The theme with a lot this week’s start or sit is about the matchups. One thing that needs to be kept in mind when you are looking at points against is how it happened. Just because the Falcons are giving up a lot of points to quarterbacks doesn’t mean the defense is bad; the same with the Steelers. Some teams provide game scripts that help lead to big games from quarterbacks.
The Falcons have scored a lot this season. This tends to lead to opposing teams throwing a lot. Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. If you look closer you can see a big reason why. Opposing teams have averaged 44.75 passing attempts per game. That includes three games where teams have thrown at least 45 times!
I would trust going against a defense like the Lions more where teams are having a ton of success, but it doesn’t require teams to throw 45 times.
Also, remember that points against can be deceiving with such a small sample size. A team isn’t bad against a position. The Chargers have allowed 3.65 yards per carry and have yet to allow a team’s running backs to combine for more than 93 yards, but they allowed a big receiving game to Spencer Ware in week one and three touchdowns to John Kuhn last week.
Don’t be deceived by good or bad matchups. Look deeper at the situations before just seeing 30th against quarterbacks and assuming its a good matchup.
A disclaimer here on the “what you can expect” section because I don’t think I ever really explained it. This is not what the player is locked into. This is an if this pick works out what you can expect. It does not take into account the player’s floor or a ceiling. For a lot of the digging deep options the floor might be 2-3 points while the players that are starts are 7-8 points.
If you have any players you have a question on feel free to ask in the comment section below or on Twitter. Follow @TheSportsGuy40
Finally, please check out No Halftime, it is the ultimate start and sit DFS platform. Think Eli Manning outscores Cam Newton? Put a contest out there and put your money where your mouth is, or find an existing challenge to accept. No Halftime also has contests in other sports as well.
Eli Manning @ Packers: Yea, how can I recommend this guy as a start after how bad the passing offense looked on Monday? The Packers have a great run defense and the way to beat them is through the air. With Sam Shields looking out again, the Packers look like a good bet to be thrown on again. Quarterbacks facing the Packers have averaged 19.7 points per game this season.
What you can expect: 300 yards, two touchdowns, one interception
Carson Wentz @ Lions: Remember what I said about the Packers being beat through the air? The Lions might be worse even with Darius Slay. Through four games the Lions are the second most generous team to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed 12 passing touchdowns. Wentz looks like the real deal so far.
What you can expect: 275 yards, two touchdowns
Philip Rivers @ Raiders: Picking on another juicy matchup with Rivers. The Raiders are getting torched through the air this season. The only quarterback to fail to score at least 21 points was Marcus Mariota in week three.
What you can expect: 300 yards, two touchdowns
Matt Ryan @ Broncos: From 500 yards to the bench. Since the start of last season (20 games) the Broncos have averaged giving up 12 points per game to quarterbacks. The only quarterbacks to score more than 15 points were Cam Newton (11 points came on the ground), Andrew Luck last season, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger. I can’t with confidence start Ryan even after the explosion last week.
What you can expect: 225 yards, one touchdown, one interception
Matt Stafford vs. Eagles: As an owner of him in a handful of leagues I have been trying to find a different option for this week. The Eagles defense is good, and Stafford is going to be without Eric Ebron. The hope here is that he ends up producing by throwing the ball 45 times because of the lack of a ground game.
What you can expect: 275 yards, one touchdown, one interception
Ryan Fitzpatrick @ Steelers: Mr. 10 interceptions isn’t a terrible option this week. The Steelers have been a decent matchup for fantasy quarterbacks when Roethlisberger is in the lineup. Alex Smith threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns, Carson Wentz 301 and two, Dalton 366 and one, and Kirk Cousins 329 (but couldn’t find the end zone). If you are in a deep league or aren’t able to get a Wentz, Manning, or Rivers, Fitzpatrick isn’t as bad as you might think.
What you can expect: 300 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions
Frank Gore vs. Bears: Gore’s workload is locked in. He won’t ever be a week winner with 150 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears, other than last week against primarily Theo Riddick, have not been great against the run this season.
What you can expect: 70 yards rushing, one catch for 10 yards, one rushing touchdown
LeGarrette Blount @ Browns: Yea, Brady is back, but this is a prime Blount game. The Patriots should throttle the Browns and Blount should get a heavy workload.
What you can expect: 80 yards rushing and one touchdown
Jordan Howard @ Colts: Howard burst onto the scene in his first start by earning nearly all the running back touches. The Colts have allowed either 100 yards or a touchdown to opposing running backs this season – this accounts for all the team’s running backs. So last week all the Jaguars backs, not just the lead back. The good news for Howard is he is going to handle pretty much 90 percent of the teams snaps so that doesn’t really matter. Also, the Colts are the first team ever to not take a bye after a London game. He is this week’s No Halftime play.
What you can expect: 90 yards rushing, three catches for 25 yards receiving, one rushing touchdown
I am just saying this now. It is nearly impossible to really recommend sits with how bad the running back position is now. So don’t be shocked when I am saying bench some lower end guys. Odds are, for a lot of you, these guys are actually starting options.
Theo Riddick vs. Eagles: He is a PPR play or a low-end flex but nothing more. There is so little run game upside for Riddick; he has to do most of his damage through the air.
What you can expect: 30 yards rushing, five catches for 50 yards receiving
Charles Sims @ Panthers: Keep an eye on his status this weekend, but I don’t think he is going to play this week.
What you can expect (if he plays): 30 yards rushing, three catches 30 yards receiving
DeAndre Washington vs. Chargers: With news of Latavius Murray not playing Sunday, Washington is the next man up. They are going to split the Carries, but I would think Washington is the one to get more of the work. Richard has played a few more snaps so far this season, but it seems like Washington is the next man up.
What you can expect: 50 yards rushing, two catches for 25 yards receiving
James White @ Browns: With Brady back he becomes a solid PPR play as a borderline top-25 back.
What you can expect: 25 yards rushing, four catches for 50 yards receiving
Terrance West vs. Redskins: He is the guy in Baltimore until proven otherwise. I can’t imagine they go from, giving him 21 carries and him going for over 100 yards. Dixon will get worked in, but until proven otherwise West is the guy to start.
What you can expect: 85 yards rushing, one catch for 10 yards
Bobby Rainey @ Packers: He takes over the Shane Vereen role. In a game the Giants should need to pass, Rainey is again a solid PPR play and could provide desperation numbers for someone with injury and bye week problems.
What you can expect: 15 yards rushing, 5 catches for 50 yards receiving
Zach Zenner vs. Eagles: Someone has to be the early down and between the tackles back for the Lions. Riddick is going to handle most of the work, but Zenner should be the short yardage and early down back.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing and one touchdown
Cameron Artis-Payne vs. Buccaneers: Cam Newton is currently in the concussion protocol, and crazy as it might sound, if he is out Artis-Payne becomes a better play. He would no longer have to share carries with the quarterback and should get a better chance to score when they get in close.
What you can expect: 50 yards rushing and one touchdown
Jalen Richard vs. Chargers: If Washington was already owned or you didn’t get to the wire fast enough to get him, Richard isn’t a terrible desperation play. Then again, is there such a thing as a bad desperation play? He might finish with eight touches, but there is always that chance that Washington has a few early runs that go nowhere and Richard has a few that he looks good on and Richard jumps to being the lead back for that game and handles 15 touches.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing, three catches for 30 yards receiving.
Jaquizz Rodgers @ Panthers: I think he is the lead guy while splitting work with Peyton Barber. If you have been ravaged by injuries or byes, here is a starting option for you that you can get off the wire now.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing, three catches for 30 yards receiving
Julian Edelman @ Browns: In his last 16 games with Brady: 176 targets, 119 catches, 1,355 yards, and 10 touchdowns. When healthy he is one of the better receiver options in fantasy. Issues have been health, and as of right now his health doesn’t appear to be an issue.
What you can expect: Eight catches for 100 yards and one touchdown
Sterling Shepard @ Packers: The Packers can be beat through the air as noted earlier. Shepard and Beckham should both be in for big games.
What you can expect: Seven catches for 90 yards
Amari Cooper vs. Chargers: No Jason Verrett means Cooper should be able to have an easier time. Teams might start diverting attention to Michael Crabtree. Cooper’s breakout is coming.
What you can expect: Six catches for 90 yards
Terrelle Pryor vs. Patriots: His hype train got a little out of control after one week of getting limited snaps at quarterback. Right now he is the number one receiver in a bad offense. Something tells me the Patriots will be able to hold him in check.
What you can expect: Three catches for 40 yards and 10 yards rushing
Randall Cobb vs. Giants: He just isn’t the guy he was a few years ago.
What you can expect: Three catches for 25 yards
Quincy Enunwa @ Steelers: The game script should be beneficial for him as the Jets should be playing from behind and won’t have Decker. He is questionable with a knee injury so make sure he is active.
What you can expect (if he plays): Six catches for 80 yards
Robert Woods @ Rams: He’s the number one option. That’s about all I can really say.
What you can expect: Six catches for 75 yards
Sammie Coates vs. Jets: Coates ranks 19th in receiving yards this season and gets the Jets who have been giving up yards through the air all year.
What you can expect: Four catches for 80 yards
Martellus Bennett @ Browns: Rob Gronkowski still might not be 100 percent, and Bennett has already had two 100-yard games this season.
What you can expect: Four catches for 60 yards and a touchdown
Zach Miller @ Colts: With Kevin White on the IR and Hoyer already looking to Miller a lot, he is a locked in play week-to-week.
What you can expect: Five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown
Zach Ertz @ Lions: He is back for the Eagles and should be back in your lineup. The Lions have allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season in four games.
What you can expect: Five catches for 60 yards
Ryan Griffin @ Vikings: Ready for some unfair math that might be meaningless? When Bill O’Brien was at Penn State he used the tight end a lot. He also did in New England as an offensive coordinator, but he had two big playmakers. In his two seasons as a head coach at Penn State his tight ends amassed a 90 catch, 1,177-yard, 11 touchdown line. Now, this combines three tight ends because Penn State never really had a lead guy.
Well, Bill took over the play calling duties last week, and his tight ends combined for seven catches for 102 yards and a touchdown. Griffen has been the lead tight end most of the year, and Fiedorowicz is now battling a sprained MCL. If Fiedorowicz is out, Griffen could be a top-10 play that has your owners scratching their heads Sunday morning and you looking like a genius by Sunday night. All this being said, don’t be shocked if this doesn’t work out.
What you can expect: Six catches for 70 yards
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