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NBA DFS Breakdown for Draftkings and FanDuel 11/28

Today’s article is up earlier than normal, because I won’t be able to write it later in the day. I’m doing my research Tuesday night, so there is going to be a lot of situations that are not fully clear due to injury situations, etc. I’m going to do my best to outline a few of those situations and give you some targets based on how those situations shake out as inactives are announced. As always, you can ask me any questions you have on Twitter as the games get closer. I should be able to answer before tip off. I’m going to go over the injury situations first and then highlight the individual plays I like.

Philadelphia 76ers

This is a situation to watch as Ben Simmons may not play in this one. He rolled his ankle and left his last game a little early. That could have been a precautionary measure, but if he does end up sitting out, I will be targeting T.J. McConnell and possibly J.J. Redick too. I won’t dive too much into it, but my analysis from Monday on this situation remains the same. You can read that by clicking here. Due to the matchup in this game, I prefer McConnell over Redick who I may end up leaving out this time around, even if Simmons sits. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

If Jeff Teague ends up sitting out again, I will go back to the well with Tyus Jones. Jones has been excellent as a fill in for Teague, starting the last two games, and putting up 32, 43, and 30 DK points in his last three games w/out Teague. He’s still only $4,500 on Draftkings, so you don’t need to overthink it too much here. He can realistically hit 6-8 times value at that price, as he has already shown consistently. I’m okay fading him on FanDuel at $5,300, but he’s not a horrible play at that price, seeing as he’ll likely play 38-40 minutes.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors played their last game without their two best players, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry. They could both play Wednesday night, but against the Lakers, the Warriors may elect to give them one more game off. If they do not play, Pat McCaw makes an excellent value play. He got the start in the last game and ended up posting 40.25 DK points in 33 minutes. Against the Lakers, he would be in a great spot to come close to a repeat performance. You could also play any of the other main guys, like: Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Omri Casspi. They all struggled a bit at times Monday against the Kings, but this is a much more fantasy friendly matchup. Green would be my favorite of those three. If Durant sits out but Curry plays, Curry becomes THE BEST play on the slate.

Indiana Pacers

This situation revolves around one player, Victor Oladipo. After getting revenge again against the Magic, Oladipo came out of Monday’s game with soreness in the knee that he was already questionable from. There is a strong chance that the Pacers choose to give him the night off here. This would do wonders for Lance Stephenson. I also wrote this same predicament up on Monday, and although Oladipo played, Stephenson still had a monster game. He could definitely have a repeat performance in a fast paced game against Houston on Wednesday.

SF/PF: Harrison Barnes – Dallas Mavericks

If you haven’t been paying attention, Barnes has been a consistent as anyone at his price. He’s scored no fewer than 27.5 DK points over his last 10 games, and has only been below 30 twice in that span. He topped 40 in four of those games. Against the Nets, I fully expect him to have a ceiling type game. This should be one he crosses 40 fantasy points. He’s affordable on both sites, and I think I’ll be hitting the lock button on him on this slate. 

SG/SF: Courtney Lee – New York Knicks

I think the theme here is consistency. Lee is another guy that no one ever rosters, but he continues to pay off his salary night in and night out. He’s only had three games all season under 20 DK points. He’s been at or above 5X value in eight of his last 10 games, and that’s at his current salary, which is the highest it’s been all season. Miami is playing on a back to back here after getting handled easily by the Cavs on Tuesday. I think Lee should have plenty of open looks in this one, and if he gets hot, he can score 25+ real points.

PG/SG: Dennis Smith Jr. – Dallas Mavericks

I don’t typically target Mavs players, but you have to make an exception for any team playing against the Nets. Smith Jr. has been merely average over his last eight games, but I’m willing to let that slide. He has had a brutal schedule during that stretch. He faced San Antonio twice (fewest FP allowed to PG’s), OKC twice (third fewest allowed), Boston (fifth fewest), and Milwaukee (12th fewest). He also played against Minnesota and Memphis (slow paced, good team defense) during that stretch. I think the best of point guards in the league would see a bit of dip in production during that stretch. This will be one of those games where he can let lose and really do his thing. The Nets allow the sixth most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

PG/SG: James Harden – Houston Rockets

I learned my lesson not playing Harden against the Nets. He is almost blowout proof. He’s only played fewer than 32 minutes one time the entire season, and he still played 30 in that one. If Oladpio doesn’t play here, I do worry about the blowout, but I don’t think it’s too big of a concern. We know that Harden can score 60+ fantasy points in 30 minutes. On the season, Harden is averaging 1.63 FP/minute, so even if he plays the minimum of 32 minutes, we should get 50+ out of him. On this slate, where I don’t like too many of the higher priced guys, I’m just going to lock in the safety and massive lump of points that Harden provides.

SF/PF: Otto Porter – Washington Wizards

Porter is the man stepping up in the absence of John Wall. He lead the Warriors to a win on Tuesday night in a game where the Timberwolves schemed to take Bradley Beal out of the game. They did just that, but Porter stepped up down the stretch. He’s the perfect fantasy asset, as he does a little bit of everything. When his scoring opportunities are elevated like they are without Wall, his fantasy outlook drastically changes. He’s averaged seven points per game more over the past two games without Wall. For a guy that already averages 32 DK points per game, adding 7-10 points more scoring puts him in a spot where his salary hasn’t adjusted to the increased usage, especially on Draftkings. Without Wall on the court, his usage rate jumps from around 16% to 23% and his fantasy points per minute increases nearly 20%. The Sixers allow the most steals in the NBA to the SF position, and where we get the huge Porter games are when he racks up the peripherals, especially steals and blocks.

*****

That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.

 

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Eric S
Eric is the creator of DFSdigest.com and has played fantasy football for nearly 20 years now and is primarily a GPP player in DFS. He estimates he enters lineups in either football, basketball, baseball or golf roughly 350 days a year. Eric is ranked inside the top 7% in RotoGrinders overall player ranking. His favorite teams include the Detroit Lions, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the Atlanta Braves.
Eric S

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