Wow. Week 16. Time really flies. If I had to guess for a majority of you this is the championship, or at least week one of a two-week final.
I know for weeks I have been saying trust the research, and I do think that is true, but there is something about championship week that changes things.
What can you live with? Can you live with sitting Julio Jones for Julian Edelman only to see Jones be himself and go for 150 yards and two touchdowns while you lose by 10 points? It is one thing to have to live with these calls for a week, maybe two, but knowing all offseason that not trusting your gut cost you a chance for the title is hard to stomach.
I wish all of you good luck this week. Don’t forget most of the games are played Saturday this week so get those lineups in.
You will notice that I didn’t go for lowly owned plays this week. I can’t imagine many people out there are dumpster diving for a week 16 starter. But I do understand it does happen.
Happy holidays, and week 17 championship people check back next week for one final start or sit article.
If you have any players you have a question on feel free to ask in the comment section below or on Twitter. Follow @TheSportsGuy40
Finally, please check out No Halftime, it is the ultimate start and sit DFS platform. Think Eli Manning outscores Cam Newton? Put a contest out there and put your money where your mouth is, or find an existing challenge to accept. No Halftime also has contests in other sports as well.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Ravens: Big Ben at home is one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league. The matchup is tough, but for some reason he plays like a borderline Hall of Fame quarterback at home and is average at best on the road.
What you can expect: 300 yards, three touchdowns
Derek Carr vs Colts: The Colts have been shredded through the air numerous times this season. Three straight “good” games against quarterbacks should be overlooked because of the schedule. They played the Jets, Texans, and Vikings.
What you can expect: 275 yards, two touchdowns
Marcus Mariota @ Jaguars: The Jaguars do have a better defense than it may seem, but the offense puts them in bad situations over and over again. Last time these two teams played Mariota threw for 270 and two touchdowns and didn’t do much in the second half.
What you can expect: 275 yards, two touchdowns, 25 yards rushing
Philip Rivers @ Browns: I am going back to Rivers even after three straight down weeks. The matchup plus the Chargers don’t appear to have much going in the ground game without Gordon should mean Rivers gets the chance to throw for a couple touchdowns.
What you can expect: 275 yards, three touchdowns
Matt Stafford @ Cowboys: Just another bad matchup for Stafford. I love the guy and his real life ability, but this just isn’t a high scoring offense, and he is playing a team that tries to play ball control.
What you can expect: 250 yards, one touchdown
Carson Palmer @ Seahawks: I can’t imagine anyone that is still alive considering Palmer, but just in case.
What you can expect: 250 yards, one touchdown, one interception
Dak Prescott vs. Lions: This is similar to what I said with Stafford. Also for Prescott, I think Elliott could have another pretty nice game.
What you can expect: 200 yards, one touchdown
Ty Montgomery vs. Vikings: He is so versatile that no matter what the defense is good at defending, he is valuable. He won’t do what he did last week, but I would be surprised if they didn’t give him 15 touches this week. It is worth noting that his two huge games did come against the Bears.
What you can expect: 75 yards rushing, five catches for 50 yards
Doug Martin @ Saints: Matchup plus workload. Martin is going to lead the backfield once again, and while the Saints are playing better this is still not a defense to fear.
What you can expect: 75 yards rushing, one touchdown, two catches for 10 yards
Todd Gurley vs. 49ers: If you had him and you are still alive congratulations; you did some amazing in season management. This matchup is great. Yes, he did struggle against them week one, but this defense is far worse now.
What you can expect: 70 yards rushing, one touchdown, three catches for 20 yards
Latavius Murray vs. Colts: DeAndre Washington was active again last week and Murray saw a pretty steep dropoff in work, but he still managed over 90 total yards. The Colts can be beat on the ground or the air. It just depends on what the Raiders want to do.
What you can expect: 80 yards rushing, one touchdown
Lamar Miller vs. Bengals: A lot of people won’t have the luxury to sit Miller due to a lack of options. He is beat up and has hinted at how beat up he is a few times this season. I wouldn’t be shocked if Miller was inactive or had a limited workload.
What you can expect: 45 yards rushing
Mark Ingram vs. Buccaneers: I just never know what side of the workload he is going to fall on in any given week. When these teams faced off in week 14 the Saints couldn’t do anything on the ground.
What you can expect: 50 yards rushing
Kenneth Farrow @ Browns: Sure the matchup is great. I just don’t know if he handles the full workload, and even if he does how good will it be.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Bengals: It’s crazy how much the perception of Hopkins has changed when the Texans finally benched Osweiler. Savage targeted him a ton last week in limited action, I would expect something similar again this week.
What you can expect: Eight catches for 120 yards, one touchdown
Golden Tate @ Cowboys: The one Lion I want to start this week.
What you can expect: Seven catches for 80 yards
Davante Adams vs. Vikings: Two bad drops kept him from having a huge game last week. If Rodgers isn’t afraid to go back to him he could have the big week this time.
What you can expect: Five catches for 80 yards, one touchdown
Brandin Cooks vs. Buccaneers: Last week showed why we don’t bench these boom or bust type players. Sure Cooks might have a 2 for 20 this week, but he could also single-handedly win you your week.
What you can expect: Five catches for 90 yards
Terrelle Pryor vs. Chargers: His finger is messed up and needs surgery after the season. I wouldn’t start him again this season.
What you can expect: Two catches for 20 yards
Tyreek Hill vs. Broncos: You can’t bank on the low touches. Hill has big play ability, but unlike Cooks if he doesn’t break one random big play he might end up with a goose egg.
What you can expect: Two catches for 20 yards, 15 yards rushing
Jamison Crowder @ Bears: It looks like the Redskins tried to get DeSean Jackson involved underneath last week. This is bad news for Crowder who is primarily used underneath.
What you can expect: Three catches for 25 yards
A.J. Green @ Texans: Remember my intro part about benching a stud and watching him go off and having to deal with it all offseason? Well I think Green is a bench chance that I am willing to take. I don’t like to trust guys in the first game back from a muscle pull and in the title game against a pretty solid secondary. I just can’t start him.
What you can expect: Two catches for 30 yards
Martellus Bennett vs. Jets: The position is just straight disgusting right now. Bennett is as good a bet as any for an 80-yard two touchdown game as anyone with the same 30 yard floor.
What you can expect: Five catches for 65 yards, one touchdown
C.J. Fiedorowicz vs. Bengals: He might be the safest tight end out there. Barring injury he is a near lock for 40 yards it seems. Isn’t it sad that at this point 40 yards is actually ok?
What you can expect: Six catches for 70 yards
Antonio Gates @ Browns: He is on the verge of breaking Tony Gonzalez’s touchdown record for tight ends. It is just a hunch, but in a lost season I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chargers try to force him the ball when they get near the end zone against the hopeless Browns.
What you can expect: Four catches for 50 yards, one touchdown
Vernon Davis @ Bears: I can’t imagine Jordan Reed plays after how much pain he appeared to be in on Monday. Davis has shown he is a solid next man up candidate.
What you can expect: Four catches for 60 yards
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