Week 11 NFL DraftKings picks

Alright boys and girls, I am ready for another fantastic week of daily fantasy football this week.  This is as tough a week as you will see on DraftKings as value plays are few and far between.  That having been said, I have still found some guys that I like and will be happy to share them with you.  Come along for the ride!

For you FanDuel players, don’t forget to check out my buddy Eric’s Plays and Stay Aways – which come out on Fridays!

If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.

Quarterbacks

Luxury Items

Aaron Rodgers vs. Redskins ($7,600) – While the Packers have been struggling to win games, Rodgers’ production has not really faltered.  He has had multiple touchdown throws in his last 4 games and has been over 295 yards and 40 pass attempts in 3 of those 4 games.  Heck, Rodgers has even run for 40+ yards or a touchdown in his last 3 games.  This week he faces the Redskins who allow the 19th most yards per pass attempt.  It should be another good game for Rodgers.

Bang for Your Buck

Kirk Cousins vs. Packers ($5,800) – You don’t like Rodgers this week?  Can I recommend the QB who he is facing off against?  The Packers have an abysmal pass defense, ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt.  Cousins has thrown for 260+ pass yards in 4 of his last 5 games and multiple touchdowns in 3 of 4 games.  I like him to do some damage this week.

Discount Bin

Colin Kaepernick vs. Patriots ($5,200) – Don’t look now, but Kaepernick has resembled a competent fantasy quarterback over the last few weeks.  He has rushed for 50+ yards in 3 of his 4 starts and has gone over 23 DraftKings points the last two weeks.  The Patriots will likely be up big, meaning a lot of pass attempts for Kaepernick, and he should continue to run the ball effectively as well.  For this price I like Kaepernick for a nice fantasy day.

Running Back

Luxury Items

LeVeon Bell vs. Browns ($8,800) – If you have the budget, Bell is an excellent play this week.  The Browns don’t do anything very well defensively, and that includes stopping the run where they rank 29th in DVOA.  The Browns are not very effective stopping slot receivers either and Bell should see plenty of work in that role as well.  I would not rule out 175+ total yards and 2 TDs for Bell in a game the Steelers have to win.

DeMarco Murray vs. Colts ($8,200) – If there is one team worse than the Browns at stopping the run it is the defensively challenged Colts who rank 32nd in rush defense DVOA and 29th in yards allowed per carry.  After 5 straight weeks of 20+ rushes, Murray has been held under 18 carries the last 2 weeks.  Even if that trend continues, however, I am not too worried as Murray should be good for 125+ yards as long as he gets 15-18 carries.  This is a great spot for him.

Bang for your Buck

Spencer Ware vs. Bucs ($6,000) – The Bucs were supposed to be a good run defense this year, but that has not come to fruition as they rank 19th in yards allowed per carry and have also allowed running backs to gash them in the passing game.  Ware loves his home cooking as he is averaging 21.7 DraftKings points per game at home this year.  I like him for another good one.

Theo Riddick vs. Jaguars ($5,100) – The Jaguars are surprisingly effective against the pass, ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt.  Where they are woefully deficient, though, is against the run as their DVOA sits at 28th.  Riddick is not your traditional between the tackles runner, but he has double digit carries in his last 6 games.  He should get 12-15 carries and have an effective day on the ground while adding his usual 6+ targets.  

Discount Bin

CJ Prosise vs. Eagles ($4,200) – The bad news here is that Thomas Rawls is back and off of the injury report, but I have a hard time believing that Rawls will be a workhorse coming back from a multi-week layoff.  That especially won’t happen because Prosise has been so good recently – he had 24 touches and over 150 total yards last week.  Prosise also has 80+ yards receiving in 2 of the last 3 weeks.  I think he still rushes 10 times and catches 6 balls this week making him a great value play.

James Starks vs. Redskins ($4,200) – Starks dominated the snaps at running back for the Packers last week, and he will only be more involved this week.  While the Packers love passing the ball, the Redskins are 30th in run defense DVOA.  I expect 15 carries from Starks and he could put up a high score for a low price.

Wide Receiver

Luxury Items

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Bears ($8,500) – OBJ is a target machine, having had 8 or more targets in every game this season.  Beckham has been especially dangerous at home this year where he has had 85+ yards in 4 of 5 home games and has caught 5 of his 6 touchdown passes on the season.  He should see double-digit targets again and should put on another show for his home crowd against the Bears.

TY Hilton vs. Titans ($7,700) – I have a feeling that Hilton’s ownership will be depressed since, after not having less than 9 targets in his first 7 weeks, he has had 6 and then 8 targets the last two weeks.  I am not worried, though, as he gets to face the 26th ranked pass defense per DVOA.  Hilton faced Tennessee 3 weeks ago and had 7 catches on 12 targets for 133 yards and a score.  I don’t think duplicating those results is a stretch.

Doug Baldwin vs. Eagles ($5,700) – I try to do as much statistical analysis as I can when I make these picks.  But sometimes, you just have to ride trends.  Last season, Baldwin put together a historic run in the 2nd half of the season when he caught an astounding 12 touchdowns.  Well, the second half of the season kicked off for Baldwin last week and he started it off by catching 3 touchdowns against the Patriots.  Is this the start of another historic run?  I am not missing the boat on this one.

Bang for your Buck

Terrelle Pryor Sr. vs. Steelers ($5,600) – The Steelers are a below average pass defensive team, ranking 21st in pass defense DVOA and 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt.  Pryor has failed to exceed 50 yards in his last 2 games, but he still has 7+ targets in each of his last 3 contests.  I like him for a breakout against the Steelers.

Jamison Crowder vs. Packers ($5,400) – It seems as if the world has not yet caught up to how good Jamison Crowder has been.  He has 100 yards receiving or a receiving touchdown in each of his last 4 games and has been below double-digit DraftKings points only once this season.  As outlined before, the Packers are a terrible pass defense – roll with Crowder this week.

Robert Woods vs. Bengals ($4,900) – Another under the radar receiver is Robert Woods, who has had 6+ targets in his last 6 games.  Woods has had 16+ DraftKings points in 2 of his last 3 contests, including his breakout game against the Seahawks 2 weeks ago.  The Bills are so decimated at receiver that Percy Harvin may start this game opposite Woods.  I like Woods for a bunch of targets and a bunch of production.

Discount Bin

Allen Hurns vs. Lions ($4,100) – Allen Hurns is most likely squaring off with Quandre Diggs, one of the worst cornerbacks in football, in what should be a high scoring affair.  The Jaguars love to pass, and I expect Hurns to get double-digit targets and have his best game of the year.  He will likely be very low owned to boot.

Cameron Meredith vs. Giants ($4,100) – After breaking out for two huge games in weeks 5 and 6, Meredith has received exactly 2 targets in each of the 3 games since.  While it is true that Jay Cutler never really threw to Meredith too much, now that Alshon Jeffery is suspended, Meredith will be Cutler’s tall receiver of choice by default.  I think he will have 8+ targets once again this week and we know what Meredith can do with a big target load.

Malcolm Mitchell vs. 49ers ($3,000) – WARNING! WARNING! This is a deep GPP play only.  Do not use this play in cash games!  Now that I got that out of the way – the 49ers rank last in DVOA defending long passes, and Chris Hogan, the Patriots usual deep threat, has been declared out.  That leaves the Pats with only 4 healthy receivers: short yardage specialists Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, special teamer Matthew Slater and Malcolm Mitchell.  Mitchell only has 7 catches for 95 yards this year, but I expect him to play about half the Patriots snaps this week and for the Pats to take a deep shot or two to him.  I will have him in a lineup or two in my attempt to shoot for the moon.

Tight End

Luxury Item

Delanie Walker vs. Colts ($5,700) – The Colts rank 31st in DVOA versus the tight end, and Walker is quite a good tight end.  He has had 8+ targets in 5 of his last 7 games, including against the Colts 3 weeks ago where he had 7 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown.  With Gronk out, Walker is my top tight end target of the week.

Bang for your Buck

Zach Miller vs. Giants ($3,900) – As I mentioned earlier, with Alshon Jeffery out, Jay Cutler has to throw the ball somewhere.  You can bet that Miller will get his looks as he has 7+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games.  The Giants are very average against the tight end ranking 18th.  I like Miller to play well this week.

Discount Bin

C.J. Fiedorowicz vs. Raiders ($3,300) –  Fiedorowicz may not wow you with his skills, but he has quietly become quite an effective tight end.  He has 5+ targets in his last 6 games and has caught 4+ balls in 5 of those 6 outings.  The Raiders are not great against the tight end, ranking 17th in DVOA.  Fiedorowicz could have 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown this week for a low-low price.

Defense/Special Teams

Bang for your buck

Cardinals vs. Vikings ($3,100) – The Vikings offensive line is a train wreck so you know the Cardinals will get some sacks.  There is some turnover potential here too.

Dolphins vs. Rams ($2,900) – The Dolphins have been playing some pretty decent defense recently, and they get to face Jarred Goff in his first NFL start.  Goff was awful in the preseason and the Dolphins should have a chance to intercept some passes.

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.