Hi everyone! It is great to be back both writing about and playing daily fantasy golf. Last week, both DraftKings and FanDuel took the week off because the PGA was playing a team event. In my opinion, the sites missed a good opportunity to make some good money, but that was not my decision to make.
This week we are back to a regular individual stroke play event with the players teeing it up in Wilmington, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship. Usually the Wells Fargo is held at Quail Hollow Country Club, but this year Quail Hollow is the site of the PGA Championship in August and the course is getting prepped for that event. That means for the first time ever, the PGA will have an event at Eagle Point Country Club.
From all that I have read, this is a long golf course with fairly easy to hit fairways. I am favoring mostly long hitters off the tee, even those with accuracy issues, and I also like guys with a high birdie percentage. Let’s see what we come up with.
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Dustin Johnson ($13,000 DraftKings; $11,500 FanDuel) – The #1 player in the world is back in action after missing a month due to his bizarre injury prior to the Masters. Due to his hefty price tag and fears about rust, I have read that DJ will not be as heavily owned as usual this week. He is far and away the best player in the field, and I would take advantage if others choose to fade him.
Remember, Johnson has won in his last three starts and this course sets up well for him. I would be shocked if he was not on the top 5 of the leaderboard by week’s end.
Wesley Bryan ($9,100 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel) – There is a clear #2 player in the field behind Dustin Johnson and that is Jon Rahm – but it is very difficult to get both Rahm and DJ in a DraftKings lineup (more possible on FanDuel) and I prefer DJ to Rahm.
I really like Wesley Bryan this week as a pivot off of Rahm. Bryan is in great form, having finished in the top 10 of 4 of his last 6 individual events, including the inaugural win of his career in his last solo start. He is also a Carolina kid (although from South Carolina) and should be comfortable at the event this week. Bryan is an especially great play on FanDuel at his heavily discounted price.
Upper Middle Class
Daniel Berger ($8,300 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel) – Daniel Berger is a favorite target of mine this week as he is someone who sometimes struggles with driving accuracy (ranked 93rd on tour in that stat), but is good with driving distance and strokes gained off the tee. Berger is also a birdie maker, ranking 15th on the PGA tour in birdie percentage and 29th on tour in scoring average. I think this course sets up nicely for him and I expect a good week for Mr. Berger.
J.B. Holmes ($8,000 DraftKings; $8,400 FanDuel) – Las Vegas agrees with my love of Holmes this week, as he is listed as their 11th favorite to win the event, while he is the 17th highest priced golfer on DraftKings. Holmes is exactly the type of guy that I want to target this week – he is ranked 26th in driving distance on tour but 204th in driving accuracy.
In a wide open layout, with roughs that are not too penal, Holmes should be able to do just fine, even if his drives are a bit wayward. This is another birdie maker, ranking 35th on tour in that stat. I think Holmes will be a top 10 player this week.
William McGirt ($7,900 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel) – For those of you who are close followers of the PGA tour, this pick will look somewhat strange given the picks I have offered above. McGirt is actually fairly short off the tee yet his driving accuracy is near the top of the tour.
That having been said, McGirt comes in playing good golf, with top 25 finishes in his last 3 individual events, including two top tens. McGirt also ranks 25th on tour in bogey avoidance, which should be crucial this week with heavily undulated greens and the potential for strong winds. I like McGirt for a solid top 20 finish.
Patton Kizzire ($7,800 DraftKings; $5,500 FanDuel) – I did not know where to slot Kizzire in my categories this week, so I put him here because he is “middle class” per DraftKings pricing. Truth be told, I have very little Kizzire exposure on DraftKings at $7,800, but he is in the majority of my FanDuel lineups at $5,500 where he is mispriced.
Kizzire looked great last week at the team play Zurich Classic, where he tied for 5th. He also fits the profile of the type of golfer I expect to do well this week. A talented guy who is sometimes done in by his accuracy issues off the tee. The Alabama product should be in for a good finish this week.
Bang for your Buck
Kevin Tway ($7,200 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel) – Tway, the son of former PGA Champion Bob Tway, has had a relatively unheralded career thus far. But he is currently in the middle of the greatest stretch he has played on tour with two consecutive 3rd place finishes over his last two tournaments. Tway is an absolute beast off the tee where he is ranked 11th in driving distance and 31st in strokes gained off the tee.
Stop me if you have heard this already, but where he can sometimes struggle is in driving accuracy where he is ranked outside the top 150. This course is perfectly suited for this very hot player, who is severely underpriced on FanDuel. Take advantage and fly to the top of the leaderboards.
Luke List ($6,900 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel) – My father-in-law is a huge golf fan, and we like to spend some time discussing my picks of the week before I lock them in. He is now referring to Luke List as “The Shit List” because he has missed the cut by one stroke the last three times that I have played him. No matter. I love List’s price on both sites and he once again fits the profile of the type of player who should do well at this venue.
List ranks 12th in birdie average, 2nd in driving distance, 23rd in bogey avoidance and (broken record time) only 181st in driving accuracy. He should have some success this week.
Alex Noren ($6,600 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel) – I have no exposure to Noren on FanDuel where he is priced properly, but on DraftKings, Noren is not even one of the top 70 priced golfers despite him being the 12th ranked golfer in the world, and 3rd ranked golfer in the entire field this week. Noren is not a phenomenal course fit and he is not in his best form, but he is more than talented enough to put in your rosters at this ridiculously low price on DraftKings.
Graeme McDowell ($6,500 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel) – McDowell is very similar to Noren in that he is all over my DraftKings lineups and in a scant few on FanDuel. Vegas has McDowell with the 23rd best odds to win this event, and yet DraftKings has priced him with the scrubs at the bottom of their salaries. McDowell is a rock solid golfer who should easily make the cut, as he has top 30 finishes in 6 of his last 7 events. For this bargain basement price on DraftKings, he is definitely worth a play.
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