It’s time for another solid NBA slate. There’s plenty to like on this one and it looks like it will be a fairly balanced approach, as there are only four guys priced higher than $10,000 and none higher than Lebron James at $11,200. Keep an eye on who’s in and who’s out as lineups are announced close to lock. There are certain situations where that will matter on this slate.
PG: Dennis Smith Jr. – Dallas Mavericks
How fun is this kid to watch on a team that could otherwise be completely irrelevant? DSJ has scored 37 or more DK points in three of his last four games, with 45.5 and 46.25 in his two best during that span. The fourth game… he scored 30. That’s at least five times value on his current price and over seven times at the high-end. He’s simply underpriced and I will have him locked in against the Timberwolves, who have been one of the most generous in the league to opposing PG’s so far this season.
SG: Lou Williams – Los Angeles Clippers
This is one of those situations you need to watch. Patrick Beverley is currently doubtful, and if he is out, I want all of the Sweet Lou. Williams had 60 DK points in his last outing and he’s also had 49.75 in another game during his last three while Beverley has been out. I have been targeting wings who can shoot against the Cavs and it has paid dividends. Just look at these recent performances against them:
- Nicolas Batum – 33.75 DK points
- Tim Hardaway Jr. – 56 DK points
- James Harden – 85.25 DK points
- Khris Middleton – 52.75 DK points
- Kent Bazemore – 42.45 DK points
- Bradley Beal – 47.5 DK points
- Victor Oladipo 39 DK points
- Tim Hardaway Jr. – 57 DK points
- Courtney Lee – 38 DK points
You get the point. That may be the craziest stretch of performances by one position against one particular team ever. That’s not picking and choosing. Those performances came from eight of their last nine games. The only one I left out was the Mavericks and DSJ scored 46.25 in that one. Just lock and load opposing wing players against the Cavs.
SF: Lebron James – Cleveland Cavaliers
Ironically, there are two teams that I’ve religiously targeted opposing wing players against this year. Besides the Cavs, it’s their opponent on Friday, the Clippers. Here are some recent game logs of wings against the Clippers.
- Robert Covington – 54 DK points
- Ben Simmons – 46 DK points
- Paul George – 70.25 DK points
- Rudy Gay – 40.75 DK points
- Danny Green – 33.75 DK points
- Tyler Johnson – 32.5 DK points
This is a perfect mini-stack with Lebron and Williams. The upside with these two is really high and Vegas believes it will be a shootout, with the second highest total on the board, opening at 224.
SG/SF: Courtney Lee – New York Knicks
I’m not sure what Courtney Lee needs to do to get a price bump. He’s been over 20 DK points in nine of his last 10 games. At $4,300, he’s returned 6X value or better in five of the last ten and has returned 5X in all but two of those ten. He continues to get his shots and if he shoots just average, a 30 DK point outing is realistic. He’s the perfect combo of safety with enough upside to help you win a tourney.
PG/SG: Spencer Dinwiddie – Brooklyn Nets
It’s not often we target someone against the Jazz. However, with Rudy Gobert out, this defense takes a big hit. Dinwiddie has been exceptional in fill in starts for DeAngelo Russell to start the year and Russell has already been ruled out in this one. In two games that Russell sat, Dinwiddie averaged 38 DK points. At $5,500, I think he should cross the 30 fantasy point plateau and then anything above that is icing on the cake.
SF/PF: T.J. Warren – Phoenix Suns
Warren has already played the Lakers twice this season and is averaging 41 DK points in those two. Before his last two games (could have changed slightly since then), I dug into some numbers on Warren and found a trend depending on the point guard that starts alongside him. With Mike James as the starting point guard, Warren is averaging just over one DraftKings points per minute and around a 25% usage rate. With Ulis starting, his points per minute jumps up to over 1.3, with around a 32% usage rate. The last few games, Ulis has taken back over the starting point guard role and it has benefited Warren. Before last nights blow out against the Rockets, he had 39 and 46 in the two previous games.
PG: Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors
VanVleet is your min price punt tonight. With Delon Wright ruled out and Normal Powell also unlikely, there are secure minutes for VanVleet in this rotation. He’s averaged roughly 0.84 DK points per minute this season and should play around 25 in this one. He’s probably safe for 6X value, but has upside for much more.
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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