Welcome to Friday! This is a really interesting slate because there are so many ways to go. Excellent pitching, great hitting spots, and not a ton of great options at the bottom of the barrel. Read what is standing out to me below. Pitchers to Target
Corey Kluber – Kluber was really unimpressive in his last start, with his second worst strikeout game of his last 11 with only 9 K’s. Hopefully you caught my sarcasm there. This guy is unreal. I would play him against an MLB All-Star team right now. I think people will prefer Max Scherzer against the Padres in San Diego on this slate. Personally I’ll take Kluber for $700 cheaper on DraftKings. The Royals don’t typically strike out a ton, but against Kluber they don’t have a choice. He will get his strikeouts.
Dallas Keuchel – One of the first things I look at on every slate is whether or not the Oakland A’s are facing a left-handed pitcher. Once I realize they are, as they are on this slate, I then try to determine if that southpaw is a serviceable starter. I think Keuchel more than qualifies as serviceable. He did struggle coming back from the DL, but looked much better in his last start. The A’s strike out 24.7% of the time against lefties and have a very weak .298 wOBA to go with a .150 ISO. I expect him to have an excellent game here at a lower ownership and substantial savings compared to the higher priced guys mentioned above.
R.A. Dickey – While I won’t call him safe, Dickey has actually been very consistent lately. He’s went exactly six or seven innings deep in nine of his last 10 starts. During that stretch, he has given up zero or one earned run seven times. On this slate, Dickey has the fourth best batted ball distance against, second best exit velocity and ground ball rate, and the absolute best hard hit percentage over the last 15 days. At his price, I think he’s in play as a SP2.
Batters to Target
Joey Gallo – Gallo is going to hit a home run in this game. I don’t know how he doesn’t. He’s on fire and now he gets to face the guy who is most generous at allowing long balls to lefties. James Shields has allowed a .444 wOBA, a 49.1% fly ball rate, and a 23.6% HR/FB. Gallo has an insane 59.1% fly ball rate and 45.5% hard hit percentage against righties. If he can avoid striking out and just make contact, the ball should fly over the fence at least once.
Freddie Freeman – Freeman’s price feels $500-800 too low in this matchup. Sal Romano has allowed a 40.8% hard hit percentage and a 40.4% fly ball rate against lefties. As you should know by now, Freeman is the GOAT against right-handed pitching, especially at home with a .391 average, .510 wOBA, and .348 ISO. Freeman has multi-hit upside with one or more of those leaving the yard.
Nicky Delmonico – Delmonico is too cheap and gives you much-needed salary relief on this slate. He only has 34 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers so far in the big leagues, but he has 15 hits, and two home runs. I’ll be on him against Andrew Cashner.
Stacks to Target
Los Angeles Dodgers – Jordan Zimmermann is in for a rough night. He has been abysmal against lefties, allowing a .389 wOBA, .323 batting average, and a 40.5% hard hit rate to go along with his 41.2% fly ball rate. The meat of the order for the Dodgers will mostly be hitting from the left side of the plate, and I expect them to provide plenty of fantasy goodness. Throw Justin Turner in from the other side of the plate and you’ve got yourself a solid stack.
Houston Astros – Sean Manaea has came plummeting back down to earth. He is a guy I was using earlier in the year, but the wheels have fallen off. He’s had negative DraftKings points in each of his last three games, allowing 13 earned runs (18 runs total) in just 6.2 innings. Two of those three opponents were in the top ten in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. The Astros have the absolute best strikeout rate against lefties, so this isn’t going to be the game that Manaea figures things out.
Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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