Week 10 NFL DraftKings picks

Hi all!  My sincere apologies for the delay this week.  I truly wish that I could write about and play fantasy sports for a living (I really do), but that is not my reality.  Unfortunately for me, my real job got in the way this week and I was unable to find the time to properly research and write this article before the Thursday slate.  I will be back at the regular time next week, but for this week only, I will focus only on the Sunday and Monday games.  I will make up for the delay with some excellent quality.

For you FanDuel players, don’t forget to check out my buddy Eric’s Plays and Stay Aways – which come out on Fridays!

If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.

 

Quarterbacks

Luxury Items

Tom Brady vs. Seahawks ($7,400) – I have a feeling that Brady will be low owned in the contest against the Seahawks vaunted defense.  But as we saw in the Superbowl a couple of years back, Brady can slice and dice this team.  He has had multiple passing touchdowns in every game so far this year and has even rushed for double-digit yards in 3 of 4 games.  I think that Brady is a safe bet for 300 yards and 2+ touchdowns.

Bang for Your Buck

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cowboys ($6,800) – This is a solid price for Roethlisberger at home. While Ben has been very average (or worse) on the road this year, he has been dynamite in Pittsburgh throwing 3+ touchdowns in each home game and topping over 300 yards in 2 of 3 games as well.  The Cowboys defense is not bad, but they rank a slightly below average 17th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA versus the pass.  This should be a good performance for Big Ben.

Discount Bin

Jay Cutler vs. Bucs ($5,300) – The Bucs allow the 6th most yards per game and the 4th most touchdowns through the air this year.  Cutler threw for 250+ yards and a touchdown against a tough Vikings defense.  He should be able to put up some pretty big numbers in what should be an up tempo affair versus Tampa.

Running Back

Luxury Items

David Johnson vs. 49ers ($8,400) – Let’s not get cute here.  The 49ers are the worst team in the NFL in rush defense DVOA and are at the bottom of the league in rush yards allowed and yards per carry.  Johnson is the top running back in DraftKings scoring and should have a field day on Sunday.

Jay Ajayi vs. Chargers ($7,000) – One of my great successes this year was recommending Jay Ajayi the first week he ran for 200 yards.  I have been riding his hot hand ever since.  Considering he has been at 25 DraftKings points or more in his last 3 games, Ajayi is still priced reasonably and should have a great game against a below average Chargers run defense ranked 19th in rush defense DVOA.

Bang for your Buck

Mark Ingram vs. Broncos ($5,400) – The Broncos are surprisingly poor at run defense allowing the 3rd most rushing yards in the NFL, behind only the Browns and the 49ers.  Ingram responded well to his benching two weeks ago and should get plenty of touches this week.  I think he will have a nice week with a pretty low ownership since fantasy owners still believe that Denver’s run defense is elite.

Darren Sproles vs. Falcons ($4,300) – Sproles has been heavily utilized in the last two weeks, receiving 20 and 15 touches – and his 15 touches a week ago would have been even more had he been able to haul in more than 3 of his 9 targets.  This week, Sproles faces the Falcons who rank an ugly 26th in defensive efficiency against running backs catching balls out of the backfield.  In DraftKings’ PPR format, at this price, I like Sproles to have 6+ catches and run for 50+ yards which has immense value.

Discount Bin

Ronnie Hillman vs. Redskins ($3,500) – Warning!  This is a GPP play only!  I watched a good chunk of the Vikings/Lions game last week and Hillman looked like the best back of the Vikings backfield – ahead of Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata.  He had 62 yards on only 8 touches, and I have a feeling that the Minnesota coaching staff is going to want to give him the rock a little more this week.  Washington allows the 2nd most yards per carry in the NFL, so if Hillman gets some good playing time, he could go off.  I like this play in tournaments.

Chris Ivory vs. Texans ($3,400) – The Texans have an elite pass defense, but struggle somewhat against the run, ranking 28th in rush defense DVOA and allowing the 7th most rushing yards in the NFL.  Ivory looked fantastic last week with 107 yards rushing and his day could have been even bigger if he would have been given a touchdown on what was a very close call.  I love Ivory this week at this price.



Wide Receiver

Luxury Items

Mike Evans vs. Bears ($9,000) – Evans has an astounding 103 targets on the year, which is 12 more than his closest competitor in that category.  He has not had less than 11 targets in any game since game 1.  This week he faces the Bears who are only 20th in defensive efficiency against #1 receivers.  He is my top WR play of the week.

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Bengals ($8,800) – Beckham has had double-digit targets in every home game this season and has not scored less than 16.6 DraftKings points in any home tilt.  The Bengals allow the 12th most passing yards per game in the NFL and the 9th most touchdowns.  Beckham should shine this week.

AJ Green vs. Giants ($8,500) – Last year, Green only had double-digit targets in 4 games.  This season, he is 4th in the NFL in targets and has had 5 games with double-digit targets, including an astounding 18 targets last week.  Green has made the most of his targets, as he leads the NFL in yards receiving per game, and is 1 of only 2 players to average more than 100 receiving yards a game.  The Giants allow the 8th most passing yards per game and Green is in position for an excellent week.

Bang for your Buck

Kelvin Benjamin vs. Chiefs ($6,800) – Benjamin is extremely consistent and has been at 70+ yards each of the last four weeks.  This week he faces off against the Chiefs who rank 21st in defensive efficiency versus #1 receivers.  Benjamin should have another nice game this week.

Alshon Jeffery vs. Bucs ($6,600) – I already told you that the Bucs allow the 6th most yards per game and the 4th most touchdowns through the air when I recommended Jay Cutler.  Do you know who Cutler always throws the ball to?  Alshon Jeffery!  Jeffery has had no less than 14.6 fantasy points in the 3 games that Cutler has been in the lineup this year.  In the 5 games without Cutler, Jeffery only had more than 14.6 fantasy points one time.  Alshon is an elite receiver once again with his main man back at the helm.

Jordan Matthews vs. Falcons ($5,900) – Matthews saw a steady diet of targets the last two weeks with double-digit targets in both games.  If Matthews gets the ball again this week he should do some damage against the Falcons who are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency against slot receivers.

Discount Bin

Mohammed Sanu vs. Eagles ($4,600) – Sanu is starting to see the ball more as he has had 7+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games, including two games with double-digit targets.  The Eagles might be able to slow down Julio a bit as they are ranked 2nd in DVOA against #1 receivers, but they are only ranked 21st against #2 receivers.  Sanu should get the ball quite a bit this week and can do some damage at this low price.

Dontrelle Inman vs. Dolphins ($3,400) – Inman has had 6+ targets and 56+ yards receiving each of the last 3 weeks.  While those numbers don’t jump off the page, he is a consistent part of the Chargers offense and should continue to see looks.  There are not many low-priced receivers that get a lot of opportunities.  I love him as a GPP play.

Eli Rogers vs. Cowboys ($3,500) – Rogers set a season high in receiving yards, targets and tied his season high in receptions last week.  Ordinarily, I don’t like to pay for last week’s stats, but Rogers is a talented rookie who is still very affordable.  If he can manage to get another 10 targets like he did last week, he is an excellent play at a bargain basement price.  I will pay to find out if he can repeat his great performance in some GPPs.



Tight End

Luxury Item

Jimmy Graham vs. Patriots ($5,300) – To my eye, Jimmy Graham looks like the Jimmy Graham of old and is severely underpriced at $5,300.  Graham has had 8+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games and has gone over 100 yards receiving in 3 of those 6 games.  The Patriots rank a mediocre 24th against the tight end.  This should be another good week for Graham.

Bang for your Buck

Zach Ertz vs. Falcons ($3,700) – The Falcons rank only 18th in defensive efficiency against the tight end and Ertz caught all 8 of his targets for 97 yards last week.  It has been a disappointing year for Ertz, but perhaps last week was the catalyst to turn it around.  This is great value at $3,700.

Discount Bin

Lance Kendricks vs. Jets ($3,000) – In last week’s FanDuel article, my colleague Eric relayed a story about his wife picking up Lance Kendricks as a streamer in season long fantasy and made a convincing argument for using him in daily.  I happily heeded to Eric’s advice last week and Kendricks had 7 catches on 12 (!) targets for 90 yards.  He is a staple of the Rams offense with 8+ targets in each of the last 3 games.  So with a tip of the hat to Eric’s wife, I will be playing Lance Kendricks again this week.

Defense/Special Teams

Bang for your buck

Cardinals vs. 49ers ($3,700) – The 49ers are a near lock to turn the ball over and the Cardinals have an excellent defense.  This should be a good safe play.

Bears vs. Bucs ($2,500) – The Bears have had 7+ points on defense in their last 3 games and the Bucs are turnover prone.  If you want to save some shekels on your defense, this is a good place to look.

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.
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