A huge 15 game slate on the docket tonight. There’s a lot of matchups to sift through as well as pitching options in the high, mid, and low tier that are worth a look today on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Ownership should be pretty spread out, so there’s no reason to fade a guy you love based on that. However, there may be a low-priced arm that will garner more ownership than anyone in his price range thus far this season.
I’m going to fade Coors today on the offensive side and hope for a low scoring affair.
There seems to be some storms in Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Colorado that may cause delays throughout. It’s still early as of this writing, but be sure to check those areas if you’re using arms or stacking any of those games.
Patrick Corbin (10,800 FD /$11,900 DK) vs LAA
Corbin has been awesome this year and has amassed 43 or more FD points in 4 of his last 5, reaching 50 in two of them. The Angels don’t walk at all vs LHP (4.6%, 30th in MLB) but they also have not been striking out, with only a 16.2% K rate since the start of August. They are middle of the pack in terms of production vs LHP but none of this is enough to keep me away from Corbin. He’s a top 5 pitcher in baseball in terms of Contact% (2nd) and swinging strike rate (3rd). He’s making guys miss pitches outside the zone as well as anyone in the game. He’s the highest priced guy on the board but it’s still not as high as the elite guys, where he may be headed with another 50 point showing tonight. All systems go with Corbin tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka ($10,200 FD / $10,200 DK) @ MIA
Tanaka’s Achilles heel has been home runs and walks this season. The good news tonight? MIA is 28th in BB% at 5.9% vs RHP since the start of August as well as 29th in both SLG% and ISO. It’s the matchup we’ve been waiting for with a like Tanaka. The Marlins don’t strike out much as they are 7th with a 19.9% K rate vs RHP since the start of August. That doesn’t matter as much, however, when going against a guy who’s swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) is the highest in baseball since he entered the league. It’s a bit down this year but he’s still 13th in SwStr% among SP with 100 IP. The Yanks should supply plenty of runs for Tanaka to get the W, it’s just a matter of how many Ks he can rack up before he gets to 100 pitches. Hopefully 6 innings worth.
Blake Snell ($9,600 FD / $11,500 DK) vs KAN
Kansas City is in the bottom 4 of all of baseball in almost every offensive metric vs LHP since the start of August. I’m not going to got through them all but the Royals aren’t good. They’re striking out 23% of the time vs LHP since the month began. The ONLY question here is; how long is Snell’s leash? He threw 47 pitches in 5 perfect innings his first game back vs TOR, followed by 76 pitches in 5 two-hit innings vs the Yankees. That amounts to 2 hits, 1 BB, 12 Ks in his last 123 pitches.
If he can get through 6 IP with what I’m assuming is going to be a 90 pitch limit tonight, he should return value. If he walks guys he won’t go more than 5. Hopefully, enough people will be concerned about the pitch count to go elsewhere and keep his ownership way down. Great spot for Snell tonight. If any talk of a pitch count does arise before game time, I’d say he’s a fade on DK where his price tag is just too high for the risk of being pulled after 5.
Jose Berrios ($9,100 FD / $10,900 DK) @ CWS
* There may be weather concerns here tonight so keep an eye out.
Berrios absolutely dominated the White Sox in the two outings he’s faced them at home, averaging 8 innings with double-digit Ks in both. He was the opposite when he took them on in Chicago, going 6 innings with only 2 Ks. The White Sox are striking out almost 30% of the time vs RHP since the start of the month. That’s unheard of. Berrios has been extremely inconsistent of late, and straight up bad his last two outings. This is a perfect spot to right the ship and take the spotlight off of the White Sox prized pitching prospect, Michael Kopech, who debuts tonight. Between the Weather and recent inconsistencies, Berrios is a higher risk than the guys above him, but vs a high strikeout team like the Sox, this could be the perfect spot.
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($8,300 FD / $9,200 DK) vs STL
Ryu was great in his return from the DL last week, going 6 shutout innings with 6 Ks, and no walks. He only has 35 ⅔ innings at the big league level this season, where he owns a 42/10 K/BB ratio and has only allowed 3 HR and 19 hits overall. He struggled with walks vs LHH in his brief time before the DL but if he can limit the walks overall he should be in a okay spot. The Cardinals don’t strikeout much vs LHH, and they’re a top 10 offense in terms of production vs them. It’s not an ideal matchup as the Cards were able to get to Wood early last night. If you are in this price range, he’s 1st on the list, just ahead of this next guy.
Kyle Hendricks ($8,100 FD / $8,600 DK) @ DET
Hendricks is another guy who’s been wildly inconsistent this season. The matchup isn’t as great as I thought prior to doing the research, as the Tigers aren’t nearly as bad vs righties as they are vs lefties. They’re still a below average offense vs RHP but are only striking out just over 20% of the time since the start of the month. I just have a feeling about Hendricks tonight.
The wind will be blowing out to left, so that’s not good, but if he can keep the ball on the ground (something he’s been able to do 49% of the time vs RHH) and limit hard contact, he should be able to come away with the W. The Cubs have scored 4 total runs over their last 4 games (2-2 as they had two 1-0 victories) and Zimmermann’s extremely high fly ball rate is the perfect spot for them to get back on track and get some crooked numbers on the board for Hendricks. Don’t hope for 50 points, Hendricks isn’t that guy, but 35-40 on FD may be in the cards tonight.
Michael Kopech ($6,000 FD / $7,600 DK) vs MI
* There may be weather concerns here tonight so keep an eye out.
White Sox fans finally get to see one of their prized possessions pitch tonight vs the Twins. Acquired from the Red Sox as part of the Chris Sale deal prior to the 2017 season, Kopech has the stuff to be a future top of the rotation starter. In his final 7 starts with AAA, Kopech was 4-0 with 44 IP, an 1.84 ERA, with an outrageous 59/4 K/BB ratio. I know it’s AAA but a 31.6% K/BB% is incredible no matter the level. Earlier in the season, Kopech’s main caveat was his high walk rate. He’d allowed 56 BB in 82 ⅓ IP prior to this recent 7 game stretch. If he figured something out in terms of control, Kopech has the stuff to come up and see success immediately.
The Twins have the 6th highest K rate vs RHP since the start of August, as well as the 4th lowest walk rate. It’s a good matchup for his debut in front of a home crowd. His ownership, if the weather holds up, is going to be extremely high. I’m going to throw him in a few lineups but take a wait and see approach with Kopech. The ceiling is obviously extremely high. He’s a Noah Syndergaard level talent. Keep on eye on the control, it’s going to make or break him in terms of the way the rest of his season pans out.
1. Stanton (and NYY) @ MIA – Gotta think it’s a Stanton show in his return to Miami!
2. OAK vs Ariel Jurado – He’s no good at pitching.
3. Brewers (especially lefties) vs Sal Romano
4. Cubs @ Jordan Zimmermann – They have to break back out at some point. Wind is blowing out to left and Zimmerman gives up a ton of fly balls.
Good luck tonight. Keep an eye on the weather in the spots I mentioned above. Go with your gut and hit me up on twitter @RyanStar25 with any questions.
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