Happy 4th of July! I hope everyone is enjoying their day and it is filled with family, food, fun, and fireworks! We have a special nine game main slate that starts at noon EST, so I’m going to write up those game. This will allow us to set our lineups before noon and spend the rest of the day having a great time, hopefully watching our scores climb the leaderboard!
This is an easy slate for me. I’ll be playing my two pitchers, my favorite stack, and mixing up the rest of my roster spots with one-offs (among my favorite individual hitters below).
Pitchers to Target
Jameson Taillon – Taillon has been great since rejoining the lineup in early June. Against Philadelphia, he will be my main pitcher on this slate. Looking at the advanced stats, he leads the slate in batted ball distance against over the last 15 days, as well as exit velocity against and fly ball percentage. He is third best in hard hit percentage against. I can’t find many, if any, reasons to not start your rosters with Taillon.
Jon Lester – Lester’s advanced stats have also been very good over the past fifteen days. He has the second best hard hit percentage against, as well as exit velocity and batted ball distance. His opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, strike out 26.5% of the time against left-handed pitchers, which bodes really well for Lester’s strikeout expectations. One other thing to watch here is the wind in Wrigley. Early predictions show it blowing in at almost 10 miles per hour. That is stronger than it seems in Wrigley and will help Lester that much more.
Batters to Target
Randall Grichuk – Grichuk has been hitting the ball well for the Cardinals. He’s been hitting right-handed pitching better, and his opponent, Jose Urena, has been allowing more success to hitters from the right side of the plate. Urena is allowing a .354 wOBA to righties and a 1.54 HR/9. Over the past 15 days, Grichuk has the fourth highest batted ball distance and exit velocity, as well as the second best hard hit percentage. I think we could see him take one deep in this one along with another base hit or two.
Kris Bryant – Bryant presents an interesting dilemma for me here. As mentioned above, the wind blowing in at Wrigley is something we have to consider. However, Bryant is currently posting a .433 wOBA and .368 ISO against left-handed pitching, all with a below average .268 BABIP. His price here is just too cheap, which has me strongly considering rostering him, even though I think it will be difficult to expect a home run out of him.
Regardless, two to three base hits with some RBI’s is well within the realm of possibilities, and that will pay off his measly $4,000 DraftKings salary. For what it’s worth, he will be facing Blake Snell, who has allowed a .364 wOBA to righties. ***CORRECTION*** Bryant will now be facing Chris Archer, so my interest is no longer here.
Eric Sogard – By no means do I fully buy into Sogard as an exceptional hitter. However, I have played him in the right matchups this season with success, and I think this is one of those matchups. At home against righties he has posted a .449 wOBA to go along with a .220 ISO. He’ll face Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed a .407 wOBA and a 3.23 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. Sogard is very cheap and fills the perfect positions to go along with my stack below.
Stacks to Target
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers get to face Matt Cain, and I have a very bad feeling for Cain here. As I mentioned above, I’m playing one stack, and here it is. On the road this season, Cain has allowed a .463 wOBA to left handed hitters and .380 to righties. The Tigers are way to cheap for this matchup, and I don’t see a reason to not play five hitters in your DraftKings stacks. I love Avila, Cabrera, Martinez, Kinsler, Castellanos and Upton.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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