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Start or Sit Week 14

Week 14 marks the start of the fantasy playoffs for a lot of owners, meaning this week is do or die.

I have mentioned it before and will say it again: don’t second guess something if it makes sense. Playoff time usually has a lot of second guessing because of the finality of it all.

Do your research, make decisions, and live with the results. That is what the playoffs are all about – that and being able to hold a championship victory and bragging rights over your friends.

If you have any players you have a question on feel free to ask in the comment section below or on Twitter.

Finally, please check out No Halftime, it is the ultimate start and sit DFS platform. Think Eli Manning outscores Cam Newton? Put a contest out there and put your money where your mouth is, or find an existing challenge to accept. No Halftime also has contests in other sports as well.

No HalfTime BannerQuarterback

Start

Philip Rivers @ Panthers: Arbitrary endpoint alert here, but since week six the Panthers have allowed at least 285 yards in all but one game. The secondary, and maybe the whole defense, is struggling right now. Rivers should be in line for a nice game.

What you can expect: 300 yards, two touchdowns, one interception

Andy Dalton @ Browns: I don’t love him because he won’t have AJ Green again. I think the Bengals have a lot of scoring chances this week, the only concern is that Jeremy Hill might punch in two touchdowns from inside the five.

What you can expect: 275 yards, two touchdowns

Jameis Winston vs. Saints: The Saints defense has been a lot better lately, but quarterbacks are still a decent bet. Only Cam Newton on Thursday night and a still not healthy Russell Wilson have failed to throw for multiple touchdowns since week three.

What you can expect: 300 yards, two touchdowns

Sit

Marcus Mariota vs. Broncos: The Broncos have only allowed 20 points to quarterbacks twice this season, and I don’t think it changes this week. The floor is low and the ceiling is capped.

What you can expect: 250 yards, one touchdown, one interception, 20 yards rushing

Eli Manning vs. Cowboys: Eli hasn’t been anything special this season, and the Cowboys have been a bad matchup for quarterbacks because of the ball control offense.

What you can expect: 250 yards, one touchdown

Dak Prescott @ Giants: Like Eli, I don’t love the matchup here. Dak has a “not going to kill you” type floor, but I think the ceiling is limited. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in the past two weeks.

What you can expect: 260 yards, one touchdown, 20 yards rushing

Running Back

Start

Matt Forte @ 49ers: I am sticking to the “he puts up fantasy numbers in close games or games they win” theory, the Patriots game being the exception. It doesn’t hurt that this game is against the 49ers.

What you can expect: 80 yards, one touchdown, two catches for 15 yards

Jeremy Hill @ Browns: Once you get outside the big three at running back I think Hill has the best chance to score this week, maybe even twice. I am not turned off by the bad performance last week.

What you can expect: 90 yards rushing, one touchdown, two catches for 15 yards

Rob Kelley @ Eagles: What hurt Kelley the past two weeks were a combination of bad matchups and low snap counts due to the score. I think this one stays close enough to get Kelley his full workload.

What you can expect: 80 yards rushing, one touchdown

Sit

Devontae Booker @ Titans: He has only cracked 100 total yards once, and that was a 101-yard game against the Chiefs. The line hasn’t been great, but Booker hasn’t been either. Don’t fear about the rumored “split” with Forsett, at least for this week.

What you can expect: 50 yards rushing, two catches 20 yards

LeGarrette Blount vs. Ravens: The Ravens have been really good against the run this year so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots come out leaning on the pass. This would be a really tough sit for me based on how great he has been this year. I see him as a low-end RB2, and there is a decent chance you have a better option for this week.

What you can expect: 65 yards rushing

Jay Ajayi vs. Cardinals: If Blount was a tough sit, what is Ajayi? There is a lot going against him. The tough matchup along with a beat up line bumps him from borderline top-10 back to around 20.

What you can expect: 50 yards, one catch for five yards

Digging deep

Jerick McKinnon @ Jaguars: He is always going to have that low chance at scoring, but this could be a game the Vikings get a lead and are able to run the ball a decent amount. I wouldn’t expect a score, but if you’re desperate he could get some decent yards.

What you can expect: 60 yards, three catches for 20 yards


Wide Receiver

Start

Tyrell Williams @ Panthers: He played a normal amount of snaps last week despite the injury. I would expect something similar this week. Owners were bailed out by a touchdown grab, I think this week will be better.

What you can expect: Five catches for 90 yards, one touchdown

Jamison Crowder @ Eagles: The matchup is nice and Crowder is the safest of the Redskins receivers. He has a touchdown or 80 yards in every game since week 6.

What you can expect: Six catches for 90 yards, one touchdown

Sammy Watkins vs. Steelers: I think he is healthy. The Steelers have been a bad matchup for receivers, but a healthy Sammy Watkins isn’t just any old receiver. If you believe he is healthy he has to be in your lineup. If you don’t bench him.

What you can expect: Four catches for 90 yards, one touchdown

Sit

Allen Robinson vs. Vikings: If this week matters for you it isn’t because of Robinson. Well, maybe it is; you might be better if you didn’t have him. The matchup is tough and Robinson is very touchdown dependent. 

What you can expect: Two catches for 25 yards

Emmanuel Sanders @ Titans: I don’t want Sanders no matter who starts at quarterback. He has had a couple blow up weeks, but for the most part he isn’t going to do anything. The matchup is nice, but I wouldn’t start him.

What you can expect: Three catches for 40 yards

Digging deep

Dontrelle Inman @ Panthers: You should know by now I am an Inman fan. 

What you can expect: Four catches for 75 yards, one touchdown

Tedd Ginn Jr. vs. Chargers: He should get the nicer cornerback matchup and all it takes is one big play. He isn’t much different than Tyreek Hill, but he is old so he gets much less fan fare.

What you can expect: Four catches for 95 yards

Taylor Gabriel @ Rams: No Sanu and Julio is hobbled. Julio is a game time decision right now, and regardless of Julio’s status I would try to find a way to get Gabriel into my lineup.

What you can expect: Five catches for 75 yards, one touchdown, 15 yards rushing

Tight End

Start

Ladarius Green @ Bills: I didn’t hop on the “Green is great” train like a lot of people did. The deal with Green is his floor is no different than the rest of the tight ends. The difference is he has the 16 plus point ceiling that not many of the others have.

What you can expect: Five catches for 80 yards

Jason Witten @ Giants: Witten is all narrative street this week, which is something I don’t usually like, but at tight end you take anything you can get. He has had a nice career against the Giants and he is coming off his first game without a catch in about eight years. I think he gets featured, for a tight end, this week.

What you can expect: Five catches for 60 yards, one touchdown

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

6 comments on “Start or Sit Week 14

  1. Nice article but Why does Phillip Rivers have an arbitrary endpoint alert?

    • It’s the 285 yards combined with since week 6.

      If you bump it to a round 300 its four of seven rather than six of 7. Also if you bring it back to since week 5 and 300 yards its only 4 of 8.

      It is just picking and choosing endpoints. Alert probably not needed but I threw it in there because of how much it can change if you go round number and add another week to the sample size.

  2. Need 1 RB and 1 WR and a flex out of Ajayi, Jonathan Stewart, B Cooks, Crowder, and Tyrell Williams. I’m leaning towards Stewart, Crowder, and Williams because of their matchups… and starting Cooks if Julio doesn’t play…but man… it’s tough to sit my RB1 in Ajayi and start Crowder (although he has been pretty automatic in the fantasy world) over the struggling Cooks. Thoughts? Thanks!

    • I would start Crowder and Williams. I think I would go Ajayi over Stewart. Safer floor and higher ceiling with Ajayi. Even in a bad matchup I think he can get you at worst like 50-60 total yards.

      Cooks at least has a late afternoon game so you will have the option. And depending on how your team looks at 4 I might just start Cooks over Julio if Julio is active. I am really concerned about that toe.

      • Wow. Good call. Julio is very questionable as of this morning. Would picking up Taylor Gabriel be advised at this point and dropping K Dixon or is this only likely to be a single week injury?

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