This slate is completely opposite than the one that we had Tuesday. The pitching options are blah. I can’t find two that I like, whereas on Tuesday, I couldn’t narrow it down to my top five. Don’t break the bank on this slate, but take some shots in tournaments with different combinations of pitching. Here’s the guys I’m finding in my lineups as I start constructing rosters:
Pitchers to Target
Jose Quintana – Quintana’s advanced stats have been exceptional over the last fifteen days. He leads all pitchers on this slate in exit velocity and hard hit percentage against over that time span. He also is second on the slate in batted ball distance and ground ball rate. The Phillies aren’t as bad against lefties as they are against righties, but they still aren’t all that great. I don’t know if I’ll end up on Quintana due to his price, but his advanced stats are there for him to have a solid outing.
Justin Verlander – Verlander might be the safest option on this slate against the White Sox, who have the third worst wOBA against right-handed pitching and they strike out 22.5% of the time. He has scored 30+ DraftKings points in three of his last four starts. He is priced up to $11,900, but I like him a little better than the guys priced immediately above and below him.
Adam Conley – As you’re probably noticing by now, this slate isn’t near what Tuesday’s was in terms of pitching. Conley would be a lot more interesting if he was priced down where he has been all season. In his last start he fanned 11 over seven innings against the Mets. Take that with a grain of salt because the game before he had zero strikeouts in 6.1 innings. Just call that immediate positive regression.
Now he get’s the best matchup possible in the San Diego Padres who strikeout 25.8% of the time against left-handed pitchers and have a league worst .284 wOBA. Again, his price is up to $7,900, and I hate to pay that much for Adam Conley, but it’s tempting with such limited options.
Kenta Maeda – Maeda has a lot of strikeout upside in this matchup, but he’s priced higher than we’ve seen him before. He has as good of a shot as anyone to be the top scoring pitcher on this slate.
Batters to Target
J.D. Martinez – Is Martinez playing a lefty? Yes. Play J.D. Martinez! If you need stats – vs. LHP – .576 wOBA, .552 ISO, .414 batting average (.907, 1.087, .609 at home respectively). That’s laughable.
Rhys Hoskins – I don’t mind Hoskins as a one off against Quintana. The guy is a hoss, and I don’t see him stopping any time soon. He has eight home runs in his first 53 major league at bats, and he’s hitting the ball in the air 60% of the time against lefties. He has a good chance of going deep here at a reasonably cheap price on DraftKings.
Nelson Cruz/Giancarlo Stanton – Maybe it is lazy to recommend them, but they’re both facing a lefty and I try to get them in there almost every time they’re in this type of matchup.
Stacks to Target
Toronto Blue Jays – Bartolo Colon finally sunk back down to earth, giving up seven earned runs and six home runs in his last two starts. The Blue Jays are just priced too cheap as a team and I’m going to have plenty of exposure.
New York Yankees – We’ll have to see where the chips fall after the brawl between the Yankees and Tigers, but I’m going to have exposure to some bats in this lineup. Ariel Miranda has been much worse on the road with a .377 wOBA to righties and a .335 to lefties. He’s also offering up 2.91 HR/9 on the road to right-handed batters. Don’t forget Tyler Austin in your stacks.
Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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