Batters to Target
Nelson Cruz – I don’t see many scenarios where I will leave Cruz off of a roster. He’s facing a lefty who has given up plenty of long balls. This play shouldn’t take much explanation.
Alex Avila – Avila continues to smash the ball and be underpriced. I will plug him in at catcher as long as I can at this price and while he’s hitting the ball this well.
Matt Adams – Adams is most definitely a play against Aaron Nola. The new park in Atlanta has been great for lefty power, Adams has been hitting the ball well since settling in to his new home, and the Braves seem extremely please to have him in their organization.
Justin Upton – Upton has been killing it, and I think he has a great chance to go deep in this game. Jesse Chavez has struggled with giving up the long ball against righties. I’m predicting Upton to go yard in this one.
Stacks to Target
At the moment, I’m not seeing any stacks I just love. Even when you examine the betting odds at sbobetasia there does not seem to be one particular matchup that screams to be exploited. I think I’ll be targeting one-offs and maybe two-man mini stacks. I feel like I can really get the most upside out of my roster construction by picking and choosing my batters individually rather than looking to plug in four or five batters from one team.
Pitchers to Target
Jaime Garcia – Garcia has been exceptional over his past two starts, posting excellent advanced stats such as a 154 batted ball distance (best on the slate), 86 mph exit velocity (second best on the slate), 75% ground ball rate (second best on the slate), and a hard hit percentage of 12 (best on the slate). To add to all of that, his opponent, the Phillies, are a team we like to target pitchers against. They do have a bit more upside against lefties and hitting in this park, but I’ll take my chances on Garcia at his price.
James Paxton – Paxton has been exceptional in four home starts this year with a 0.35 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The Twins have a slate low team total at 3.3 runs. In seven total starts he has given up zero runs in five of them. He also has eight or more strikeouts in four of the seven games with a low of five in any game. I love him at his price on DraftKings.
Robbie Ray – Ray is finally priced up where he should be, but he’s still playable here in this matchup against the San Diego Padres. The Padres are dead last against left-handed pitching with a 0.262 wOBA. Ray is a bit risky here as he has had some trouble pitching at home, but he’s a solid tournament play with his strikeout upside and weak opponent.
Chris Archer – Speaking of the worst, the White Sox are third worst in the league against right-handed pitching with a 0.294 wOBA and they strike out 23.2% of the time. Archer has as much strikeout upside as anyone and has averaged over eight more points at home this season than on the road. Everything points to Archer being a solid play across the board.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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