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Week 13 NFL DraftKings picks

How is everyone doing this week?  It was my second good week in a row last week, and I hope you took advantage.  Some of the guys I recommended were flops (Russell Wilson, Allen Robinson), but I more than made up for it with some gems like Brandon Marshall, Carlos Hyde and especially Travis Kelce.  Kelce was way underpriced at $4,000 and he was a staple of my lineups last week, both as a FLEX play and a TE and that paid off big time.  I recommend Kelce again this week because his $4,700 price tag is still way too low in my humble opinion.  Let’s see who else I like this week shall we?

For you FanDuel players, don’t forget to check out my buddy Eric’s Plays and Stay Aways – which come out on Fridays!

If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.

Quarterbacks

Luxury Items

Drew Brees vs. Lions ($7,600) – Brees is always an excellent play at home where he has 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns in every game but one this year – and that was against the stingy Seahawks defense.  This week, he faces a much more generous defense in Detroit who rank a league worst #32 in Football Outsiders defensive efficiency versus the pass.  Brees is an excellent play in both cash games and GPPs if you have the budget.

Bang for Your Buck

Aaron Rodgers vs. Texans ($6,700) – The Texans have a stout defense, but DraftKings is overcompensating here as Rodgers is way too cheap, especially at home.  The erstwhile MVP has 6 straight games of multiple touchdowns, which, not coincidentally has led to 6 straight games of 25+ DraftKings points.  He has also thrown for 295+ yards in his last 4.  The Texans may put up a fight, but I think Rodgers still has an excellent game.

Discount Bin

Eli Manning vs. Steelers ($5,900) – I expect this to be a high scoring affair and thus expect that Eli will have plenty of opportunity to put up big numbers.  The Steelers allow the 10th most pass yards per game and are 21st in yards per attempt allowed as well.  Eli has multiple touchdowns in his last 4 games, and I like him to make it 5 straight this week.

Running Back

Luxury Items

David Johnson vs. Redskins ($9,500) – Johnson has started to get ridiculously expensive, but if you can’t find value elsewhere, this is as safe a play as you can get on DraftKings.  Johnson has 100+ total yards in every game this year and 25+ DraftKings points in 6 of 7 contests.  He is active in the passing game with 11 targets in each of his last 2 games and 9+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games.  As if that were not enough, Washington ranks dead last in DVOA versus the run and is 31st in yards per carry allowed.  Johnson should have a banner day.  Don’t let the big price tag scare you away.

Melvin Gordon vs. Bucs ($7,200) – Speaking of safe plays, Gordon has been a model of consistency this year with 85+ total yards in 7 straight games.  This week he goes up against the Bucs who are 25th in yards per carry allowed and 20th in rush defense DVOA.  You know Gordon will get a bunch of totes and the Bucs are ill-equipped to stop him.  Fire up Gordon this week.

Bang for your Buck

Doug Martin vs. Chargers ($5,700) – I like Gordon’s counterpart this week as well as Doug Martin looks to finally be healthy.  He has 25+ touches and 90+ total yards in his last two games and seems to be getting back to last year’s excellent form.  The Chargers are decent against the run, but struggle in the red zone as they allow the 2nd most rushing TDs in the NFL.  I like Martin to get into the end zone and to get over 100 yards.

Rob Kelley vs. Cardinals ($4,700) – Kelley has been a work horse for the Redskins recently, rushing 20+ times 3 of his last 4 games.  The only exception is last week when: a) he was on a short week; and b) his team was behind and needed to throw the ball.  I think this will be a much closer game and Kelley should have plenty of opportunity for carries.  Look for another 20+ touches which should equal excellent production for this price.

Discount Bin

Dion Lewis vs. Rams ($3,800) – Despite getting more work and looking better each week, Lewis’ price tag is falling.  He should get even more looks this week with Gronkowski out – I expect the Patriots to use their Pony Formation with both Lewis and James White out of the backfield to create mismatches.  Lewis had 7 targets last week and I think that will rise to double digits this week.  In DraftKings’ full point PPR scoring, that is tremendous value at this low price.

Rex Burkhead vs. Eagles ($3,500) – AJ Green is out.  Gio Bernard is out.  Andy Dalton needs some good outlet receivers and Burkhead can fit the bill.  He started to get into the mix last week with 7 touches and 48 total yards.  Look for even greater production this week as the Eagles rank a poor 24th in DVOA against running backs catching passes out of the backfield.  Burkhead might be a surprising source of points this week.

Wide Receiver

Luxury Items

Antonio Brown vs. Giants ($9,100) – Brown has double-digit targets in every home game this season, and I see no reason for that to change now.  In his last two home tilts, Brown has gone over 100 yards as well.  He looked great last week with 3 touchdown catches despite not getting too many looks.  I think he will see the ball much more this week and should have a monster game in what should be a shootout.

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Steelers ($8,500) – The Steelers struggle against #1 receivers ranking 30th in DVOA versus the opponent’s top pass catcher.  OBJ is definitely the Giants’ best pass catcher and has 9+ targets in 9 of his last 10 games.  He is also finding the end zone with regularity as he has scored in 3 of his last 4 games and has 8 touchdowns pver his last 7.  This should be another great outing against Pittsburgh.

Amari Cooper vs. Bills ($7,300) – A good way to find success in GPPs is to zig while everyone else zags.  Cooper has been disappointing in his last 3 games, but let’s not forget that he faced tough defenses in Carolina, Houston and Denver.  The Bills are not as much of a challenge this week as they are 24th in DVOA versus #1 receivers and 25th in yards per attempt allowed.  I like Cooper for a very nice game at very low ownership.

Bang for your Buck

Brandin Cooks vs. Lions ($6,400) – This play is another one I like to differentiate myself from the pack.  While it is true that Cooks scored you a ZERO points on ZERO targets last week, prior to that, he has been averaging 94.2 yards per game and 1 TD per home contest.  Detroit ranks #32 in DVOA versus the pass, and you can be sure that Brees will look for Cooks early and often this week.  This should be a nice game.

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Packers ($6,000) – It has certainly been a disappointing season for Hopkins, and this lowball price reflects that disappointment.  That having been said, Hopkins still has double targets in 2 of his last 3 games.  The Packers are dead last in DVOA versus #1 receivers, and if Brock Osweiler could throw the ball a bit, Hopkins might have a really nice week.

Jarvis Landry vs. Ravens ($5,400) – Ever since Jay Ajayi started to emerge, Landry has been something of an afterthought in the Dolphins’ offense.  This week against the Ravens, I think he will be more heavily involved.  The Ravens are the best team in the NFL in DVOA versus the run and are only 23rd against slot receivers.  The Dolphins will likely eschew their power running game for short throws to Landry.  He might catch 10 balls this week which could turn into a huge PPR day on DraftKings.

Discount Bin

Marvin Jones vs. Saints ($4,400) – Jones finally came out of the shadows again last week with 11 targets on the day.  If he stays this involved, he should do well against the Saints who are 28th in yards per attempt allowed in the passing game.  I think this will be a high scoring game and Jones should be able to produce very nicely.

Marquess Wilson vs. 49ers ($4,000) – This should be a popular play this week after Wilson caught 8 balls for 125 yards and a touchdown last week.  But, the Bears are running out of players on offense and Wilson should see a healthy amount of targets again this week.  That is especially the case with Matt Barkley throwing the ball as he seems to have good chemistry with Wilson.  

Malcolm Mitchell vs. Rams ($3,600) – Will Mitchell make it 3 good games in a row?  We can’t be sure, but I can tell you that he is underpriced at $3,600.  With Gronkowski out, the Pats will be relying on 3 receivers much more (as well as the pony formation mentioned before), so Mitchell should see snaps on about half of the Patriots’ offensive plays.  After earning Brady’s trust the last two weeks, I will pay to see if he is a permanent offensive fixture at this low price.

Tight End

Luxury Item

Travis Kelce vs. Falcons ($4,700) – Gronk is out for the year.  Jordan Reed is out for the week.  Delanie Walker is on bye.  There are not many top-tier options left at tight end.  Kelce has 100+ yards in 2 straight games and had a whopping 15 targets last week.  There are no players with his upside at $4,700 and Kelce will once again be a staple of both my cash and GPP lineups as both a TE and a FLEX.

Bang for your Buck

Eric Ebron vs. Saints ($3,900) – Ebron’s ownership percentage will likely be under 5% after being shut out last week, but I am not afraid.  He has 70+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games and should find Matthew Stafford’s eye again in this anticipated high scoring affair with New Orleans.  I am loving him at $3,900.

Discount Bin

Vernon Davis vs. Cardinals ($3,300) – The Redskins love throwing the ball to the tight end and Jordan Reed is out, so Davis is a nice option.  Even with Reed in the lineup, Davis has 50+ receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games.  He really should be priced higher as he is a pretty big part of the Redskins offense.  I like him to exceed value even against the tough Cardinals D.

Defense/Special Teams

Bang for your buck

Broncos vs. Jaguars ($3,900) – The Broncos defense is good.  Blake Bortles is bad.  #Analysis.

Panthers vs. Seahawks ($2,600) – If you don’t want to pay up on defense, the Panthers are a nice selection.  They have double-digit fantasy points in 3 of their last 5 games, and the Seahawks allow plenty of sacks.  I like them for a solid day.

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.
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