Hi everyone! Welcome back to another daily fantasy preview as this week the PGA tour stops at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm for the Quicken Loans National.
Last week’s Travelers Championship was a lot of fun with Jordan Spieth defeating Daniel Berger in a playoff. I also gave you some good picks in this space as I predicted Spieth to win the tournament, and also recommended top 10 plays Charley Hoffman and Webb Simpson.
I hope that this tournament will be just as fun, though we are dealing with quite an underwhelming field here. Only one top ten player, 3 top 25 players and 11 top 50 players will be playing in this event. Truth be told, tournaments like this separate the wheat from the chaff in the DFS world and I look forward to picking out some gems.
The PGA Tour has not played at TPC Potomac in over 10 years, so there is no real course history to rely on. The course is a par 70 with only two par 5s and four par 3s which measures at around 7,100 yards. I think short game, around the green players will be successful, so I am looking at strokes gained around the green, scrambling, strokes gained approach, strokes gained tee to green and par 4 birdie or better percentage. Let’s get right to it.
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Rickie Fowler ($12,000 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) – Fowler is quite simply the class of the field this week. The only potential danger is that he takes his foot off the gas pedal. I am betting that Fowler is gunning for a victory and will be playing quite a bit of him. Rickie is 4th in the field in strokes gained approach, 3rd in scrambling and 3rd in strokes gained tee to green. Moreover, he is the highest ranked player in the field and Vegas’ favorite to win. Don’t overthink it. Play plenty of Rickie in both cash games and GPPs.
Justin Thomas ($10,900 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) – I am going back to the well with Thomas, despite him disappointing me last week. We are getting a bit of a discount with Thomas as he is Vegas’ 2nd favorite to win the event and is the 2nd ranked golfer in the field but is only the third most expensive player on both sites. More importantly than that, Thomas is first in the field in par 4 birdie or better percentage, 3rd in strokes gained approach and 4th in strokes gained tee to green. It is possible that Thomas is still suffering from a 2 week hangover after his disappointing 4th round at the US Open but I think he gets it together this week and finishes solidly in the top 10.
Upper Middle Class
Bill Haas ($9,500 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) – This course looks like it will be a tough one and Haas is a guy who avoids crooked numbers. I think he will grind his way around this track and finish solidly. Haas is 4th in the field in scrambling and 4th in strokes gained around the green. On top of the solid numbers, Haas has found his form recently with 3 straight top 25 finishes, including a 5th place at the US Open a couple of weeks back. I like Haas to hover near the top of the leaderboard all week.
Ollie Schniederjans ($8,300 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) – I just love how this guy plays golf. Olllie is the only player on tour who plays without a hat and he seems to knock his shots close to the pin on every hole. Ollie’s stats play that out as he is top 12 in this field in strokes gained approach and top 20 in strokes gained tee to green. Schniederjans has made 6 straight cuts and I expect him to do some damage this week.
Bud Cauley ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) – Cauley is a guy who I just love to play this season. I think he is actually a little bit underpriced on both sites and is easy to fit into your lineups. The Alabama grad is 2nd in the field in strokes gained approach and is top 20 in strokes gained tee to green. On top of that Cauley has made 6 of his last 7 cuts, with 3 top 10s and a few other top 25s sprinkled in. Cauley will appear in many of my lineups.
Kyle Stanley ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) – Sometimes DraftKings pricing makes no sense. In a much tougher field last week, Stanley was priced $1,000 higher. While Stanley ran into some trouble like always last week, he still managed to make the cut and card 14 birdies. Stanley leads the field in strokes gained approach and is second in strokes gained tee to green. You may have to hold your breath when he putts the ball, but I will be all over Stanley this week in both GPPs and cash games.
Bang for your Buck
Charles Howell III ($7,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) – I am not really sure what to make of Howell this week. Even in the best of times, he is a consistent cut maker but is not really a birdie making machine. And this week he is coming back after a layoff of several months due to a rib injury. I am ignoring all of that because he is an absolute beast in my stats of the week ranking 2nd in scrambling in this field and top 20 in strokes gained approach and strokes gained tee to green. Here’s to hoping Howell is not too rusty.
Bryson DeChambeau ($6,900 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) – This is my gut play of the week. I am a big DeChambeau fan and loves his technical approach to the game. This is a guy who is extremely talented, won the US Amateur and NCAA individual championship a few years back and has just not found his game yet on tour this year, with the exception of a 2nd place finish at the Puerto Rico Open in March. But after 7 straight missed cuts, DeChambeau finished a solid 26th place this past week at the Travelers. I have a hunch that this train is going to start running downhill. I should probably not put this in print, but something is telling me that DeChambeau wins the tournament this week. I will have plenty of shares and Bryson will likely make or break my week.
John Huh ($6,900 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) – Huh is a mudder who should perform well on this tough par 70 course. Huh is a short game expert, ranking 1st in this field in scrambling and is also in the top 30 in strokes gained around the green. While Huh’s form has been a bit mediocre of late, he has gotten off to good starts in tournaments before faltering late. I think this is the week that Huh puts it all together and shines.
Matt Jones ($6,700 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) – Speaking of short game specialists, Matt Jones is ranked first in this field in strokes gained around the green and is in the top 30 in strokes gained tee to green. This course should suit his style of play just fine. Jones comes in off of a nice top 20 performance at the FedEx St. Jude Classic on a somewhat similar course. I think Jones will easily exceed value this week.
OTHERS OF NOTE:
I will throw out a few others that I will be playing this week:
Russell Henley ($9,200 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) might be priced a little high on DraftKings, but he is certainly worth a play on FanDuel at that low cost.
Si Woo Kim ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) is probably the most talented guy in this field along with Fowler and Justin Thomas. The problem is, he might withdraw with a hangnail after the first hole. He is a good speculative GPP play as he might win this event, or go up in flames.
Xander Schauffele ($8,400 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) has been playing great recently as is reflected in his DraftKings price, but he is El Cheapo on FanDuel and will be all over my lineups.
Adam Hadwin ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has been struggling a bit recently, although still making cuts. It is hard to explain his price on DraftKings, so I will just take this gift and put him in my lineups.
Chris Kirk ($6,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) is my father-in-law, random recommendation of the week. He is in the top quarter of the field in strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green.
Good luck to all of you this week!
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