DraftKings Picks: Divisional Round

After a disappointing Wild Card weekend, here’s to hoping the Divisional Round games are more competitive in the NFL.  The beautiful thing about DraftKings is that even if the games are not great, we can still have fun tracking our fantasy players.  Let’s see if we can make our last week a winner.

Click Here for this weekends FanDuel recommendations.

If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.

 

Quarterbacks

Luxury Items

Matt Ryan vs. Seahawks ($7,000) – Ryan is the prohibitive favorite for league MVP this year, and for good reason.  He threw multiple touchdowns in his last four games and led the way for the Falcons to be one of the top offenses in the NFL.  These same Seahawks did little to slow Ryan back in week 6 when he threw for 335 yards and 3 TDs.  That game was in Seattle and with Earl Thomas in the lineup.  I expect Ryan to perform just as well, if not better, this week. 

Bang for Your Buck

Dak Prescott vs. Packers ($6,000) – Everyone is fawning over Aaron Rodgers these days, and with good reason.  He has been otherworldly for the last 6 weeks.  That having been said, the Packers’ pass defense is abysmal, ranking 2nd from the bottom in yards allowed through the air and worst in pass yards per attempt.  Prescott loves himself some home cooking as he has 18+ DraftKings points in every game at home since week 1.  And in week 6 he shredded these Packers for 247 passing yards and 3 TDs.  The price is right for Dak this week, and I will be playing him plenty.

Running Back

Luxury Items

LeVeon Bell vs. Chiefs ($10,500) – Bell will once again be owned over 50% in GPPs and probably nearly 80%+ in cash games, but I still would not fade.  The Steelers’ star has 25+ DraftKings points in 8 of his last 9 weeks, including 30+ in 3 of his last 4.  Additionally, Bell has gone over 100 total yards in his last 8 games.  This week he faces the Chiefs who struggle stopping the run, ranking 26th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and 26th in rush yards allowed.  Bell gashed the Chiefs for 178 total yards in week 4.  Expect more of the same this week.

Bang for your Buck

LeGarrette Blount vs. Texans ($5,800) – Blount is a touchdown machine, meaning he should be a staple of your cash game lineups.  He led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns and scored in his last 5 games.  Against these Texans in week 3, Blount ran for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Patriots should grab and early lead and we will likely see a lot of Blount force trauma.

Discount Bin

Christine Michael vs. Cowboys ($4,300) – I would save this play for GPPs, but Ty Montgomery was both ineffective and hurt last week, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Michael will get at least half of the carries for the Packers.  It may not matter much as the Cowboys are stout against the run, allowing the fewest rush yards this year.  That having been said, this is a great price and it would not surprise me to see Michael run for 50+ yards and a score.

Dion Lewis ($3,900) and/or James White ($3,400) vs. Texans – The pickings are slim at this stage in the season, and at this price point.  But the Texans rank 28th in DVOA versus running backs catching balls out of the backfield.  Both Lewis and White are potent receivers, and the Patriots may use a bunch of 2 back sets early on to force linebackers into covering these guys.  I prefer Lewis slightly as he has double-digit touches in his last 3 games, but both are nice cheap punt plays.

Wide Receiver

Luxury Items

Julio Jones vs. Seahawks ($8,400) – I am sort of hoping that most people pivot off of Jones and pay up for Antonio Brown instead, as I think Julio will be the top WR play of the weekend.  Jones had no trouble with Seattle in week 6, catching 7 balls for 139 yards and a touchdown.  I expect the Falcons to throw the ball a ton as Seattle is 2nd in DVOA against the run, but only 13th against the pass.  Look for a big game from Jones.

Bang for your Buck

Dez Bryant vs. Packers  ($6,600) – Bryant has been stellar at home this season with 6 TDs and averaging 17.3 DraftKings points per game.  The Packers give up a ton of passing yards, 2nd most in the league, and really struggle against #1 receivers ranking 28th in DVOA.  I expect Bryant to have a big game.

Tyreke Hill vs. Steelers ($5,500) – Hill has emerged as a huge weapon for the Chiefs and should have plenty of opportunity to shine on Sunday.  The Steelers rank dead last in DVOA versus #1 receivers and are also a middling 18th versus the deep ball.  Look for the Chiefs to find a multitude of ways to get Hill the ball and for Hill to produce a good game.

Discount Bin

Paul Richardson vs. Falcons ($4,100) – Richardson has become a real factor for the Seahawks passing offense, and that was on full display last week as he caught a highlight reel touchdown (while ripping off Tavon Wilson’s facemask).  He has 40+ yards in his last 3 games and touchdowns in 2 of his last 3.  I like him for a solid game.

Tight End

Luxury Item

Travis Kelce vs. Steelers ($6,100) – I mentioned in the Tyreke Hill section that the Steelers rank last in DVOA versus #1 receivers — and Kelce may very well be the Chiefs’ #1 receiver.  He has 100+ receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games and is far and away the best tight end on the board.  If you can afford to spend up at the position, Kelce is your man.

Bang for your Buck

CJ Fiederowicz vs. Patriots ($3,600) – Fiedorowicz is a consistent part of the Texans offense with 7+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games and 5+ targets every week from week 4 through 17.  The Patriots don’t give up a lot of points, but they do give up yards between the 20s.  Look for a bunch of catches from Fiedorowicz, which will pay off at this price.

Defense/Special Teams

Bang for your buck

Patriots vs. Texans ($4,000) – The Texans are far and away the worst offense left in the playoffs.  They will struggle to score against New England, and the Pats defense should score in double-digits.

Falcons vs. Seahawks ($2,600) – If you can’t afford the Patriots, I like the Falcons defense to score a few points.  Seattle has offensive line problems, and the Falcons can rush the passer.  They will likely have a decent game.

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.
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