Pitchers to Target
Trevor Cahill – Cahill is an absolute no brainer on DraftKings. His batted ball against profile is exceptional over his last two starts with a 171′ distance and a 68% ground ball rate. Both of those numbers lead all pitchers on this slate. Many people will stay away from him based on his opponent, the Rockies, but they’re not near as scary away from Coors. Cahill has 30 strikeouts on the year in 24 innings, so the upside is there.
Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka’s strikeout numbers have been underwhelming, but I’m not too worried about that here. He’s been an innings eater and has also shown a nice batted ball (against) profile. I think his strikeout numbers will begin to come up. Three of his last four opponents have been in the bottom-10 in the league in K%. His opponent on Tuesday, the Blue Jays, are in the bottom-10 at 22% and have the third worst wOBA so far against right-handed pitching. I think this could be a spot where he goes deep into the game with minimal damage, but also sees upwards of 7-8 strikeouts.
Stacks to Target
New York Yankees – The Yankees might be the chalk stack Tuesday, but I want to keep an eye on estimated ownership percentages as we get closer to lock. Mat Latos is on the mound, and he gets a very negative park shift from his last start in St. Louis. Latos struggles to strike anyone out, and I think the Yankees will have no issues putting the ball in play and knocking a few over the wall. Tanaka is a stronger play on FanDuel due to his price. A contrarian strategy would be to pair Tanaka with three batters from the bottom half of the order. (HINT: This would include Aaron Judge).
St. Louis Cardinals – This one is a bit more contrarian. While the park isn’t the greatest for hitting, I think Wily Peralta is on the verge of exploding. Peralta has had 25 or more points (FanDuel) in four of his five starts, so a novice player will see that and not want to target against him. But the regression monster is coming for him and it’s coming for him hard! On the slate, he has the second worst batted ball distance against as well as the second worst exit velocity against, hard hit percentage, fly ball rate, and the second lowest ground ball rate. It’s worth taking a chance on this stack in hopes that the blow up happens Tuesday. If it doesn’t, double down against him in his next start.
Batters to Target
Jay Bruce – It should be no secret to you by now that I put a lot of weight in batted ball stats. Bruce has been an absolute animal in that regard. Among players with ten starts, he leads the entire slate in batted ball distance and exit velocity. The new ball park in Atlanta has shown to be a hitters park so far this season, and I like Bruce’s chances to take R.A. Dickey deep in this one.
Miguel Sano – If you haven’t noticed by now, Sano has been knocking the cover off of the baseball and making fantasy owners a lot of money over the last week. I’m going to ride his hot streak against Sonny Gray, returning from the DL. Gray struggled against righties last year with only a 17% strikeout rate, while giving up 1.87 HR/9.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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