Hey guys! I hope it has been a glorious Thanksgiving week for all. The key to having a great week, especially in GPPs, is to hit on your low owned, low-priced plays so that you can fit more studs in your lineups. Last week in this space, I recommended Malcolm Mitchell, who was under 1% owned in all DraftKings contests that I played but scored nearly 20 points at minimum salary. If you played Mitchell, you were likely able to get both LeVeon Bell and David Johnson in your lineups and zoomed to the top of the leaderboards. Last week was my most profitable of the season and I hope you benefited as well. Let’s see what we come up with for this week.
For you FanDuel players, don’t forget to check out my buddy Eric’s Plays and Stay Aways – which come out on Fridays!
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Russell Wilson vs. Bucs ($6,700) – Many are touting Wilson this week and for good reason. He finally looks like himself, posting 25+ DraftKings points in his last 3 games, including multiple touchdown performances in all 3. He also gets a very nice match-up this week against Tampa Bay who are 2nd worst in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed. I like Wilson as a staple for cash game lineups and as a GPP play as well.
Bang for Your Buck
Blake Bortles vs. Bills ($5,600) – Bortles is a much better fantasy QB than he is a real life one, but we don’t care about real life in this space. The Jaguars’ QB has multiple TDs in his last 4 games and has thrown a touchdown in every game this year. The Bills allow the 7th worst yards per attempt in the NFL, and Bortles should have plenty of garbage time to pad his numbers. I like him for another nice fantasy game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Patriots ($5,100) – The Patriots may be 8-2, but they are really struggling against the pass, ranking 27th in passing defensive efficiency per Football Outsiders. Fitzpatrick has been dreadful this season, but last year against the Patriots he threw for 295+ yards and 2+ TDs in both games. This will likely be a high scoring affair and I like Fitzpatrick to put up some numbers.
David Johnson vs. Falcons ($8,900) – Johnson will likely be the highest owned player on the board this week, and with good reason. The Cardinals’ superstar has 25+ DraftKings points in 5 of his last 6 games including three 35+ point efforts. Johnson is not merely an effective runner as he has 7+ targets and 5+ catches in his last 4 games. If that were not enough, he has also has over 100 total yards in every game this year. The Falcons are not a scary defense either, ranking 28th in rushing defensive efficiency. I don’t care what his ownership will be, Johnson will be a staple in my lineups.
Jay Ajayi vs. 49ers ($7,600) – Another player I expect to be highly owned but effective is Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi. The 49ers are comfortably the worst rushing defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in both advanced and standard metrics. San Francisco ranks 32nd in rush defense DVOA as well as rushing yards allowed by a whopping 200 yards – and they are 500 yards clear of the 3rd worst rush defense. The 49ers also allow the most rush yards per attempt by a wide margin. Ajayi has had 75+ yards in each game that he has started and has 100+ yards in 3 of his last 5 games. Fire him up in both cash and GPPs.
Bang for your Buck
Todd Gurley vs. Saints ($5,700) – While the Saints defense has been much improved against the run, they still are 3rd worst in allowing rushing touchdowns on the year. Gurley has finally started to find his groove, with 20+ carries and 60+ yards in consecutive games for the first time this year. I think we will see Gurley early and often versus New Orleans and he is in line for a nice game.
Rashad Jennings vs. Browns ($5,600) – While we have established that the 49ers are the worst rush defense in the NFL, the Browns are 2nd worst in that category as they rank 30th in DVOA and 31st in rush yards allowed. This is a great match-up for Jennings who has started to come alive in the 2nd half. Jennings has 15+ carries 85+ yards and 6+ targets in each of his last two games. If he continues to see this workload, he should have a great deal of production again this week.
Carlos Hyde vs. Dolphins ($4,800) – I love this price for a talented bell-cow back like Hyde is. The Dolphins’ rush defense is not great, ranking 23rd in rushing yards per attempt allowed. Last week, Hyde had 100+ total yards and 20+ touches for the first time since returning from injury. I think that Hyde will get a bunch of touches again this week and should make the most of them and at a nice salary to boot.
Dion Lewis vs. Jets ($4,000) – WARNING! GPP PLAY ALERT! The Jets rank 2nd in DVOA versus the run, so I expect LeGarrette Blount to take a back seat this week to James White and especially Dion Lewis. In his first game back from injury, Lewis looked even better than his numbers (49 yards on 8 touches) would indicate. I think Lewis gets 15+ touches and that might turn into 100+ yards and a score this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Browns ($8,800) – OBJ was a disappointment last week, but I am going back to the well. Cleveland ranks a paltry 31st in defensive efficiency against #1 receivers. I can’t see OBJ getting only 7 targets again this week. And with 10+ targets, like I expect, he should do plenty of damage.
Allen Robinson vs. Bills ($7,200) – After a disappointing start to the year, Robinson is starting to come around. He has touchdowns in his last 3 games and double-digit targets in 3 of his last 4 outings. The Bills are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency versus #1 receivers. I like Robinson for a big day.
Demaryius Thomas vs. Chiefs ($6,900) – After not being targeted all that much for the first chunk of the season, Thomas has double-digit targets in his last 5 games. He is still priced pretty low for such a talented receiver seeing so many looks. The Chiefs have a decent pass defense, but rank only 19th versus top receivers. Thomas should take advantage.
Bang for your Buck
Doug Baldwin vs. Bucs ($6,400) – Baldwin has started another monster second half as he has 4 touchdowns in his last 2 games, going over 22 DraftKings points in both. Tampa Bay is only 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed, so Baldwin should get loose deep a couple of times. I like his monster second half form to continue.
Brandon Marshall vs. Patriots ($6,100) – Marshall has been a train wreck this season, but I think he turns it around this week against the Patriots. As mentioned above, the Pats only rank 27th in defensive efficiency versus the pass and Marshall remains the Jets’ top receiver. He had 12 catches for 182 yards and 2 TDs in his 2 games against New England last year. I expect more of the same this week.
Terrell Pryor Sr. vs. Giants ($5,600) – The Browns should see plenty of garbage time in this one and I expect their top receiver to be the beneficiary. Pryor has 7+ targets in his last 4 games and should match that again this week. 80+ yards and touchdown is a reasonable ask.
Davante Parker vs. 49ers ($4,700) – San Francisco ranks dead last in DVOA defending long passes, and Parker is the Dolphins’ burner. He has also gotten very involved in the offense with 79+ yards and 8+ targets in his last two games. Parker will be in at least a third of my GPP lineups.
Tyler Boyd vs. Ravens ($4,000) – The Ravens have a solid defense, but the Bengals are running out of guys to throw the ball to with AJ Green and Giovanni Bernard both out. Boyd, the talented rookie should absorb most of the targets as he had 8 looks with Green out last week. In DraftKings’ PPR format, Boyd has tremendous value as an offense’s top receiver at this price.
Tajae Sharpe vs. Bears ($3,700) – After a nice start to the season, Sharpe fell off the face of the earth for a little while, only to reemerge in the last 2 weeks. Sharpe has exactly 68 yards and a touchdown in each of his last 2 games and has been a steady member of the Titans’ offense. He should do some more damage at this price.
Greg Olsen vs. Raiders ($5,800) – Gronk is likely missing out this week and Olsen emerges as the top tight end in the slate. His 745 receiving yards lead tight ends who are playing, and he faces off against the Raiders who are mediocre against the position. If you have the budget left over, Olsen is your play at tight end.
Bang for your Buck
Travis Kelce vs. Broncos ($4,000) – I understand that DraftKings is trying to account for match-up, but this price is criminally low for Kelce – even if he was playing against the ’85 Bears. The Chiefs’ star has 6+ targets in his last 4 games and has gone over 100 yards twice in those 4 games. He has a high ceiling for a tight end and will be in plenty of my lineups at this price. In fact, at this dollar amount, Kelce is a fine FLEX play, with him costing less than the #3 receiver on some teams.
Vance McDonald vs. Dolphins ($3,000) – McDonald has been a staple of Colin Kaepernick’s offense with exactly 6 targets in each of his last 4 games. The 49ers’ TE has made the most of his opportunities with touchdowns in 2 of his last 3 outings and 45+ receiving yards in his last 3 games. For this price, you are not going to do better.
Bang for your buck
Giants vs. Browns ($3,600) – As the Steelers proved last week, any defense playing the Browns is a good play. You can bet that I will have some Giants exposure.
Titans vs. Bears ($2,800) – Noodle armed Matt Barkley is playing QB for the Bears who should be good for at least a turnover or two… or five.
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