31. Yasmany Tomas – Diamondbacks
- Kevin: At the end of 2015, he was swinging and missing at everything. He corrected that in 2016, and a steady approach resulted in a decent BA with 30 HR. I’m only banking on 25 homers for my projections, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to mature and proves me wrong.
- Josh: On a positive note, Tomas really improved his GB/FB rate this past season. On the negative side, that total was still 1.52. Combine that with a 25% HR/FB rate and Tomas projects more as a 23 HR bat with counting numbers that are serviceable, yet unspectacular.
32. Matt Kemp – Braves
- Ron: The health-concern label can probably be removed from Kemp at this point. He just finished his third straight 150+ game season. The stolen base is no longer a part of his game, but the chance for decent run and RBI production plus 25-30 home runs should continue to be expected.
- Jim: As long as your expectations for Kemp are his numbers from 2014/2015 he’s a decent player to own (for now). I’ll admit to being lower on Kemp than most – I’ve been burned by him so I’m jaded. If his current owner is anything like me you’ll get Kemp for cheap, and if you team is built to win now he’s a worthy target.
33. Marcell Ozuna – Marlins
- Mike: Nice bounce back season for Ozuna. Still wish he played in a better park, but the power is good enough that it will play anywhere. I think he has room for power growth, and the Marlins lineup should only get better over the next few years with all the young talent. He’s a good mid-level talent to target in dynasty formats.
- Paul: Ozuna hit 23 HR as a 25-year-old last year, but it’s the same amount he hit two years early at just 23. I think there’s more power, but I can’t find any real reason to expect it to come soon, or ever.
34. Michael Brantley – Indians
- Jim: He is one year removed from consecutive 15/15/.300 season’s. The injuries last year were unfortunate, and maybe he pushed a little to hard with his shoulder. Another full offseason should have Brantley back to full strength.
- Paul: In his (only) three big seasons combined, Brantley hit 45 HR, stole 55 bases and hit .307. That’s nice and all, but it’s not something I’m going to stretch out and reach for in the hopes he comes back strong from his injuries.
35. Joc Pederson – Dodgers
- Kevin: Low contact caps his BA, but he takes walk and shows legitimate power. The Dodgers have thinned out their outfield a little compared to years past so he should get a chance at 500+ AB. A strong September means it’s worth hoping he’s turning the corner and breaking out.
- Mike: He might never be as good as we hoped. He’s still a good power bat with elite OBP skills if you play in a format where that matters. For now, he’s a platoon bat, but I ranked him a little higher because of youth and initial prospect status. He’s on the strong side of the platoon so he should provide some value even at his current rate of play.
36. Lorenzo Cain – Royals
- Josh: Really good AVG source as .290 seems like a lock. The power and speed isn’t elite, but a 15/15 season seems reasonable. And, as a member of the Royals he comes with built in solid RBI and/or run totals. Free agency is looming in 2017, and with it could come that primo lineup spot.
- Ron: It feels like the best of Lorenzo Cain was all used up in his brilliant 2015 season. Never expect that from Cain again. This is a number 3 or 4 outfielder in a 10 to 12-team league.
37. Adam Eaton – White Sox
- Josh: I’m entirely too low on my ranking of Eaton given his current skill set. Solid AVG with double-digit power and speed in addition to having a real shot at scoring 100 runs. My concerns with these types of players is the impact just one statistical decline can have on their overall rating.
- Mike: I saw a big breakout coming for Eaton in ‘16 and it didn’t come. He was amazing in the 2nd half again, though. It seems like he has the floor of a top 30 outfielder and I still think there’s room for a breakout. A bounce back from the White Sox lineup as a whole would help make that happen given his status as their resident leadoff man.
38. Odubel Herrera – Phillies
- Kevin: Guys like Herrera don’t get the love they deserve. Solid approach results in high BA floor and league average power. Combined with his SB (which could increase if he improves his success rate), and a repeat of 2015 is fully believable.
- Ron: This is Lorenzo Cain-lite. Nothing more, nothing less.
39. Jose Bautista
- Paul: There is a ton of risk here, with his age and injury history. However, he’s in fantastic shape and has hit 97 home runs over the past three seasons (3rd ranked OF), 125 in 4 seasons (3rd), and 152 in 5 seasons (tied 3rd). The encouraging thing to me is his strong plate discipline with a 16.8% walk rate last year and the highest walk rate of any outfielder over the past 5. I’d buy low here.
- Jim: Leaving Toronto, that park, that surrounding cast – that’s strike one for me. Strike two would be the time missed in three of the past five seasons. Strike three is coming. Joey Bats is 36, but his body is much older than that. Even if he stays healthy I don’t see his bat aging gracefully. I see a cliff season coming.
40. Michael Conforto – Mets
- Ron: Moving forward, Conforto should find his way to resemble more of his 2015 form than his sophomore slump form from his 2016 season. This is a quality outfielder with upside.
- Mike: The cons: he got a little pull happy and he has one of the worst managers in the league controlling his playing time. The pros: He’s crazy young and has exhibited amazing contact skills along with some power in the past. He’s also a plus corner defender which should help force him into the lineup even with Terry Collins calling the shots.
41. Dexter Fowler – Free Agent
- Paul: I may have over-ranked Fowler here, but I like his ability to get on base and score runs at the top of the lineup. He should land in a good spot and will threaten the 100 run plateau as long as he stays healthy.
- Josh: His offseason landing spot will ultimately define his value moving forward. A good team at the top of the order gives you a chance at 90+ runs. A bad team and the top of the order gives you 80 runs and make those 10-15 HR much less impressive.
42. Jay Bruce – Mets
- Kevin: He righted the ship and got back to his .250, 30 HR ways, even when hitting in a pitcher’s park. Expect more of the same, along with 90+ RBI, for the next few years.
- Jim: The batting average collapse in the second half was a reminder that 2014 and 2015 are realistic ceiling numbers for Bruce moving forward. I hate the instability, but not enough to leave him off my rankings completely.
43. Kole Calhoun – Angels
- Josh: Could have overrated Calhoun as he doesn’t appear to have any particular skill that sticks out. Career high BB% combined with career low K% in 2016 leads me to believe improved AVG or OBP could lead to 100 runs and or a rise in AVG, thus providing him with something to differentiate himself from the pack.
- Paul: I wanted to write a fair bit about Calhoun, but I nodded off looking deeper at him. There’s really not much here; 20 home runs are nice, but a poor average and little to no speed makes Kole Calhoun a dull boy.
44. Adam Duvall – Reds
- Kevin: Did his best Jay Bruce impression, and it may be fully legit, but because he was a late starter, a lot of people want to see him do it again before they invest. His approach looks stable to me, so grab his power for cheap while you can.
- Mike: This was a weird one given Duvall wasn’t much of a prospect and wasn’t on any sleeper lists I knew about. He showed some power potential in the minors with highs of 33, 27, and 26. Still, 164 strikeouts means he’s a volatile play, and I have a hard time trusting the 17.8% HR/FB% even if it’s close to his career norms.
45. Ender Inciarte – Braves
- Jim: The move to Atlanta didn’t affect Inciarte much. He hit for average, showed some good speed and scored over 80 runs. If not for a slow start we could have seen 20+ steals and 100 runs scored – that’s what I expect moving forward. That and an average north of .290.
- Ron: Inciarte does not get enough credit, but he should be in the conversation with Jacoby Ellsbury and Adam Eaton. My guess is you can have Inciarte at a discount over those two names, and get similar production.
46. Randal Grichuk – Cardinals
- Kevin: There are warts in his profile, and he needs to improve his plate discipline. He’ll never be a reliable help in average, but two second halves show the power is solid, and I could see a .250, 35 HR season in the near future.
- Jim: There are a lot of guys that can hit 24 home runs while hitting below average. I need to see either more power or a better average before a move inside the top-50 is considered. He’s a poor man’s Jay Bruce.
47. Hunter Pence – Giants
- Josh: Two consecutive injury riddled seasons and he will be 34 to begin the 2017 season. It could be rather easy to dismiss him from Dynasty considerations. Then again, when healthy, few are more reliable to hit 20 HR with double-digit speed, good run totals and a plus average.
- Ron: Pence is not aging well at all. It might be time to jump off this grenade now. Tough park to hit in, injury concerns are piling up, and not aging gracefully. Bad trifecta.
48. Aaron Judge – Yankees
- Paul: Judge is just 24 years old and has monster power potential. The strikeouts are always going to be a concern for the big 6’7″, 255lb giant, but he should settle in the 25-27% range. That will play when he’s cranking 30 home runs a year.
- Mike: Gary Sanchez notwithstanding, Yankee prospects are generally overrated. Take it from a Yankee fan: Melky Cabrera was projected to be what Cutch became, and Phil Hughes was touted to be what Verlander ended up being. Don’t be fooled by Judge’s hype or his impressive stature; he is a K machine (44% K rate in his first 27 games) that will be exploited by MLB pitching.
48. Yasiel Puig – Dodgers
- Josh: Few have a wider range of outcomes than Puig. I no longer see a top-20 overall player at any point, but there’s no shame in .300 with 20 HR to go with 90 runs and RBIs. Sadly though, the scenario of bench bat could be just as likely.
- Kevin: Puig is such a caustic personality that I worry he may not get the playing time. He has 2 consecutive seasons with hamstring issues, only one season above 400 AB, his power is only barely above average, and he hits a lot of grounders. Honestly, 2014 seems like a best-case scenario moving forward.
50. Hunter Renfroe – Padres
- Mike: Everything Aaron Judge is supposed to be and more. He’s a masher with plus power. Petco isn’t as much of a pitcher’s park as it used to be. His successful “cup of coffee” might drive the cost up a bit, but I think he’s worth it.
- Ron: I’m not sure what to make of Renfroe just yet. For re-builders he’s a name to consider. For those going for it all right now, I would probably stay away. While he took the league by storm in his brief call-up, I am anticipating that the league will catch onto him quickly.
51. Clint Frazier – Yankees
- Jim: A worst case scenario for him would be numbers no better than the 2014/2015 version of Brett Gardner. That’s not a bad floor, but I expect a much better batting average.
- Paul: I suspect Frazier will be a hot topic next off-season. For now, I’m holding off ranking him as much as I think he will be a productive offensive force. If I thought he’d see more than a cup of coffee in 2017, I’d have him in here.
52. Jurickson Profar – Rangers
- Josh: Profar won’t be a superstar, but he could provide assistance in 5 categories. A place to play will be the ultimate hurdle, but it is the hurdle itself which will build Profar’s fantasy appeal. Ben Zobrist has been a desirable fantasy option for years, Profar could serve the same purpose in the exact same manner.
- Mike: I would rank Profar higher if I knew exactly where he was going to play. He’s not long removed from being the #1 prospect in baseball and showed some promise this year. Keep an eye on him and inflate this ranking a bit if we find out he’s guaranteed 600 ABs come spring training.
53. Brandon Drury – Diamondbacks
- Jim: He can hit for a high average (against lefties and righties) and is capable of hitting 20 home runs. What I like most is the fact he will play the super utility role for the next year or so. That means another 2-3 years of 2B/3B/OF eligibility.
- Kevin: Arizona injuries gave him a chance to shine, and he did. High GB% caps his power, but a full season means .280 with 20 HR as his floor, and that’s not bad if you can get him cheap.
53. Austin Meadows – Pirates
- Paul: Meadows is the complete package; power, speed, average. The question is: when will he be ready, and will there be an opening when he is? I don’t think they can keep him down for more than half of a year, and I think by 2018 we’re talking about a top-25 OF; I’m just going in a little early.
- Ron: Meadows gives me the Josh Reddick vibe. Opportunity needs to be created in Pittsburgh, but there’s a high-quality player on the horizon.
55. Jorge Soler – Cubs
- Josh: Nothing he’s shown thus far suggest there’s anything of value to be had. A move this offseason could at least provide Soler with a new start and an everyday role. I’m skeptical, but it’s hard to close the book on someone with less than 800 PA.
- Paul: I will admit that this is a complete hedge ranking. Is he a top-50 outfielder? Well, he hasn’t produced to that level. Does he have the skill set to be even higher? Absolutely. I really like the power, and he’s just 24, so I suspect we’ll see a couple of seasons of top 30 production – with some lesser performances thrown in.
56. Carlos Gomez – Free Agent
- Jim: I put him near the bottom of my top-60 based on his track record – that and the flashes we saw last year that he still could be viable. If he flops again in 2017 I’m done.
- Mike: I know, you’ve been torched by him two years in a row and you’re done with him. He should come pretty cheap now, though. Texas seemed to rejuvenate him as he hit 8 bombs in just 33 games as a Ranger. He also managed 18 SBs in his 118 total games, which makes me think there’s value to be mined here.
57. Jason Heyward – Cubs
- Kevin: I’m willing to give him a partial mulligan (pushing in first year of big contract? second worst BABIP means bad luck?). If you throw out 2012 then you realize you’re getting a .265 hitter with 10-15 HR and a max of 20 SB. The Cubs have a lot of outfielders so if he starts cold in 2017, count on him losing playing time.
- Ron: Worm burner Heyward! Actually, Heyward improved a bit in the GB/FB area. He just puts nothing on the ball in terms of power. At this point, Heyward is more of a name value player than an actual value guy.
58. Manuel Margot – Padres
- Paul: Good contact skills, plenty of speed, and now opportunity makes Margot a very good buy heading into 2017. He can steal upwards of 25 bases with a good batting average to match right away. I think he could even surprise down the road with 15 HR potential. I’m a big fan.
- Josh: I love Margot’s long-term outlook. .300 AVG, 40 SB, 10 HR, with 100+ runs is in the future. The obvious question is how quickly will that be? Less than ideal walk skills suggest to me we could be a few years away.
59. Keon Broxton – Brewers
- Mike: This is another confusing one for me, but I’m choosing to be excited about the tantalizing skill set that he flashed. He’s young (26) and just hit 9 HRs with 23 SBs in just 75 games. I’m less sold on the power being real, but it’s hard to fake that kind of speed. Target him for the wheels and everything else you get is gravy.
- Jim: He has some power and speed and can hit the ball hard, but he also has a strikeout rate over 30 percent (major and minor) and makes horrible contact. There are younger upside or older safer players to focus on.
60. Brett Gardner – Yankees
- Kevin: For years I wanted more out of him, but after 2014-15 and a new HR/FB level (11%), I accepted his profile as it was, 15+ HR, 20 SB. Then in 2016 his HR/FB went back to his previous career norm (6%). You could do worse if you’re looking for a veteran to put in your #3 or #4 OF slot, but he’s a gamble without that extra pop.
- Ron: Gardner keeps churning out usable fantasy production. For a Yankee, he always seems to fly a little under the radar.
As you can see there was a lot of discrepancies once you got past the top-40. Some value veterans, others look for youth. Then you have those special players we each believe in more than the majority. Once you get down to your fourth/fifth outfielder and bench players it’s all a matter of opinion and preference.
Domingo Santana, Max Kepler, Lewis Brinson and Scott Schebler made it on to half our rankings, but all were ranked 48 or higher. Jacoby Ellsbury, Corey Dickerson, Cameron Maybin and Bradley Zimmer each received a higher ranking than the above group, but they only appeared on two lists pushing them further down the ranks.
Finally we have the one-hit wonders; those players that appeared on just one of six rankings (between 40 and 60). They are (ranked in order) Kevin Kiermaier, Tyler Naquin, Michael Saunders, Raimel Tapia, Ryan Rua, Josh Reddick, Curtis Granderson, David Peralta, Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, Mallex Smith, Albert Almora, Melvin Upton, Kevin PIllar, Shin-Soo Choo, Leonys Martin and Tyler O’Neil.
That wraps up our outfield rankings. Next week begins our starting pitcher coverage which will last two weeks and wrap up Sunday with the top 75 starting pitchers.
Back to Page 1: Players 1 through 30