the byes are coming and he will be an under the radar trade target to help you through the middle of the season.

  • Odell Beckham Jr.

Nothing like the island games to get some overreaction. Saquan Barkley, who also might be a buy low if people are panicking about the Giants line and his lack of rushing yards, gobbled up a ton of underneath targets while OBJ got next to nothing.

The island games are the best targets because most people see with their own eyes someone not being involved and panic or get angry as their players do nothing.

Like with Julio, I don’t need to say much here. OBJ is a stud; don’t overthink this.

  • LeSean McCoy

McCoy shows up again. He is hurt so watch how you buy. Even if he does play he gets a tough matchup with the Vikings where he could be done by halftime.

Week two was a better showing than week one for the Bills offense, but McCoy was vultured at the goal line.

At this point any McCoy owner is panicking and you might be able to get him for a bench running back, or a bench back plus a bench receiver. The price is so low that I can’t help but to buy everywhere. If you want you can probably wait a week and the price will be lower.

  • Jordan Howard

We were really excited about that new look Bears offense, for a half, and Howard was looking like a great grab. Then a lot of nothing. He is splitting a ton of snaps with Tarik Cohen, more than I would like to see even if I don’t own him, but Howard is still going to be the guy who gets the ball in running situations.

Cohen is likely going to stay in his 8 or so touch area, and that doesn’t make Howard a stay away. Very few running backs get 80 plus percent of the backfield touches. This is also an island game play. Catch a little theme?

  • Kenyan Drake

Frank Gore has not gone away (insert sarcastic shocked face here).

If I told you preseason Drake was going to get 20 touches a game you would have been really excited, but at the same time you probably would not believe it. Now 15 touches a game, that you could probably get behind, and that is what he is getting now.

Drake has more talent than Gore at this stage of their careers, so there will be some opportunity for more work if/when Drake blows up.

This is 2018 – a RB2 doesn’t get 20 plus touches per game anymore, they get 15. Drake has gotten four targets in each of his first two games too and averaged 5.6 once he took over last season. Take out his outlier 11 target game and it was still 4.25 targets per game.

Drake is a solid floor RB2 with a ceiling for more.

SELL

  • Patrick Mahomes – He is a budding star, but ANY time I can get something for a quarterback I do it. I have seen trades out there where Mahomes is fetching first three round type value.
  • Austin Ekeler – I think how much he is being used is getting blown out of proportion a bit. The 11 carries came in a blowout where Melvin Gordon left with an injury.
  • Josh Gordon – There is a ton of upside here. But mid-season receiver trades plus he is still nursing a hamstring injury. It might be 2-3 weeks before we know if this will be gold or not. Unless he goes off early, his value will never be higher than now because of the hope.

 

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Andy Germani

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I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

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