Week 7 NFL DraftKings picks

Oh what could have been!  I always research and write this article before I look at which players others in the fantasy community are recommending.  This is mainly for two reasons:

  1. I don’t want other peoples’ opinions to influence my opinion here, and
  2. I don’t want to inadvertently borrow someone else’s work.

Last week, my research liked Golden Tate, who scored 33.8 DraftKings points, and Jay Ajayi who scored 36.7 DraftKings points as cheap plays, and I wrote about them.  But as the week progressed, I was reading more and more articles by others and pivoted my action away from Tate and Ajayi and instead relied on Tyler Lockett (5.5 DraftKings points) and Tavon Austin (5.6 DraftKings points).  If I would have kept some of my original lineups, which also included guys like Brees, Christine Michael, Jonathan Stewart and Brandin Cooks (all recommended in this space last week), I would have had a profit in the thousands.  Instead I made $6.  

Trust your instincts folks!  Trust your instincts.  Let’s see if I can come up with some good stuff again this week. And, as a reminder, if you are a FanDuel and not a DraftKings player, please be sure to look out for my buddy Eric S’s Plays and Stay Aways, which will come out tomorrow.

Any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter

Quarterbacks

Luxury Items

Matt Ryan vs. Chargers ($7,200) – Ryan ranks 1st in the NFL in passing yards and 2nd in passing touchdowns.  The Chargers, on the flip side, have allowed the 7th most passing yards in the NFL.  I think this will be a shootout and Ryan will have another monster game.

Bang for Your Buck

Matthew Stafford vs. Redskins ($6,400) – Stafford is 3rd in the NFL in passing touchdowns and has thrown for 3+ touchdowns in his last two home starts.  In my mind, he is a top-6 quarterback this week and he is priced quite reasonably.  Let’s take advantage.

Discount Bin

Brian Hoyer vs. Packers ($5,900) – Green Bay is ranked 3rd in DVOA versus the run and 17th versus the pass.  Thus, the Bears should have a pass heavy game plan.  Hoyer has passed for 300+ yards in 4 straight games.  I like him to make it 5 in a row on Thursday night.

Running Back

Luxury Items

LeVeon Bell vs. Patriots ($8,000) – Bell did not dominate last week against the Dolphins like I thought he would, but I am going back to the well this week.  With Roethlisberger injured, I expect a run heavy game plan, and lots of the #1 RB in the league should mean lots of production.  While it is true that the Patriots have a solid run defense, Bell is talented enough to shine.

DeMarco Murray vs. Colts ($7,200) – Murray is 4th in the league in rushing yards.  The Colts are last in the league in rush defense DVOA.  Sometimes it is just that simple.  I like Murray for a huge day, though beware that his ownership will likely be sky-high.  I don’t hate a fade in GPPs, but this is a must play in cash games.

Bang for your Buck

Spencer Ware vs. Saints ($5,800) – The Saints are not a strong run defense and rank 30th in the NFL in rushing DVOA.  While Jamaal Charles is back, Ware was definitely the lead back last week with 26 touches and he made the most of those with a huge day.  I don’t see the Chiefs benching the guy who is 4th in the NFL in yards per carry and I think Ware has a nice game against New Orleans.

Giovanni Bernard vs. Browns ($4,800) – Bernard is clearly establishing himself as the lead back in Cincinnati with double-digit touches in his last 4 games, and his touches increasing in each of the 4 games as well.  This culminated on Sunday as he had 19 touches against the Patriots including 15 rushes.  Bernard did not stand out against the Patriots stingy run defense, but if his workload keeps increasing, he should have a great day against the Browns.

Discount Bin

Matt Jones vs. Lions ($4,200) – I am very confused by this price for a guy who is 9th in the NFL in rushing yards and has 100 yard games in 2 of his last 3 outings.  It is not like the Lions, who rank 32nd in overall defensive DVOA and 26th against the run are a super tough match-up.  Jones will be in many of my lineups this week, though I fear that ownership will be very high.

Bilal Powell vs. Ravens ($3,700) – Word out of New York is that Geno Smith has been named the starting QB for the Jets this weekend.  That means many short throws, which are Powell’s MO.  Powell has 6+ catches in 3 of his last 4 games and I like him for 7-8 catches this week, which would be a monster game in DraftKings’ full point PPR scoring.

Wide Receiver

Luxury Items

Julio Jones vs. Chargers ($9,200) – Just as his QB leads the NFL in passing yards, Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards.  The Chargers, as stated before, give up the 7th most yards in the air, and I like Jones to take advantage.

TY Hilton vs. Titans ($7,700) – The Titans have a very strong rush defense and I expect the Colts to be passing a lot.  That is good news for Hilton who is 2nd in the NFL in targets and has had double-digit targets in 5 straight games.  I think 13-15 targets are in order this week and that could mean a monster game.

Marvin Jones vs. Redskins ($7,000) – Jones has not had big yardage or target games his last two outings, but he still is 7th in the NFL in receiving yards and has had 70+ yards or a touchdown reception in every single game this year.  I think his ownership will be minuscule and he could put up a big score.  I will have 30%+ exposure in GPPs.

Bang for your Buck

Michael Crabtree vs. Jaguars ($6,600) – The Jaguars rank 26th in DVOA versus #2 receivers, and Crabtree is probably the best #2 receiver in the NFL.  The Raiders’ star ranks tied for 1st with 5 touchdowns on the year, and I think 100+ yards and a touchdown are in order again this week.

Demaryius Thomas vs. Texans ($6,300) – In my mind, this is still one of the top 5 most talented receivers in the league, but he has not been getting the same opportunity as in years past.  Don’t look now, but Thomas finally hit double-digit targets last week, and if he continues to see that sort of volume he will break out.  Similar to Marvin Jones, this is a GPP play only, but I think that Thomas will break out this week and will have low ownership to boot.

Mike Wallace vs. Jets ($5,800) – The Jets’ pass defense has been abysmal, allowing the 2nd most passing yards on the year.  Wallace has been the Ravens’ #1 receiver and has 9+ targets in his last 3 games.  He is also a speed merchant and the Jets have been beaten deep countless times this year.  I like Wallace for a huge game.

Discount Bin

Cameron Meredith vs. Packers ($4,900) – Eventually DraftKings will raise his price to the proper level, but take advantage of this low price for another week.  Meredith has had consecutive weeks of 12+ targets, 9+ catches and 113+ yards.  He will have no problem making value.

Brandon LaFell vs. Browns ($3,900) – The Browns rank an abysmal 30th in DVOA versus #2 receivers.  This could mean a big game for LaFell who has 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games.  At this price, I will pay to find out.

Ty Montgomery vs. Bears ($3,000) – Wide Receiver Montgomery took many snaps out of the Packers’ backfield on Sunday when Eddie Lacy needed a rest, and he responded with 10 catches on 12 targets and 3 rushes as well.  Lacy will be missing the game on Sunday and so will James Starks.  That means that Don Jackson, called up from the practice squad this week, and Knile Davis, traded from the Chiefs are the only running backs on the Packers’ roster.  Montgomery will likely play a bunch out of the backfield on Thursday and should have a big day at this price.

Tight End

Luxury Item

Rob Gronkowski vs. Steelers ($7,200) – If you save money elsewhere and can afford Gronk at tight end, you should pay up.  He has 7+ targets and 100+ yards each game that Tom Brady has been in the lineup.  No reason to expect anything different this week.

Bang for your Buck

Julius Thomas vs. Raiders ($3,900) – The Raiders are 26th in DVOA versus the tight end and I expect Thomas to be a bigger part of the game plan than he was last week when he just returned from injury.  I like his value at this price.

Discount Bin

Cameron Brate vs. 49ers ($2,900) – With Vincent Jackson out with an ACL injury, the Bucs don’t have all that many viable receiving options.  Brate has 8+ targets in 2 of his last 3 games and costs less than the cheapest wide receiver.  I would even consider him in a FLEX spot if you want to get multiple studs in your lineup.

Defense/Special Teams

Bang for your buck

Broncos vs. Texans ($3,800) – This is the most expensive defense of the week, but pay for them if you have the budget.  Osweiler has been turnover prone and the Broncos are still an elite defense.

Ravens vs. Jets ($2,800) – A pretty good defense for only $2,800 against Geno Smith?  Yes please!

For any further questions, follow me on twitter

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.