Happy Monday! We have a solid 10 game slate tonight filled with options on both sides of the ball. Let’s look at the best options on the mound and at the plate. Good Luck!
Jacob deGrom ($11,200 FD / $12,300 DK) @ NYY
Severino clearly has the better part of this matchup. However, the Yankees are only a middle of the pack offense since the break. They do not strike out much, as they have a 18.1% K-rate vs RHP in that time, but they also don’t face deGrom everyday. He’s too good to just be a fade vs this offense. He should have little ownership due to the price and the matchup. Monday night baseball on ESPN is going to be deGrom’s time to show the world why he’s the NL Cy Young even with the low win total.
Luis Severino ($10,300 FD / $11,800 DK) vs NYM
The matchup is on his side and he should have some momentum coming back home after a solid performance vs the White Sox last time out. The Mets are a bottom of the pack offense, though they have been striking out much less and walking much more since the break. Severino has only pitched twice at home since the start of July, so he should be back in his comfort zone on a big stage vs a fantastic opponent on the other side. I think this will be a pitchers duel like last night’s Cubs / Nats game. Who will come out on top? Severino is the best spot on the board due to his $900 discount from deGrom, though his ownership will be double.
Mike Clevinger ($9,300 FD / $9,200 DK) @ CIN
The Reds are the 28th ranked offense vs RHP since the break. They are striking more than league average (22.3%) and only have 37 xBH in 633 PA since the break (27th). The Indians should score more than enough runs for Clevinger to get the W. As long as he can go 6 or more innings, he should be worth the price tonight on Fanduel.
Mike Foltynewicz ($8,900 FD / $10,500 DK) vs MIA
It’s pretty much a wash between Detroit and Miami for the worst offense in baseball since the break. The Marlins don’t walk (5.3% since the break. Last in baseball), and they do not hit for power. If Folty can hit his spots this could be the best pitching score of the night. He’s opposed by a rookie who’s going to struggle vs the Braves offense, and should be able to get the QS/W combo for an added 10 points on Fanduel. I like Folty a ton tonight and so should you.
Reynaldo Lopez ($6,300 FD / $6,300 DK) @ DET
Like I mentioned previously, Detroit and Miami are in a deadlock for the worst offense in baseball since the break. Lopez has gone 7 innings each of his last two times out, and if he can limit the walks he should be able to return 5x value. He’s the guy who’ll allow you to stack the Indians, Braves, and Diamondbacks. He’s a dart throw, but the Tigers are struggling to do much of anything and he was able to go 7 innings of 1 run ball vs the Yankees his last time out. Let’s see if he can’t repeat that showing vs a much lesser team and at a basement price.
CLE @ Homer Bailey (CIN)
Cleveland is only striking out 12.9% (1st) of the time vs RHP since the break. They also own an .826 OPS (4th) and a 122 wRC+ (4th). You really don’t need a reason to stack the Indians at this point but his 83.4% contact rate (tied for 9th highest in baseball) and 42.5% hard hit rate (11th highest) make the matchup even more enticing. They’re playing in Cinci with extremely high humidity and no weather concerns.
* Stack any part of this lineup, don’t worry about splits.
ATL vs Merandy Gonzalez (MIA)
Merandy Gonzalez got knocked around in his last stint with the big league club. He owns a 47/33 K/BB ratio in 73 innings at AA. Atlanta is a top 10 offense vs RHP since the break and their numbers only get better in SunTrust Park. They should get to the Marlins bullpen early who’ve given up 55 runs in 77 IP over the last 30 days, with only 61 Ks.
* Acuna, Markakis, Freeman, Flowers, Camargo
ARI @ Bartolo Colon (TEX)
Colon has given up 35 xBH, including 15 HR, in 63 ⅔ innings at home this season. The Rangers bullpen owns a 6.78 ERA over the last 30 days. They’re allowing 36.4% Fly balls and a 42.8% hard contact rate, second highest in baseball. As long as Arizona can get to Bart early they should be able to put up plenty of runs to be worth stacking tonight.
* Peralta, Goldschmidt, Pollock, Ahmed, Souza, Escobar.
TEX vs Zack Greinke (ARI)
This is a gamble but it could pay off big as the Rangers should garner very low ownership vs Greinke tonight. Texas is a top 3 team in baseball vs RHP since the break. They are striking out a lot but are crushing the ball, as they have a 19.3% HR/FB ratio (3rd), good for 26 HR since the break. The Rangers are also 5th in BB% at 9.6% in that time frame. The only bullpen letting up more hard hit balls over the past 30 days than the Rangers are the Diamondbacks. This could be a battle of the grinders between Greinke and Colon, but I think Texas gets to Greinke and this game is a top scoring game of the night.
* 1-7 in the order should be good for a low owned stack vs a good pitcher in a bad spot.
Visit Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.