Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I am a proud Canadian, but I lived in the US for 8+ years, and one thing that I miss the most is Thanksgiving. Since my family was up in the north, we used to get together with our close friends for some football and food every Thanksgiving, and it was one of my favorite days of the year.
We have not abandoned Thanksgiving since moving back to Canada, though since we have to work, our celebration will be on Saturday and not Thursday. But fear not boys and girls, I am still here to get you ready to make your DraftKings lineups. It is a 3 game slate so it certainly won’t be as detailed as usual, but let’s see who I like on this Turkey Day.
For you FanDuel players, don’t forget to check out my buddy Eric’s Thanksgiving Plays and Stay Aways!
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Bang for Your Buck
Kirk Cousins vs. Cowboys ($5,900) – I am quite surprised at Cousins’ price this week – as we saw against Green Bay last week, Kirk is one of the best fantasy QBs in the league right now. He has multiple passing touchdowns in his last three games and has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 of his last 4. While Dallas is a good team, this match-up does not really scare me as the Cowboys are a weak 28th in pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders. And let’s not forget that when they met earlier this season, Cousins threw for 364 yards and ran for 20 more against these Cowboys. I like that!
Scott Tolzien vs. Steelers ($5,000) – No, I have not lost my mind. In a 3 game slate there are only 6 QBs playing, and in a GPP we want to differentiate ourselves. I am fairly certain that Tolzien’s ownership will hover around 10%, but I think he will easily make value. The Steelers allow the 9th most passing yards per game, and Tolzien will probably see a lot of garbage time in this one. I think he is a sneaky play in GPPs.
LeVeon Bell vs. Colts ($9,000) – If there is one position to spend up on in this short slate, it is running back. Bell has a dream match-up against the Colts who are ranked 31st in run defense DVOA. Apart from his impressive running, let’s not forget about DraftKings’ full point PPR format. Bell has received 9+ targets in the passing game in his last four outings and has only been below 100 total yards one time this season. He is well worth his price.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Redskins ($8,500) – The Redskins allow the 10th most rushing yards per game and are 2nd worst when it comes to yards per carry. I don’t really need to sing the praises of Elliott, but you should know that he has not rushed for less than 90 yards since week 2 of the season (incidentally that was against these Redskins). I think Elliott has a banner performance on Thanksgiving and could go for 150+ yards and a TD or 2.
Bang for your Buck
Frank Gore vs. Steelers ($5,200) – Gore is as consistent as they come as he has scored double-digit points on DraftKings in every game but one this year. The Colts love feeding this old goat the ball as Gore has 20+ touches in 4 of 5 games. I don’t see his workload slowing down with Tolzien at the helm, as I expect the Colts to have a run heavy game plan at the beginning of the game, meaning Gore could be in line for some nice production.
Rob Kelley vs. Cowboys ($4,300) – I don’t love this match-up for Kelley, but he is inexplicably cheap, so he is certainly worth rostering as an RB2 or FLEX. Kelly has had 20+ carries in his last 3 games, has had 85+ yards in each of those games, and has rushed for 4 TDs over his last 3 games. In short, Fat Rob is smoking hot and his price has not yet caught up. 75+ yards and a touchdown would not surprise me, and that would be tremendous value at this price.
Dez Bryant vs. Redskins ($7,700) – I expect most ownership will be on Antonio Brown, and I actually like the pivot to Bryant. Dez has been a real factor since coming back from injury with 8+ targets, 80+ yards and a touchdown in 3 of his 4 games. The Redskins rank 21st defending #1 receivers. I like Bryant for a good game.
Bang for your Buck
Golden Tate vs. Vikings ($5,600) – Tate was unimpressive last week, and coupled with this match-up against the Vikings, I am expecting low ownership. But prior to last week, Tate had been amazing with 9+ targets and 75+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. I expect the Lions to have difficulty running the ball and to move the ball with short throws. Tate should get plenty of targets and should hit value at this price.
Adam Thielen vs. Lions ($4,000) – Thielen’s role in the Vikings offense has increased in recent weeks as he has touchdowns in his last 2 games and double-digit DraftKings points in his last 3. It looks like Stephon Diggs will be missing this game, which could thrust Thielen into the #1 receiver role. If that is the case, I am paying up for my running backs and plugging Thielen into my lineups at a mere $4,000 price tag.
Pierre Garcon vs. Cowboys ($3,900) – Garcon continues the theme of underpriced Redskins as the former NFL receptions leader has had a bit of a resurgence recently. Garcon has 67+ yards in his last 3 games as well as 7+ targets and exactly 6 catches in all 3 of those games. On Sunday he was over 100 yards with a score. I am loving Garcon at $3,900
Jordan Reed vs. Cowboys ($6,200) – This has everything to do with player and nothing to do with match-up. Quite simply, if you have the budget for a tight end, there is no choice but Reed. He is far and away the most talented guy on the board and the numbers bear that out. Reed has had 50+ receiving yards in every game but one this year, including against the Cowboys where he caught 5 balls for 70 yards. I expect even better this week.
Bang for your Buck
Kyle Rudolph vs. Lions ($3,700) – This pick is more about match-up than player as the Lions struggle mightily against tight ends ranking 27th in DVOA versus the position. Rudolph has also been more of a red zone threat recently with touchdowns in 2 of his last 3 games. With Diggs potentially out, I like a rock solid game for Rudolph.
Bang for your buck
Steelers vs. Colts ($2,800) – I know I recommended Tolzien (and Frank Gore), but there is a very good chance that the Colts’ new QB throws the ball to the wrong team once or twice. The Steelers are not prohibitively expensive, but are likely the safest play on the board.
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