I hope everyone had a great weekend! This is one of my favorite weeks of the year. Nothing can replace the family, the food, and the football. And of course the short work week for most. We’ve also got some really good basketball this week, highlighted by Kevin Durant heading to OKC to play the Thunder Wednesday night. There’s a big slate for Monday night, with lots of potential plays. Once again, it’s looking like a balanced night for me. Let’s get to tonight’s plays.
PG: Kemba Walker – Charlotte Hornets
Walker has an awesome matchup, he’s priced well, and he’s at home where we like to target him. He is currently averaging just at 5X his salary on DraftKings, which isn’t something we usually see when a player has a good matchup. Most people probably don’t see the Timberwolves and immediately consider it a good matchup, but they have been generous to opposing point guards this season as they figure out their new team dynamics. They’re bottom ten in terms of opposing fantasy points given up to the position, at a point per minute. Walker has scored 36 or more fantasy points in eight of his last 10, so he comes with a solid floor. He also possesses a massive ceiling at that price, as he’s topped 63 DK points in two of those ten.
SG: Victor Oladipo – Indiana Pacers
Oladipo is returning to Orlando for the second time since being traded to the OKC Thunder before last season. In his first game as a Thunder, he didn’t perform as well as he would have liked. He played 44 minutes, but only scored 24 DK points. I’m sure he’s chomping at the bit to0 play a little better his second time around. Now that he’s out from under the shadow of usage monster Russell Westbrook, Oladipo has become somewhat of a usage monster himself, with a usage rate just over 30%. That number leads the team by a wide margin. We’ve seen quite a few shooting guards play well against the Magic, and in what is the highest total on the board, there should be plenty of fantasy goodness for Oladipo.
SF/PF: Robert Covington – Philadelphia 76ers
This play is simply based on price. Covington is much too cheap in my opinion at just $6,100. He’s been right around or above 6X his current salary in six of his last ten games. He’s also flashed upside with a game in there over 50. Coming off of signing a HUGE contract extension, Covington has the worries of that behind him and can go out each night and just focus on playing basketball. Once again, this is a spot where you may see his opponent, the Jazz, and shy away from the matchup. Without Rudy Gobert on the floor, this is not the same defensive team. While allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams over the last two seasons, they’ve been somewhere around the middle of the pack over the last week since Gobert went down. Covington put up 34.5 DK points against the Jazz earlier this season and that was while Gobert was still manning the paint.
PG: Rajon Rondo – New Orleans Pelicans
This is probably your last chance to get on Rondo before his price shoots up. In his first three games back, Rondo played five minutes, then 14, then 25. I think he’ll see close to 30 in this one against the Thunder. The Thunder have been a solid defensive team this season, but Rondo does it all and should be able to contribute across the stat sheet tonight. At just $4,800, he has massive upside, but his floor is solid too. If he get’s close to 30 minutes, he should have a floor around 23-25 points, which wouldn’t ruin your lineup.
SF/PF: Tobias Harris – Detroit Pistons
The wings that can shoot against the Cavs narrative rolls on. Harris is priced at only $6,200, and he’s scored 30 or more DK points in five of his last ten games. During that span he hasn’t had fewer than 20 fantasy points. Again, this is a play that comes with a safe floor and the upside we need in tournaments. Harris is a streaky shooter, but if he get’s hot from deep, look out! His home/road splits this season are something to make note of. At home, he’s averaging 34.7 DK points as opposed to 27.5 on the road. The reason for that is his shooting. On the road, he’s just 35.7% from three-point range. At home, a whopping 56.1% from deep. This game is in Detroit, so I’m going to ride his hot home shooting in an excellent matchup. I won’t be surprised if this is his best game of the year and he crosses the 40 DK point plateau.
PG: Tim Frazier – Washington Wizards (if John Wall is out)
This play hinges on John Wall’s status. He sat out Sunday and he’s questionable for Monday. I would be surprised if he plays here. If he’s out, Frazier is a lock in my lineup(s). He’s just under a point per minute fantasy player on the year and with Wall out, he would see north of 32 minutes. You do the math. At just $3,400, he would be nearly impossible to fade, even in a tough matchup.
PF/C: Willie Cauley-Stein – Sacramento Kings
This play is a bit risky, but I think we have to take advantage of this price while we still can. Cauley-Stein is just $4,500, despite averaging 32 minutes and 39 DK points over his last two games. I think the Kings have finally decided to take the reins off a bit and let him get more run. On the season, he’s averaging roughly a fantasy point per minute in just under 25 minutes per game. If we can get that extra rotation’s worth of minutes out of him again tonight, he should definitely pay off this price tag. Cauley-Stein is another player in today’s write-up who has massive home/road splits. In fact, he’s averaging nearly 10 more DK points per game at home versus on the road (29.3 vs. 19.9). This is also another spot where I don’t love the matchup, but with his price and minutes, I think he’s in play and provides some relief without completely punting a position.
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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