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Buy low/sell high: Time for a playoff run

At this point in the season many of us know what our teams are. You are in the playoffs and going for a bye, on the cusp of the playoffs, or out of it completely.

If you are going for a bye I think you really need to prioritize getting the bye over building a juggernaut, unless you have a two game lead over not having a bye, then set yourself up for a playoff run. Getting a bye increases the odds of a title immensely. In my one home league which I track constantly we have only had one team in 12 years win a title while not having a bye.

If you are basically in the playoffs but you have little realistic chance at a bye, those are the situations where I would be trying to set up for the playoffs. Maybe you are 5-4 and have a two game lead over the not in the playoff crowd – I am ok trying to set up a juggernaut for a playoff run, as in taking on bye weeks or injured players in order to make the team better.

If you are mathematically eliminated, don’t stop playing. Sure, you might not want to constantly check for trades like you once did, or spend tons of time on the waiver wire. Still, set your lineups and add players to fill obvious holes. Don’t let some team get an easier road just because you are eliminated and don’t feel like playing.

If you have a question specific to a player or situation feel free to ask in the comment section below and I will do my best to help you out. You can also reach me on twitter –

BUY LOW

TE: Zach Ertz

I don’t like buying into injury optimism, but I don’t think his injury is serious. He tried working out pregame and just didn’t feel good enough to go. I shouldn’t have to say anything in regards to numbers as Ertz has clearly been one of the top tight ends in the NFL this season.

Ertz has a bye coming this week so you wont have him, but at least you will know it ahead of time. If you are lucky, the team with Ertz can’t afford to take a week without a tight end, although basically all the tight ends that they would have to choose from aren’t good.

Having Ertz in the playoffs could be a difference maker.

WR: Corey Davis

He came back and didn’t immediately produce top-10 numbers so someone out there that had crazy unrealistic expectations is going to be disappointed. Davis played 77% of the snaps Sunday, a good sign moving forward that he will be part of the offense.

Davis has the upside to break out of the huge group of receivers that seems to level off after the top-15-ish.

His matchup is hit or miss rest of season, a handful of good and bad, so he likely won’t be an every week starter unless he comes out all of a sudden and is like Odell Beckham Jr. in his rookie year.

WR: Julio Jones

Nearly missed having a huge game because he dropped a long gimme touchdown. Instead he just had a boring 118-yard game.

For what the expectations were, Julio has been a bust this year. He has given what feels like high-end WR2 production rather than sure fire stud production. I am still betting on the talent to win out with Jones. In his last four games, since the bye he has averaged six catches for 90.75 yards and he has one touchdown in that span.

He will have tough matchups with the Seahawks and Vikings, but great matchups against the Cowboys, two against the Buccaneers, and two against the (I am not convinced they have a good defense) Saints.

Jones typically misses a game down the stretch from all the wear and tear of being a huge receiver so there is that risk, but if he stays healthy he could be one of the players that wins people their leagues.

RB: LeSean McCoy

McCoy has been more disappointing than satisfying this year with three games under 26 rushing yards this year and he only scored a touchdown in two games. There are a couple nice matchups on his schedule, though, in the Chargers, Chiefs, Patriots (twice), Colts, Dolphins.

WR: Mike Evans

The Bucs have looked pitiful the past few weeks in every facet. Evans has yet to top 100 yards this year, but this is the first time he has really let teams down – 60 yards hurts, but it isn’t a week killer.

Maybe Jameis Winston misses the next week or two, that might actually help if it means healthy gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick is peppering Evans with targets.



SELL HIGH

RB: Matt Forte

Forte looked like vintage Forte at times Thursday night, but most of the time he looked like just another player. In the end he got the touchdowns, but he didn’t run away with the backfield snaps. That could have been because the game got out of hand. I do think that is why McGuire got a lot of run, but it could have all been part of the plan.

I expect the Jets to keep rotating their backs and more often than not Forte be a bench player.

WR: T.Y. Hilton

This is what Hilton owners should have been hoping for. A huge game right after Andrew Luck is ruled out for the season, although Luck was basically done for a while.

Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable so far this season, but that has turned into a boom or bust WR3. I would have been looking for a way out of my Hilton shares all season with Luck not under center, I would try to turn him into a WR2.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins

Similar to Hilton, this might be your chance to get out.

Hopkins had a solid day and he was peppered with targets, but I just can’t trust Tom Savage. Over the years Hopkins has been very dependent on having a good quarterback, or good quarterback play, to reach his ceiling, and I don’t think Savage can provide that even if he gets double-digit targets.

This is one of those deals that could easily blow up in your face and you regret, but you can’t fear making a move.

RB: Adrian Peterson

I am going to keep this one short. Peterson is not going to get nearly 40 carries often. He also isn’t going to be playing the 49ers or have a chance to be playing the majority of the game with a lead.

Sell, sell, sell if you can get an upgrade.

HOLD

RB: Christian McCaffrey

For the first time this year he looked solid as a runner and played a lot more snaps than Stewart. If it is true that the Kelvin Benjamin trade was going to open up the field more for speed for guys like McCaffrey, he could be in for a fantastic stretch run.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
Andy Germani

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15 comments on “Buy low/sell high: Time for a playoff run

  1. I have Hopkins, Evans, AJ green, and Keenan Allen. My RBs are cj adnerson, Abdullah, booker, drake. Would you trade a Hopkins for an upgrade at RB? Who would you Target?

    • Id be looking to flip a WR for a RB.

      Id be willing to settle as “low” as Jerick McKinnon, Aaron Jones, or Alvin Kamara who I am on board as high-end RB2s and potential RB1s, but it would be as a last ditch offer. And I would try to get something else tossed in.

      Id try for Mark Ingram, Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard as a realistic target. If you have a WR needy owner you might be able to go even higher.

  2. So Which WR’s would you trade Hopkins for?
    Half PPR 10 Teams
    My Team:
    QB: Wentz and Mariota
    RB: Freeman,Coleman,Gordon and Mccoy
    WR: Hopkins,K.Allen,Cooks, Diggs, Funchess and C.Davis
    TE: Kelce and Doyle
    K: Bryant
    Def: Broncos

    Also What was your opinion on K.Hunt? Would he be someone to buy low on? maybe trade Freeman and Coleman for Him?

    • Id be buying Hunt. I would have put him in but I had it written up before that game was over and didnt have a chance for a late edit. His “bad” stretch has him averaging about 100 total yards per game.

      Id be going for like Baldwin, Cooks, Michael Thomas, guys that are low end WR1s. Everyone should know why you are trading Hopkins so it is going to be hard to give him up and just point to what he has done to this point this season.

      I wouldnt sell if I couldnt get a high end WR2 so if you cant get anything done dont sell him just hold.

  3. Half PPR K. Hunt for Antonio Brown?
    RBs- Hunt, Ingram, Howard, Collins, Morris
    WRs- Julio, Baldwin, Thielen, K. Allen
    Currently 8/10 and need Ws. Week 10 trade deadline…

    • Hunt and Brown are even in value so it comes down to need and you can start Brown this week and not Hunt so I would go for Brown.

      • Thank you!

        I am trying to figure out how to package Allen/Collins/Morris/Thielen in some combination to get a RB2 level person to balance things out if I do the Hunt-Brown deal.

        I have also floated Hunt/Allen for L. Bell, which will help me this week and I would not be giving up a lot of value for the rest of the season either.

        Appreciate your article and input!

        • If you can swing that for Bell that would be great. Or really Hunt plus any bench player. At this point when you are down at the bottom and need to win out basically, the bench doesnt matter.

          Something bad happens and you lose someone your season might be over anyway. Get the starting lineup as strong as possible and make a run

  4. Best thing you wrote here Andy was that “if you are out of the race, don’t stop playing.” The fantasy player’s ethics should include this as point 1A! When you signed up, it was a commitment for the whole season, not for until you lose interest because you built a poor team.

  5. Someone offered me J.Howard and Antonio Brown for McCoy and Kelce, should I take that deal? Half PPR 10 Teams
    My Team:
    QB: Wentz and Mariota
    RB: Freeman,Coleman,Gordon and Mccoy
    WR: Hopkins,K.Allen,Cooks, Diggs, Funchess and C.Davis
    TE: Kelce and Doyle
    K: Pratter
    Def: Broncos

    • Value wise you should absolutely do it. But you lose Kelce which hurts.

      Basically this changes your lineup from Kelce, McCoy, Allen/Cooks to Doyle, Brown Howard.

      I would do it but I would try to do whatever I could to not give up Kelce

  6. The trade is completed McCoy and Kelce for Brown, Witten and Howard. what do you think?

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