Welcome to the season finale everyone! What a great year it has been for me, and I hope that you have all benefited as well. Truth be told, because it is a holiday for me today, and because of my NFL DFS entries, I think I am skipping baseball today, so I have played my last MLB contest until 2017. That does not mean that you should not play as there is an exciting 15 game slate with all games starting at 3:00. Hopefully we can make this last day a profitable one for you.
As I always do when I finish a DFS season, I just ran my numbers for the entire MLB campaign and here are the results:
- Contests entered: 998
- Buy-Ins: $3,074.75
- Winnings: $4,770.08
- Profit: $1,695.33
- ROI: 55.14%
- Win Rate: 27.56%
- Average Buy-In: $3.08
What you see from those numbers is that, as I always say, I am a profitable, low stakes grinder. There are guys who spend more on buy-ins in one day than I did in the entire season. That said, and not to humbly brag too much, my ROI of 55.14%, over a pretty large sample size, in a game where the rake has crept up over 15% is pretty damn impressive. I sometimes wonder how I would do if I would devote more time and bankroll to this hobby – but I like to keep this fun for me and keep the pressure off, so I don’t think that I will change the way I play. Alright, enough about me, let’s see who I like in this slate.
As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Salvador Perez vs. Josh Tomlin – 15/26 with 8 doubles and a HR
- Evan Longoria vs. Martin Perez – 5/10 with 2 doubles and a HR
- Bryce Harper vs. Tom Koehler – 11/30 with 6 HR, a double and 6 BB
- Jose Bautista vs. David Price – 20/58 with 6 HR, 4 doubles and 8 BB
Stacks to Target:
1. Brewers at Rockies – This is your last chance to dance with Coors Field until 2017!
2. Cardinals vs. Ryan Vogelsong – The Cards are a dynamite offense against right-handed pitching with a .331 team wOBA and .193 ISO. Vogelsong comes in ice-cold with an 8.72 ERA and a .417 wOBA. Included in those September struggles was a rough start against these same Cardinals on September 6 where he allowed 5 runs in 4 innings. I like the Cardinals to beat up on Vogelsong in their must win game.
3. White Sox vs. Jose Berrios – Berrios has been such a train wreck this season that his last start, where he allowed 3 runs in 4.2 IP with 0 strikeouts registered as the 2nd best start of his career per Game Score. Berrios’ ERA sits at 8.61 and he allows a .440 wOBA to right-handed batters. The White Sox should have some fun in the last day of the season.
Pitchers of the Day:
1. Justin Verlander vs. Braves – The Braves offense has been great recently, but the Tigers have to win this one and I think their ace does the job. Verlander has had an amazing resurgent season. His K-Rate is the highest of his career, his K/9 and BAA are the 2nd best of his career, and he is sports his lowest ERA since 2012. Much of this is due to his highest fastball velocity since 2012. It is great to see Verlander back and I think he has another virtuoso performance today.
2. Matt Moore vs. Dodgers – Yes – Moore got destroyed for 6 runs in one innings against the Dodgers in his last start against them, but he held them to one hit in 8.2 IP the turn before. The Dodgers have a weak .278 team wOBA and .122 ISO against lefties, and Moore has a solid 3.54 ERA and .290 wOBA at home. I am banking on the good Moore in a huge game for the G-Men.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- Dodgers at Giants – chance of rain (though I can’t imagine that this game will be postponed unless there is a monsoon).
Platoon Split Hitters
- Nelson Cruz vs. Sean Manaea – Cruz is having another impressive year against southpaws with a .419 wOBA and 171 wRC+.
- Franklin Gutierrez vs. Sean Manaea – Gutierrez is a great platoon guy again this year with a solid .383 wOBA and 146 wRC+ against lefties.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
Go to Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.