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Mr Clutch’s MLB DFS Quick Hits 7/21

Happy Friday everyone! We have a very fun slate today and I think there is some clear direction here to follow. As always, you can stack both teams in Coors when that’s on a particular slate, but I’m going to go the fade route on this one and hope my other stacks outperform them. Let’s get to it.

Pitchers to Target

Alex Wood – He is expensive, but damn has he been good. Wood has given up ZERO earned runs in six of his last 10 starts. He has given up one earned run three times in his last 10 starts. Add those up and he’s given up no more than one earned run in nine of his last 10. On top of that, his advanced stats are second to none. In his last start he allowed a batted ball distance of 139 feet, 85 mph exit velocity, six percent hard hit rate, and an elite 68% ground ball rate. All of those lead or are second on this slate over the last 15 days.

Jeff Samardzija – I’ve been on the Shark a lot this season, and he has always left me with a sour taste in my mouth. He’s actually been pretty good, but he has had a handful of mediocre fantasy performances. He hardly ever gets blown up, so he’s safe in that regard, which is perfect for cash games. Now he gets the Padres, and of course I’m going back to the well. If you’re reading this article, it means you play DFS. If you play DFS, you know the Padres are the GOAT matchup. There’s no need for me to pepper you with stats.

Alex Cobb – Cobb has been exceptional in four of his last five starts, with over 21 DraftKings points in each of those four. I stacked the Rangers one too many times in their past series against the Orioles, and they were horrible. I’m to the point now where I’m going to seriously consider the opposing pitcher against them until they show more pop in the bats. Cobb also gets the luxury of his home ball park, where he has averaged 18.7 DrafKtings points per game, with a 1.03 WHIP and 2.64 ERA. The Rangers opening implied team total was 3.9, which just gives us a bit more confidence.

C.C. Sabathia – I didn’t think he would make this column in 2017, but now that he has, hear me out. Take a look at these DraftKings game totals: 19.3, 14.6, 27.25, 22.25, 22.80. Those are Sabathia’s last five fantasy performances on the road. He gets a very positive park shift here to Seattle. The Mariners have a mediocre .317 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and a worse than mediocre .137 ISO which is near the bottom of the league. On top of all that, Sabathia is up there with Wood on this slate in advanced stats. In his last start he allowed only a 143 batted ball distance, 82 mph exit velocity (best on slate), 62% ground ball rate, and only an 18% hard hit rate. I’m not saying you should go crazy and push all your chips in on Sabathia, I just think he’s a viable option here at a good price.

Batters to Target

Mike Moustakas – Moose gets to face a very generous pitcher to lefties, James Shields. As discussed before his last start, Shields is serving up the long ball to left-handed hitters at an astonishing rate, 3.86/9. His walk rate is also just a tick higher than his strikeout rate of 11.7%. Moustakas is sporting a healthy .361 wOBA to righties with a .282 ISO. He’s just too cheap to ignore on DraftKings at $3,600 and I think he’ll fit in just fine with my (spoiler alert) Astros and Marlins stacks.

Jose Ramirez – Ramirez hasn’t really been setting the world on fire lately like he was a few weeks back. With that said, he will return home from a West coast road trip, where he has been a much better hitter this season. His wOBA at home against righties is stellar at .458, to go with a .307 ISO. He is also impossible to strike out. He’ll face off against Marco Estrada here, who has allowed a .363 wOBA to righties and gives up fly balls nearly half the time. I have a gut feeling that Ramirez goes deep in this one.

Miguel Sano/Brian Dozier – This is a two-fer, but just because I can’t decide who I like better. I will probably be using both of these guys as a one off when and where they fit in. They both are heating back up and have an excellent matchup against Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez is allowing a .392 wOBA to righties with a 2.88 HR/9. One of these two (maybe both) is likely to go yard here.

Stacks to Target

Houston Astros – The best offense in baseball will do battle with one of the worst pitchers. Ubaldo Jimenez had an exceptional start four games ago, going eight strong with 8 K’s and zero earned runs. That was a fluke. If we throw that game out, he has given up 24 runs in his last 16 innings over four games. The Astros should shell him here. He has been especially bad at home, with a .452 wOBA to lefties and .386 wOBA to righties. Stack as many Astros as you can fit in here.

Miami Marlins – The Marlins aren’t an offense that I typically stack, but I like this spot here. Homer Bailey has been abysmal this season, but especially at home. He’s currently allowing a .402 wOBA to lefties and a .515 wOBA to righties, with a .447 batting average. The sample size is small here, but he has allowed a .560 wOBA at home against 41 batters. Let’s see how the Marlins lineup shakes out here, but in the small park against Bailey, I will have plenty of interest in many of their bats.

 

Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs

 

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Eric S
Eric is the creator of DFSdigest.com and has played fantasy football for nearly 20 years now and is primarily a GPP player in DFS. He estimates he enters lineups in either football, basketball, baseball or golf roughly 350 days a year. Eric is ranked inside the top 7% in RotoGrinders overall player ranking. His favorite teams include the Detroit Lions, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the Atlanta Braves.

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