How is everyone doing this week? As I have told you all a few times, I usually make 6-8 lineups a week in football, pivoting around my main core and play GPP only. Last week when constructing one of my lineups, I noticed that all of my players were playing in 1:00 games, so I decided to take that lineup and play it an early slate only tournament. I had never done that before, and I must say, it is a lot of fun. I think I will be doing that again this week and will try to play a 4 p.m. only slate as well. It’s late in the season, so it is fun to mix it up a bit. Let’s see who I like this week.
For you FanDuel players, don’t forget to check out my buddy Eric’s Plays and Stay Aways – which come out on Fridays!
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears ($7,100) – It is going to be bloody cold in Chicago this week, but I don’t care and neither will Rodgers, who has never been too affected by the cold weather. He also likes to face the Bears, as Rodgers threw for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 7 against Chicago. That was the start of a hot streak, as Rodgers has now hit 8 straight games with multiple touchdown throws. The Packers need this game, and I think that Rodgers will be great.
Bang for Your Buck
Derek Carr vs. Chargers ($6,300) – DFS players often only remember the most recent week’s games, and Carr surely hurt many lineups last week. That usually means lower ownership numbers, which we love for GPPs. Despite his poor outing against the Chiefs, Carr has been stellar this season and has multiple touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games. He also destroyed the Chargers in week 5, throwing for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns. I am hoping that Carr will be 5% owned or less and I will reap the rewards. I hope you will do the same.
Tyrod Taylor vs. Browns ($5,700) – Cleveland is dreadful, as we all know, and rank 31st in DVOA versus the pass. Even more importantly for a run first QB like Taylor, they rank 32nd in DVOA versus the run. Taylor is cheap and could have a really impressive showing.
David Johnson vs. Saints ($10,100) – After LeVeon Bell’s superhuman effort last week, I predict that Bell will be owned twice as highly as Johnson. I will try to get both in a lineup, but I slightly prefer Johnson this week. I need not remind you that Johnson is the most consistent player in fantasy as he has 100+ total yards every game and has 7+ targets in each of his last 7 games. He also boasts 27+ DraftKings points in each of his last 4 home games. I like his match-up against the Saints better than Bell’s against the Bengals. I am all about the Johnson this week.
Devonta Freeman vs. 49ers ($6,900) – There are actually many running backs in great spots this week and I would not argue with you playing LeVeon Bell, LeSean McCoy or Ezekiel Elliott – and I will have exposure to all three. But I think the best combination of predicted low ownership and good performance will be for Freeman. He ruined the playoffs for many season long players last week with an abysmal performance and I predict people will pivot off of him. However, Freeman has scored multiple touchdowns in his last 3 home games and faces a defense ranked 31st in defensive efficiency against the run. I like him for a huge game.
Bang for your Buck
Jordan Howard vs. Packers ($6,000) – Howard is a really impressive rookie running back and has not slowed down as the season has gone on. He has 99+ total yards in his last 6 games, including last week’s stellar performance. Howard seems to be match-up proof and I like him to have another nice outing.
Lamar Miller vs. Colts ($5,100) – The Texans remain in must win mode and they quite simply cannot throw the ball with Brock Osweiler. Miller is their best offensive player and the Texans will likely ride him to the tune of 20-25 carries this week. If he gets that volume, he should do great as he had 83 yards on only 15 carries against Jacksonville in week 10. I think he easily surpasses 100 rushing yards and has a good chance to get into the end zone.
Kenneth Farrow vs. Raiders ($4,400) – The Chargers are running out of healthy bodies as Melvin Gordon is out with an injury once again. Farrow should get the majority of carries for San Diego and he gets a sweetheart match-up as the Raiders are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency against the run. He is a great value play.
Kenneth Dixon vs. Eagles ($4,200) – Dixon has really started to become a factor in the Ravens’ backfield as he has double-digit DraftKings points in his last 3 games and in 4 of 5 outings. Dixon has had 70+ total yards in his last 3 games, which further reflects his increased usage. And last week, his passing game usage went way up with 11 targets. For this price and against a team ranked 21st in covering running backs out of the backfield, I love Dixon to exceed value.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Lions ($8,000) – Beckham has been one of the most consistent receivers this season as he has 7+ targets every game and 9+ targets in 11 of 13 outings. Beckham, of course, makes the most of his targets and he has 90+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games and 6 touchdowns in his last 6 games. Facing off against the 30th ranked pass defense per DVOA, Beckham should have another stellar game.
Jordy Nelson vs. Bears ($7,300) – Nelson has had a real nose for the end zone this season with 12 TDs and he has remained really hot, finding the end zone in 6 of his last 7 games. But Nelson has not only scored touchdowns as he has 90+ receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games. He is a fine option to pair with Aaron Rodgers in GPPs.
Amari Cooper vs. Chargers ($7,100) – Cooper has been struggling a bit as of late, but he continues to get looks, as he had double-digit targets last game. A receiver this talented who keeps getting fed the ball will have a breakthrough game soon. I like the breakthrough to come against San Diego, against whom Cooper went for 138 yards and a touchdown in week 5.
Bang for your Buck
DeMaryius Thomas vs. Patriots ($6,300) – I love this price for the guy who is 10th in the NFL in receiving yards on the season. Thomas has found Trevor Siemian’s eye as he has double digit targets in 7 of his last 8 games. The Patriots’ defense has been pretty good of late, but they still rank only 27th in pass defense DVOA. Look for another solid outing from Thomas.
Tyrell Williams vs. Raiders ($5,800) – As you can probably tell, given the high amount of players I am recommending from this game, I like the Chargers/Raiders tilt to be one of the more high scoring affairs of the week. Tyrell Williams should once again be a beneficiary as he has touchdowns in his last 3 home games and has 4 touchdowns in his last 5 games overall.
Taylor Gabriel vs. 49ers ($5,600) – Julio Jones is out again (though Mohammed Sanu looks to be playing), so Gabriel should get plenty of opportunities against the mediocre defense of San Francisco. Gabriel will likely make the most of his opportunities as he had 82 yards and a touchdown last week and has 4 touchdowns over his last 4 games. Let’s also not forget that Gabriel has speed to burn and the 49ers rank dead last in DVOA against the deep ball. This could be a tremendous game.
Rishard Matthews vs. Chiefs ($4,600) – Matthews struggled against the Broncos last week, but every receiver struggles against the best secondary in the NFL. Prior to that game, Matthews had amassed 60+ receiving yards in 4 straight games and had found the end zone 5 times in his previous 5 games. This price seems very low for a receiver who is very much in form.
Allen Robinson vs. Texans ($4,400) – It has been a very disappointing season for Robinson, but this price point is ridiculous. Robinson is still 9th in the NFL in targets and should see the rock plenty against Houston. And it was only a few weeks ago in week 10 that Robinson caught 9 balls for 107 yards and a touchdown against these very same Texans. At $4,400, this pick is a no-brainer for me.
JJ Nelson vs. Saints ($3,900) – With Michael Floyd’s release, Nelson will find himself as the #2 receiver for Arizona on many plays. And while, he is not a high volume guy, I like the Cardinals to try to throw a few deep balls to Nelson, which should work against the Saints who are ranked 30th in DVOA against the deep pass. The last time I recommended Nelson, he went for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns. Who is willing to see if lightning strikes twice?
Tyler Eifert vs. Steelers ($5,600) – With Gronk out for the season due to his back injury, Eifert is now the league’s most dangerous and consistent red zone threat. He has started to show his mettle by scoring 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. Eifert is a good bet to find the end zone again against Pittsburgh this week.
Bang for your Buck
Cameron Brate vs. Saints ($3,800) – Brate is quietly one of the top tight ends in the league these days. He has 5+ targets in 6 of his last 7 games and 45+ yards in 5 of his last 6. The Cowboys are brutal against the tight end, ranking 31st in defensive efficiency. Brate could be in for a nice game on Sunday night.
Ryan Griffin vs. Jaguars ($2,500) – As we all know, Brock Osweiler loves throwing short to his tight ends, and his favorite tight end, CJ Fiedorowicz is out this week. That means that Griffin will be thrust into the starting lineup. Even with Fiedorowicz playing, Griffin has had 5+ targets 8 times this season. With no Fiedorowicz, I expect Griffin to approach 10 targets. This could be an amazing value play for the absolute lowest price for a position player. If you are looking for a creative way to get David Johnson and LeVeon Bell into your lineups, Griffin is a good play at TE or even FLEX.
Bang for your buck
Patriots vs. Broncos ($2,800) – The Patriots defense has been coming on strong recently and the Broncos offense just is not that good. I love this price for the Pats D.
Ravens vs. Eagles ($3,100) – Despite struggling last week, the Ravens have an elite defensive unit. Carson Wentz and the Eagles are not so formidable on the offensive side of the ball. The Ravens should be a safe source of fantasy production.
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