I’m going to start today’s article by mentioning one thing. You will basically be able to play whomever you want today… Is that the proper use of whomever? I’m not sure, but I’m going to roll the dice and leave it just to say I did… Anyways, there is value everywhere today, so one mistake in picking the right value or high priced guy could be the difference between winning a tournament and not cashing. I’m going to try to help you narrow down the pool a little.
Just remember, late news is daily at this point, so there is a good chance that something changes leading up to the last 30 minutes before lock. Try to be as prepared as possible if this situation comes up. Too many times, DFS players overreact to this type of late news and end up changing the entire lineup they worked all day constructing. I’m guilty of this as well. Sometimes the late breaking news is too much to ignore, and you need to readjust a bit. But a lot of the time, you would probably be better off just leaving what you’ve worked all day on.
Either way, just make sure you take a step back in these situations and really think about whether or not you will benefit from making one, two, or even more changes to your lineup. With that said, let’s dive into today’s slate.
PG: Dennis Schroeder – Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta has a lot of injuries in the front court, and this has pushed Schroeder’s minutes into the mid-30’s over the last couple games. This has happened at the perfect time for DFS players, as his price bottomed out last game and is still in the lowest range it has been all season. He will face off against DeAaron Fox, who has been a really bad defender all season long. Schroeder should see a very healthy usage rate in this game and he might be the best dollar for dollar play on the slate. He’s very safe for cash games and has plenty of upside for tournaments.
PG/SG: James Harden – Houston Rockets
Harden is the stud I want to pair with all of the value on this slate. He’s in MVP form right now and has topped 60 Draftkings points in each of his last three, surpassing 30 real points in each of those games. In this matchup against the Pistons, I do think there is some blowout risk, but I’m willing to take that risk. Chris Paul is very questionable at this point and if he sits, it will make Harden that much more of a lock. Looking across the Pistons roster, I don’t see anyone who can slow Harden down. The only way Harden won’t make my final lineup is if I feel Harden + punt isn’t greater than two $7-8,000 players. With all the value though, I think it’s going to be easy to get Harden in there.
SF/PF: Kyle Kuzma – Los Angeles Lakers
Kuzma continues to play 35-40 minutes, while his price hovers in the low $6,000 range. Throw in the matchup against the Pelicans, who are playing their third game in three days, and he rivals Schroeder for the best play on the slate. He seems to get overlooked often, but I don’t know how you don’t lock in the nearly 40 minutes with 50 points upside at just $6,300. On the season, Kuzma has averaged roughly 0.95 DK points per minute and over a point per minute against the Pelicans in two games. If you do the math, it will be hard to keep Kuzma out of your lineup.
PF/C: Mike Muscala – Atlanta Hawks
Muscala is a guy who I’ve played quite often lately for value. He had been hovering around $4,000, while coming off the bench and playing low 20’s in minutes. Due to the injury bug that has hit the Hawks, he’s now in the starting lineup and playing nearly 30 minutes. His price is still just $4,400, which is much too low for that role. There is a lot of front court value today, and I think Muscala will go overlooked by the casual DFS player. He’s in a great spot against the Kings soft front court defense.
C: MULTIPLE POSSIBLE VALUE PLAYS
There are a couple value plays to discuss at center. They both hinge on possible injury news. Let’s start with Deyonta Davis for the Memphis Grizzlies. Davis will likely start for Marc Gasol, who has been ruled out. He flopped in his last start (two games ago), scoring just 10.25 DK points in nearly 22 minutes. My interest in him depends on the status of Ivan Rabb. I know that sounds odd, but here’s why. Davis hasn’t played more than 25 minutes all season long. He’s been a solid fantasy producer at 0.92 DK points per minute. But if he only plays around 20-22 minutes, my interest wanes. Sure, we could probably project him around 20 DK points, which is fine for his $3,300 salary. I just feel there are plays with more upside. Don’t get me wrong though, he is a solid play. Just know he can dud, like we saw in his last start.
The guy who interests me a bit more is Guillermo Hernangomez. Hernangomez should be in line for a big minutes boost with Dwight Howard suspended for one game after picking up his 16th technical foul last night. Hernangomez has finally received some run with his new team over the past three games. During that span, he’s played just over 47 minutes and has scored 61 Draftkings points. This is another situation where we need to watch the injury status of a teammate. Cody Zeller has been out the last few games and is questionable. If he is out again tonight, lock in Hernangomez. He’ll likely play at least mid-20’s in minutes and is a solid candidate for 10X return on his $3,400 salary.
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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