Ladies and gentlemen, it is great to be back here to give you some daily fantasy football guidance. The last two weeks have actually been my DFS quasi-offseason as I have only been playing daily fantasy football since the end of the baseball regular season. Now that hockey is back, I am back into the daily grind. But football is still the most fun to both play and write about, so let’s get right to this.
And, as a reminder, if you are a FanDuel and not a DraftKings player, please be sure to look out for my buddy Eric S’s Plays and Stay Aways, which will come out tomorrow.
Any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter Follow @AssemblyNeil
Drew Brees vs. Panthers ($7,900) – Drew Brees definitely likes Cajun home cookin’. In his last 7 home starts, he has thrown at least 3 touchdowns in every single one of them! If that were not enough, he has gone over 340 passing yards in 6 of those 7 games with the only exception being a still very solid 282 yard, 3 touchdown effort last season. The Panthers’ formerly great pass defense is ranked 22nd in DVOA through the air. Brees should be in line for another great week.
Bang for Your Buck
Blake Bortles vs. Bears ($6,300) – If I was a real life Jaguars fan I would hate Bortles since he tempts you with his talent, but then plays terribly until garbage time. For fantasy, however, his garbage time stats still count. Bortles has gone over 300 yards in 3 of his last 4 road games and faces a middling Bears’ pass defense. I love him at this price.
Tyrod Taylor vs. 49ers ($5,300) – I honestly do not understand this price for Taylor who is not the best passer in the world, but always has a solid floor due to his rushing yards. Taylor has scored 15.75 DraftKings points or more every week in the last 4 and is 2nd among QBs in rushing yards. The 49ers rank 23rd in DVOA against the run. Taylor should be a cash game staple at this price.
LeVeon Bell vs. Dolphins ($7,900) – Apologies to David Johnson, but LeVeon Bell is the best running back in football and he faces off against the team that has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL. This could be a 175 yard rushing, 75 yard receiving day. Don’t cheap out. Bell will be in over 50% of my lineups.
Christine Michael vs. Falcons ($6,800) – 11 is the lucky number in this match-up. The Falcons rank 11th worst in the NFL in yards per carry, while Michael himself is 11th in the NFL in yards per carry. Somehow, I think that 11+11 = 5, as Michael will be a top 5 running back this week.
Bang for your Buck
Jonathan Stewart vs. Saints ($5,100) – Stewart has missed some time and Fozzy Whitaker has been pretty solid in his absence, but it looks like the Panthers’ starting running back will playing this week. If Stewart does indeed play, he gets to face the team that is ranked 30th in rush defense DVOA and is tied for the most rushing TDs allowed with 8. I like Stewart for a nice game and I think that he will be low owned as well.
Isaiah Crowell vs. Titans ($4,600) – I really do not understand this price. Crowell is 5th in the NFL in rushing yards and is 2nd in the NFL in yards per carry and yet is priced below non-starting running backs. On top of that, the Browns are likely to start their 5th string quarterback, so they certainly will be running the ball a lot. The Titans have a decent run defense, but on volume alone, this is an excellent play.
James White vs. Bengas ($4,100) – Weekly reminder – DraftKings is full point PPR! The Bengals rank 24th in defensive efficiency versus running backs catching the ball and with Tom Brady back in the fold, White has taken over playing the majority of the snaps for the Patriots. I could see 6+ catches 50+ receiving yards and 30+ rushing yards which would be an excellent day at this price.
Jay Ajayi vs. Steelers ($3,500) – Arian Foster may play this week, but even if he does, I think he will be on a pitch count, meaning that Ajayi could get 15+ touches. The Dolphins’ back has scored touchdowns in 2 of his last 3 games and I like him for double-digit points, which would be a score at this price.
AJ Green vs. Patriots ($8,600) – The reason that Green lagged behind the other top flight receivers in the past was because he got fewer targets than the Antonio Brown’s or Julio Jones’ of the world. That is no longer the case as Green has accumulated 8 or more targets every game this season. The Patriots rank 20th in DVOA against #1 receivers and Green should be targeted 10+ times. I like him for a nice game.
Allen Robinson vs. Bears ($7,800) – It has been a bit of a disappointing year thus far for Robinson who has yet to have 100 yards receiving in a game. That being said, he has had 10+ targets in 3 of his 4 games and he faces the 27th ranked defense against #1 receivers. I think this will be his breakout performance.
Brandin Cooks vs. Panthers ($7,600) – I feel like this will be a very low owned play as Cooks has had 31 yards receiving or less in each of his last two games. The Panthers, however, are allowing 10.5 catches and 104.8 yards on average to #1 receivers this year. Cooks could put on a show at the Superdome this weekend.
Bang for your Buck
Jordan Matthews vs. Redskins ($6,700) – The Eagles look to get back on track this week after their first loss of the season. One way to get going is to exploit the Redskins’ pass defense which has allowed the 8th most yards this season. Matthews is still the #1 target for the Eagles and I expect him to play well.
Jeremy Maclin vs. Raiders ($6,300) – The Raiders pass defense is not great ranking 29th in DVOA versus the pass. Maclin has had 7+ targets in every game this year and should see plenty of action. His action should turn into production against this Raiders squad.
Will Fuller vs. Colts ($5,900) – Fuller is still criminally underpriced as he leads the Texans in both targets and receiving yards. The Colts rank 30th in DVOA versus the pass and Fuller should roam free for much of this game. He has gotten 6+ targets every game and I think he will have 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown on Sunday night.
NOTE: Fuller is not expected to play tonight.
John Brown vs. Jets ($4,500) – This is a boom or bust tournament play, but the Jets have been susceptible to the deep ball, allowing 12.9 yards catch which is tied for 4th worst in the NFL. Carson Palmer looks to be back and he will throw it deep to Brown at least 3 times this game. If Brown can catch a couple of those deep balls, he could have a huge day.
Golden Tate vs. Rams ($4,400) – While it is true that Tate has not been the focal point of the Lions’ offense like he was last year (in non Megatron games), his price has dropped a little bit too much here. The Lions tried to get him involved last week as he had 5 targets and ran the ball 3 times. I expect him to have a pretty steady role and that could pay off at this low price.
Cameron Meredith vs. Jaguars ($4,100) – This will likely be a highly owned play, but rightfully so after Meredith had 9 catches on 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown last week. Most importantly, he looked the part of an NFL receiver and I expect more big games from him. Meredith is a must in cash games, and I will not be fading him in GPPs either.
Jimmy Graham vs. Falcons ($4,900) – We have been waiting a couple of years for Jimmy Graham to look like himself and he finally does, with back to back 100 yard games. The Falcons are 22nd in DVOA versus tight-ends and I think Graham makes a run for his 3rd straight triple digit receiving game. He is usable as a flex play as well at this price.
Bang for your Buck
Jesse James vs. Dolphins ($3,000) – I love this price for a guy who has caught touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games and also amassed 8 targets last week. Big Ben loves James in the end zone and Pittsburgh should be scoring a lot this week. Could be another double-digit point effort.
Virgil Green vs. Chargers ($2,800) – Green comes back from injury tonight and he was looking to be an integral part of the Broncos passing offense before he went down mid-way through the 2nd game of the season. Green is still priced like a back-up, but I think he will see 6+ targets and could be in line for 50+ yards and a score.
Bang for your buck
Rams vs. Lions ($2,900) – The Rams defense has scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Lions are a good but not great offense that could turn the ball over a couple of times too.
Ravens vs. Giants ($2,600) – The Ravens are ranked 5th in the NFL in defensive DVOA and face the turnover prone Giants offense. This is a great price for this defense.
For any further questions, follow me on twitter Follow @AssemblyNeil
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