Howdy folks! I am about to embark on a mini road-trip for my niece’s 2nd birthday party this weekend. I am hoping to get home in time to watch some of the 4:00 O’clock games on Sunday – wish me luck. Last week was my most successful DFS week since week 1. I am feeling some positive momentum, though, so let’s see if we can pick some more winners. Here we go.
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Russell Wilson @ Giants ($6,400) – Wilson’s form has been up and down this year, but I always like him as a high floor guy. Wilson has had over 25 rushing yards in 4 of 5 games this year and thrown for multiple touchdowns in 2 of his last 3 games. The Giants pass defense is mediocre at best, ranking 24th in yards per game allowed.
Bang for Your Buck
Jarred Goff vs. Cardinals ($5,800) – Goff looks like he has slowed down after a nice start to the year but if you look at his numbers, Goff has just run into a tough schedule. His last 2 starts came against top 5 pass defenses in Jacksonville and Seattle. This week he faces off against Arizona who rank 25th in pass yards per game allowed and 24th in Football Outsiders defensive efficiency rating against the pass. In 3 games versus top 15 pass defenses, Goff has not topped 12.06 DraftKings points. But in his 3 games against bottom 15 teams he has scored 18.1, 19.4 and 23.6. Goff plays a low rated pass defense and should be good to go this week.
Blake Bortles @ Colts ($4,700) – It is always risky to recommend Bortles because he is just not very good at football. That having been said, he will likely be 1% owned in GPP tournaments and the Colts rank 27th in defensive efficiency versus the pass, 30th in pass yards per game allowed and 31st in yards per attempt allowed. Bortles will be my lotto ticket this week.
LeVeon Bell vs. Bengals ($9,100) – The Bengals are a rock solid run defense ranking 7th in defensive efficiency against ground games. But after missing the pre-season, the league’s best running back is finding his groove. Bell has had 30+ DraftKings points in 2 of his last 3 games and 180+ total yards in 2 of 3 games. When Bell is on, he is match-up proof, and he is on right now.
Mark Ingram @ Packers ($6,700) – I love Ingram’s usage in the passing game as he has 5+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games. His usage in the running game seems to be catching up as the Saints traded Adrian Peterson. Last week, Ingram obliterated his season high in carries by toting the rock 25 times. He made good use of those opportunities to rush for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns. Expect more of the same this week.
Bang for your Buck
Jay Ajayi vs. Jets ($6,200) – Ajayi is one of the best bets in the league for carries as he has had 25+ carries 3 times already this year, including his last 2 games. Ajayi looked great last game with 130 rushing yards. This week he faces the 25th ranked defense in efficiency versus the run, and 28th in yards per game allowed. I like Ajayi for a good game.
Derrick Henry @ Browns ($5,500) – DeMarco Murray is looking like he might miss this game and that might mean 30+ touches for Henry. If that is the case, it would be hard to fade a guy this talented. He showed what he could do with extra work, amassing 131 yards on 19 carries.
Joe Mixon @ Steelers ($5,000) – The Steelers are very hard to pass against and I think Andy Dalton is going to have a tough time of it. However, the Steelers do allow rushing yards as they rank 23rd in rushing yards per game allowed. Since switching offensive coordinators, the Bengals have been giving Mixon the ball more as he has 15+ carries each game. This is a good price for a lead running back.
Marlon Mack vs. Jaguars ($4,100) – The Jaguars have a phenomenal pass defense, but they have been bad against the run, ranking last in yards per carry allowed at 5.2. They have also given up a number of big plays on the ground this year. Frank Gore will get most of the carries, but it would not surprise me if Mack hit a home run or two with his limited carries. I will be using him in GPPs.
Dez Bryant @ 49ers ($7,800) – Bryant always sees his share of targets as he has gotten 8+ looks in 4 of 5 games this year. I think he will make those looks count this week as the 49ers rank 23rd against #1 wide receivers. Look for a good game for Dez.
Jarvis Landry vs. Jets ($6,800) – It is looking more and more like Davante Parker is going to miss this game which means even more throws Landry’s way. Landry has already had 10+ targets in 4 of 5 games this year including 14 targets last week with Parker out. In DraftKings’ PPR scoring, Landry is as safe as it gets.
Doug Baldwin @ Giants ($6,600) – Baldwin has been dynamic on the road this year with 15.7 DraftKings points per game. The Giants have struggled somewhat against the pass ranking 20th in defensive efficiency. Put those two things together and you have the recipe for a nice Baldwin game.
Bang for your Buck
Pierre Garcon vs. Cowboys ($5,800) – Garcon is far and away the #1 guy for the 49ers as he has amassed double-digit targets in 4 of 6 games including 3 of his last 4. New quarterback CJ Beathard seemed to be looking for Garcon on every play as the Niners playmaker had 12 looks. I expect more of the same which could mean nice production at this price.
DeMaryius Thomas @ Chargers ($5,800) – Beware that Thomas is listed as questionable in the injury report, but it looks like he will play. If that is the case, this price is way, way (way, way) too low for a top 10 receiver in the league. This is doubly the case with Emmanuel Sanders out. Thomas might see close to 20 targets this game. I will be using him close to 100% of the time.
Sammy Watkins vs. Cardinals ($4,400) – WARNING! ANOTHER GPP ONLY PLAY! Last week in this space, I said that Amari Cooper was too good a talent to be priced as low as he was and that he was going to break out one of these weeks. I was one week too early on him as Cooper had a tremendous game yesterday. The same is true for Watkins who is uber-talented but is off to a rocky start. He will be dynamite in a game soon. I will keep taking him at this low price and hope it pays off.
Eric Decker @ Browns ($4,300) – Decker had a season high in catches, targets and yards last week and yet he is still priced like a no-name schlub. The Browns rank 32nd (i.e. dead last) in defensive efficiency against the pass. Decker is a rock solid play this week.
Allen Hurns @ Colts ($4,100) – Marqise Lee may miss this game, which would mean increased usage for Hurns. I have already outlined Indy’s struggles against the pass as they rank 30th in pass yards per game allowed. Hurns is probably in line for 8-12 looks against an awful pass defense. He could be in line for a great game.
Bennie Fowler @ Chargers ($3,300) – With Emmanuel Sanders out, Fowler will be starting this game. That could mean good things as he had 2 touchdowns against the Chargers in week 1 this year. There is also an outside chance that Demaryius Thomas misses this game, in which case Fowler is probably a double-digit target guy for near minimum price against a suspect pass defense.
Evan Engram vs. Seahawks ($4,400) – This is a great price for a guy who is essentially his team’s #1 receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. out. Engram has had 7+ targets in 3 of 4 games and he will almost assuredly make it 4 of 5. Seattle is tough, but Engram should easily exceed value.
Bang for your Buck
Zach Miller vs. Panthers ($3,200) – Since Mitch Trubisky was installed as starting quarterback, Miller has caught touchdowns in consecutive games. While it is true that one was on a tipped pass and the other was a pass from a running back, I am still encouraged by the increased red zone usage. I like Miller for $3,200.
AJ Derby @ Chargers ($2,800) – I have already mentioned the Broncos’ injury issues at WR a couple of times. But with them being short on pass catchers, Derby has a chance to get more heavily involved in the passing game. At $2,800, he is worth a speculative roster spot.
Steelers @ Bengals ($3,200) – The Bengals have been awful offensively against good defenses. The Steelers have a good defense. This is a nice, safe play.
Ravens @ Vikings ($2,900) – The Vikings are a good team but not a good offensive team. The Ravens are as explosive as it gets on defense. They should put up points in a defensive struggle.
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