Welcome back to Friday. I’ve been in Arizona all week, which sucked because I couldn’t play DFS. It was especially disappointing because I was on a four-day streak of profiting before landing in Phoenix. Hopefully I’ll be able to pick up where I left off on this large 15 game slate. There are some excellent pitching options and some really interesting stacks. Let’s get to it.
Pitchers to Target
Robbie Ray – It literally might be my favorite thing to do in MLB DFS this season to roster Ray on the road. He has been exceptional from a fantasy standpoint, averaging 28.5 Draftkings points, to go along with 77 strikeouts in 59.2 innings. The Cardinals average a mediocre .311 wOBA against left-handed pitching and strike out over 21% of the time. Ray has allowed just a .245 wOBA , with a 32.9% strike out rate on the road, so I expect him to get the better of the Cardinals lineup.
Alex Wood – Wood finally fell back down to earth, but I’ll probably be willing to go back to him in this spot. He’s still top two on the slate over the past 15 days in batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage against. San Francisco may not strike out very often, but they also can’t hit the ball (.294 wOBA, .127 ISO against lefties). Wood could realistically pitch a complete game shut out here, and rack up 5-7 strikeouts. I’m going to hope his ownership is diminished because he got roughed up last time out.
Jose Quintana – Quintana has looked great in his new Cubs uniform. He has racked up 19 strikeouts in 13 innings while allowing three earned runs. He’ll face off with the Milwaukee Brewers, who strike out 26.5% of the time against lefties. He has enormous strike out potential here, although there is some risk involved.
Jaime Garcia – Garcia will make his first start with his new team in the best matchup possible statistically. The A’s are dead last against left-handed pitching in wOBA at .283. They also strike out the second most at 26.1%. There aren’t many cheap options on this slate, so Garcia makes a feasible SP2.
Batters to Target
Wilmer Flores – Over the past fifteen days, he has the fourth highest batted ball distance on the entire slate. He gets to face a lefty on Friday who has allowed 20 home runs to right-handed hitters this season. Flores himself has posted .344 wOBA and .243 ISO against lefties.
Chris Davis – Davis hasn’t posted the greatest fantasy results recently, but he has posted the fifth highest hard hit percentage on the slate over the past 15 days. He’ll face Andrew Cashner in Texas, where the temperature will be 100 degrees. This probably won’t end well for Cashner and I have a gut feeling that Davis goes deep here against his former team. His low price just makes him that much more enticing.
Freddie Freeman – Freeman is facing a right-handed pitcher. I should stop there. The guy is insane. He has a .481 wOBA and a .384 ISO against righties. He’ll face Jeremy Hellickson, who is plenty generous to lefties. Just play him.
Stacks to Target
Houston Astros – The Astros can go off against anyone, and I think they are likely to put up quite a few runs versus Jordan Zimmerman. He gives up a lot of home runs (22 on the season), and is equally giving to left and right-handed batters. I like the usual suspects here, such as Altuve, Gonzalez, Springer, and Gattis.
Texas Rangers – Chris Tillman is a pitcher I typically like to stack against. He’s been fairly serviceable his past three starts, but those were all at home, where he’s been much better this year than on the road. Going into Texas isn’t a good spot for him, especially with the temperature reaching 100 degrees. On the road this season he’s allowed a .450 wOBA to left-handed hitters and .520 to right-handed hitters. Recently I have been staying away from the Rangers, but after seeing them return home and put up 10 runs in consecutive games, I have interest in them here. This will likely be a popular stack, but for good reason.
Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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