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Buy Low/Sell High: Week 3

Buy Low Sell High LogoWhen is it time to panic? After one week? Two? Can we panic now?

I like to not completely panic until after week four. However when panic after week one, two, and three keep adding up, maybe now is the time to make the move and not wait until after that last week.

Bye weeks start in week four so the lineups that a lot of your league had are about to change. People are going to try to cover their bye weeks and anyone with any kind of running back depth is about to get great value.

Remember that when you are making your trades. Outside of the elite receivers, they are a dime a dozen. Finding a running back with a pulse is worth a borderline starting receiver. Any running back that can score 10 points is a top-20 back and going to net a solid return.

Don’t just trade your backs away for anything though. Make your trade partner pay up if they need the running back.

And don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter for Sunday morning active and inactive players as well as in-game injury news and anything else football related.

Buy Low

WR – Kelvin Benjamin

He inexplicably got one target and didn’t haul it in. His first two weeks of success shouldn’t have his owners panicking like they could have been after a week one no-show. Benjamin is a prime buy low target because he came with preseason worry and he has also shown that he can be a lead receiver. He isn’t the top-10 receiver he was billed as by many before this week, but he also isn’t outside the top-20 and I think you might be able to buy him as a low-end second receiver when he should give high-end wide receiver two numbers.

Potential buy low offer: Isaiah Crowell and Randall Cobb for Benjamin

RB – Jerrick McKinnon

He didn’t have an eye-popping day, just 16 for 45 on the ground. He played the snaps that we were told he would, out snapped Asiata 36 to 19. If McKinnon continues to get 15-18 touches he will find better success. He wont get the Panthers every week.

Potential buy low offer: Jeremy Maclin for McKinnon

TE – Rob Gronkowski

Brady is about to come back and Gronk should be getting back to full health soon. His owner might be 0-3 right now after spending an early round pick on a complete zero through three weeks. This might be the last chance to buy low. After next weeks game, even if it’s a bad one, his owner knows Brady is coming back and fantasy goodness is on its way.

Potential buy low offer: Carlos Hyde for Gronkowski



Sell High

RB – LeGarrette Blount

He has one more game in the role of the 25 carry per game back. Once Brady returns this offense will change. Don’t tell me the Patriots will continue to run Blount 25 times per game and limit Brady’s passing. Blount will return to what he was last year, but there is nothing wrong with what he was last season. Blount is going to be great in games the Patriots are winning, but there will be a lot of games where he is near non-existent. I think you might be able to get him for high-end running back two value.

Potential sell high offer: Blount for Amari Cooper 

RB – Latavius Murray

He is in a running back by committee that no one really notices because he has been putting up points and finding the end zone. He had 10 carries while Washington and Richard had six each. Trade him before the game where people realize this is a full blow committee.

Potential sell high offer:  Dez Bryant and Murray for Antonio Brown 

RB – Christine Michael

In reality this one could blow up in your face if I am being completely honest. I think when Rawls is around Michael doesn’t get a full workload like today. While Michael had a great game almost all of it came in the first 10 minutes. If he does end up taking over as the full-time lead back this is a bad call, but I am betting against it.

Potential sell high offer: Michael for Eric Decker

RB – Jeremy Hill

This is his first truly great game in a while. The most surprising part is that it came against the Broncos. I just can’t see him doing it again after how many times over the past year he has struggled and split time with Bernard.

Potential sell high offer: Hill and T.Y. Hilton for Lamar Miller

WR – Emmanuel Sanders

I am running far away from Sanders. He is so boom or bust and there are not nearly enough booms to keep me interested. The quarterback situation can’t be trusted in Denver and more often than not CJ Anderson will get touchdowns.

Potential sell high offer: Sanders for Tevin Coleman

WR – Julio Jones

How is he a sell high? He hasn’t even played his game yet. Well Julio is one of the best players in fantasy. Probably a top-five pick again if we redid the draft, but after the easy matchup with the Saints he plays Carolina, Denver, and Seattle. Odds are he wont be completely shut down because he is one of the best talents in football, but he won’t be the top-three receiver you drafted.

Potential sell high offer: Jones for David Johnson

Buy High

WR – Marvin Jones

I love Marvin Jones and could have easily touted him as a buy in previous weeks. I just don’t want people to see this week and think they need to deal him. Maybe trade for him. He is a borderline third/fourth round pick if we drafted again today. I have a feeling someone in your league will be looking to move him thinking this is a sell high opportunity. Don’t miss your chance.

Potential buy high offer: Theo Riddick and Michael Crabtree for Jones

Sell Low

RB – Ryan Mathews

Unless the price is literally the worst player off of someone’s bench I would want to get rid of Mathews. He barely played last week and I don’t remember seeing him on the field after the first quarter this week. The Eagles used three other running backs to run all over the Steelers at the end of the game.

Potential sell low: Ryan Mathews for Dwayne Washington

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

67 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High: Week 3

  1. Owner of Dez and Decker is 0-3. Is Thomas + Langford worth it for Dez? Does Decker have WR1 upside?

    • Or Josh Gordon and Langford for Decker?

      • Woops I thought I types a response here earlier but it must not have gone through.

        Essentially if you can get anything for Langford now do it. The injury plus losing touches are making his value plummet to almost nothing.

        If you can pull those off go for it but I wouldnt expect it to go through

  2. Nobody is taking Langford now…

    great read, Andy… as usual! I don’t get the Miller love (from everyone) though. Texans are over hyped, imo.

    • I dont love love Miller but the appeal is the touches. No competition whatsoever. He is going to get 20 plus touches per game no matter what.

      The RB position is so bad that anyone getting 20 touches per game on volume alone is going to be an RB1.

  3. in a 10 team ppr, would you package latavius and marvin for antonio? thanks.

  4. QB: Bortles
    RB: Lamar Miller, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, McKinnon, D. Washington, J. Howard
    WR: Mike Evans, Allen Robinson,Tyler Lockett, DeVante Parker, M. Floyd, Tyrell Williams
    TE: Pitta DST: Bengals K: J. Brown
    Add me to the PANIC Group… (unless Julio Jones gets less than 20yrds tonight) I’ll be 0-3. Any buy low tips given my situation and current Roster? I’m not sure what else I can do at this point. P.S. Thank you again for all your help/advice.

    • The roster itself isnt bad by any means. You just really need Charles to come back.

      Your RB1 situation is fine. Evans and Robinson are a great 1-2 punch at receiver. Where you are lacking are the flex and RB 2 positions but they arent completely terrible.

      Howard should be in for a starters workload this week with Langfor looking like he is out so that is a great RB2 there. Finding a flex from McKinnon, Washington, Parker, WIlliams is a nice problem to have. It is just going to come down to picking the right one every week.

      See if there is a RB needy team that needs a 2 for 1 swap of quality for quantity. Unfortunately you also might have to sell low on Charles to someone who is 2-1 or 3-0 and willing to take the potential risk that he doesnt play this week again.

      Also I am sorry but I really need Julio and Coleman to combine for 15 points tonight so I cant say I will be rooting for a goose egg from Julio!

      • Palmer and Gurley for Miller and Charles/Bernard? The Palmer Owner has Brady coming back and lost Martin to injury. Is that a reasonable offer?

        Or i could make an offer to the Le’veon Bell (+ Oswieler) owner for Charles and Bortles.

        • Thats too much for me. I think I would rather have Miller than Gurley right now.

          Youre going to need to give up a lot more than that to get Bell I think. If redrafting today he would be my #1 overall player.

  5. Drop Langford (I own Howard)? Waiver RBs include Morris, Drake, Artis-Payne, McCluster….

    • Ya I think you can do that. Its not worth waiting 4-6 weeks on him. Youre roster depends on who to grab.

      Morris is the ultimate lottery ticket. Artis-Payne is the short term play if you need someone for the next 2-3 weeks, Drake is somewhere in the middle.

  6. Thomas, Gordon, and Ebron for Gronk?

    • I own Brady and Bennett. 0.5 ppr and returns (1pp15)

      My other WRs are Green, Robinson, and Lockett.

    • That is a solid offer for Gronk and should get it done (assuming Josh Goron). I would try to buy lower first. Maybe even just Thomas and Ebron

      • They sound desperate and they’re considering Gronk for Thomas, Ebron, and DeAndre Washington. I could try to make it bigger: Bryant+Gronk for Thomas. Ebron, Gordon, Lockett? Lockett is valuable because the league counts return yards. They also have Jordan Matthews and Decker.

        • I like the Gronk for Thomas, Ebron, Washington and would definitely do that if they accept it.

          I cant see him accepting it by adding Bryant for Lockett even in a return yards league. I dont think Lockett returns kicks anymore and punt returns dont accumulate a ton of yards.

          He might get 1-2 punt returns per week, punts end in fair catches a lot. Some weeks that means he might only tack on 1-2 points to his receiving totals that have been subpar so far.

  7. Mike Evans and Lockett for Julio Jones? I’m thinking it might be a good sell high time for Evans as he is currently the ranked 2nd at WR… That owner also has Jonathan Stewart (who I know is injured) but maybe I could somehow include that in the trade…. Such as Evans, Floyd, and bernard/D Washington for Julio and Stewart? Also I noticed that Adam Humphries is also available. I was reading somewhere that he may be more valuable than Lockett especially with Wilson injured.

    • Evans is a good sell high. He is on a probably unsustainable target rate. Julio is a complete stud and I really hate his upcoming schedule but that is still a good sell high.

      You might even be able to sell Evans and Bernard for Julio and Stewart depending on how desperate he is.

      If you need someone to start now you can grab Humphries but I wouldnt be really confident that he keeps it up. The upside is with Lockett.

  8. Do I start Jamaal Charles if he plays?? RB1 DMurray and my bench is Martin(Out), T Colemam and C.Michaels

    • and Howard is available… Do I grab him? (Bench: T.Brady, Martin, Coleman, Michaels, Jeffrey and Evans)

    • Michael is the start this week. Mainly because he might play but be eased in similar to Gronk last week. I own Charles in a league as well and I am starting Howard over him.

      Also remember its a Sunday night game so there is no guarantee he plays and theres that chance at a 0.

      Once he comes out of the bye I would be starting him almost every week

  9. Yeah, I am just worry about Micheal and the Jets defense against RB, that they’ve stopped every RB they faced

  10. Hey do you think Prescott is keeping the starting job? I also have Bortles which is being a bust this 3 weeks (QB can be flex in the league) and waiting for Brady to come back next week

    • I cant confirm because the tv here is on mute but I just saw the people on First Take talking on the topic that Dak is now the QB. I literally dont know if that is a report or one of the classic “Lets say something just so people will talk about it” type of headlines.

      That being said Dak has at least another 3 plus weeks. If they are 5-2 or something like that when its time for Romo to come back I wouldnt be shocked if they handed it over to Dak a la Brady taking over for Bledsoe years ago. There is money invested in Romo but if the Cowboys wanted they could get a king’s ransom in a trade in the offseason, just look at what the Eagles got for Bradford.

      Preseason I didnt think there was a chance. I am steadily getting closer to thinking its Dak’s job. Right now I am at 50/50 but another good showing might swing it in Dak’s favor.

  11. Yeah, I’m in the same dilema… My Original plan from the Draft was Bortles-Brady as QBs, but since Dak was on the Waiver Wire I grabbed him and now I’m not sure if I switch to Brady-Prescott… I’m a little mad that right now, I’m 1-2 with I think I have an excellent team:

    QB: Prescott
    RB1 D Murray
    RB2 C. Michaels
    WR1 D Hopkins
    WR2 AJ Green
    TE Pitta (Previously Barnige)
    Flex/QB: Bortles
    Defense: Now Redkins
    Kicker: Gano

    Bench: Brady, Jeffrey, Evans, E. Sanders, Charles, Coleman, Martin

  12. Trade question in a 12 team. 5 ppr. Start qb, 3wr, 2 rb, te, flex, k, def., 6 bench and 1ir. Qb D. Carr, wr D. Hopkins, Dez, D. Thomas, Edelman, Tate, T. Williams. Rb T. Coleman, Sims, Bernard, duke Johnson , Dixon, te Gates and Witten . Someone offered a trade for edelman, sims, dixon for fuller, ware, R. Matthews . His team is qb Manning, wrs Brown, Cooper, fuller, j. Brown, Beasley, rbs Martin, gordan, ware, r. Matthews, howard , smallwood, te fleener and pitta. I have no intention of accepting the trade offer, but is there a counter offer to improve my team. By the way his record so far is 0-3. Mine is 2-1. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and time.

    • I wouldnt do it. I would rather have Edelman, Sims and Dixon. Dixon should get a shot at being a lead back sometime soon and Sims probably has another 2 or so weeks as the workhorse in TB. And Edelman should get a huge boost once Brady comes back next week.

      Mathews is getting close to worthless right now. Maybe the ankle has been bothering him but even so the other backs in the offense seem to have a role. Ware might only have 1 game left as being a nice starting option. Week 5 they go on bye and I would expect Charles to be the lead back after the bye. I like Fuller but not for what you have to give up everywhere else.

      • Thanks for the tip. My thoughts on that offer are very close to yours. No real upside for my team. However, Martin interest me. He has a great sos. Especially in the playoffs and I own sims already. Maybe he’s targeting because of that. He has rb to plug Martin gap, but the wrs. So, if I counter for Martin with Williams and … Dixon? 2 for one. Or Martin and Howard for Williams or edelman with dixon or another established rb? What do you think?

        • You would probably have to give a little more than that. I know in my league the guy wanted Coleman and McKinnon for Martin.

          Maybe Bernard plus something else small can get it done because he is in a desperate spot

  13. Offered Bernard and McKinnon to Martin owner. Declined and countered asking for Charles straight up. That owner also has Brady and palmer as QBs and Miller and Graham as Ted. Any counter there?

    • Charles and Martin are most likely useless until week 6. From week 6 on I would prefer Charles to Martin so I wouldnt do that.

      You can try Charles plus Bortles for Brady and Martin. I dont think he accepts it but maybe he is a huge Charles fan and he already has Palmer.

  14. Just got an offer from another owner for Lamar Miller… Freeman and Ware. Not sure I’m crazy about that.. But title would give me the handcuff on Charles if I keep him. I wonder if I could try to work Hopkins or Jeffery in the deal by including Evans?

    • Ya I dont like it. The downgrade to Freeman from Miller isnt worth adding Ware which is essentially, I think, a handcuff when they come out of the bye.

      • What about countering with Charles for Freeman? Or do u think Charles will be better ROS

        • I like Charles more rest of season. What the Falcons are doing with their RBs, making both of them fantasy relevant, is great but keeping that production sustainable is hard to do.

          I still think when Charles comes back he is a 15-18 touch, or more, back and he should do a lot more with his touches than Freeman.

          • Do u think ware has any value ROS? Should I offer Robinson for alshon jeffery/Hopkins + ware?

          • I think Ware has value but not a ton once Charles returns. I think he goes to a flex play at best and a bye week fill in as an RB2 if youre desperate.

            The deals you listed are worth it though. I dont think you can get Hopkins and Ware but if you can great. I think Jeffery and Ware is solid but I feel like I would want a tad more. Its fine to take that though and handcuff Charles

  15. Thanks Andy. The Hopkins owner also has Cooks. Do u like him more than jeffery? He declined the offer for Hopkins but I may try jeffery or Cooks. Also, any hot late week ww adds this week like Howard was last week?

    • You can go either way there. I like Jeffery more but Cooks is far less of a headache week to week in terms of having to monitor injury reports and potentially need a last minute replacement.

      In terms of people who could be the big waiver add next week. No one jumps out but if there is going to be anyone that does I would guess Paul Perkins. DeAndre Washington is a Latavius injury away from being a top-20 back if he’s still unowned. Mike Gillislee falls into the same category if McCoy gets hurt.

      Enunwa if he hasnt been added. Chris Hogan might have value when Brady returns.

      Kenneth Dixon is my number 1 if he is still out there.

      • Sent out an offer for D. Washington for Ware. Thinking of offering Bernard and Washington for Ware and Dixon. Do you think it’s too much for Ware+Dixon? Dixon was just added from waivers by the ware owner yesterday. Everything i’m reading says Dixon should be a beast once up to speed in NFL. I’m not sure Bernard has much value unless Hill gets hurt…

        • That should easily get it done. I like Washington a lot but getting Ware is important for you as a Charles owner. The perceived value of Bernard should have him accepting it.

          I actually already have Bernard as a sell low for this weeks buy/low sell high.

  16. Do u think Dalton is just a little better than bortles? I’m thinking of including them and making it a 3 player trade for both of us. Just not sure Dixon is worth reaching for considering he was just picked up.

    • Ya I do think Dalton is better than Bortles. Not a ton better but marginally. Like Dalton is rarely going to win you a fantasy week but he wont have many 6 point clunkers like Bortles might.

      For what it is worth you wont be able to have that trade get processed until after the week is over because of the Bengals players involved. Probably better to just wait it out and offer it next week than do the deal and risk someone getting hurt on Sunday. Then again you would more likely be the one to benefit from a potential injury.

      • Rejected the trade including bortles and Dalton. Countered with ,Freeman, ware, and Dalton for Miller. May try the trade without the QBs. I doesn’t look like he’s interested in anyone other than Miller. What would be a good return on Miller? Ware, jeffery/cooks and Dixon? Or is he too valuable to trade at this point? Should I ask for Hopkins and Ware for Miller?

        • I think I would just hang on to Miller unless you can get a haul. He is one of the handful of backs in the league with no competition for carries. Almost a lock for 20 touches every week and up to 30 most weeks.

          • How about Freeman, ware, Hopkins and Dalton for Miller, Robinson, bortles and one other player of mine… Least value… I fee like he might bite on a haul if I come up with something involving Freeman and Miller.

          • I would probably just hold. To me Miller>Hopkins. Robinson>Freeman. The rest of it doesnt really make you that much better. Freeman is going to be limited weekly by Coleman being there so while he will have some great weeks I would be surprised if he gets more than 20 touches more than 1 or 2 times this season.

  17. I loved my team 2 days ago and now I hate it. I lost Gordon and Watkins in the 24 hours. I am in a 12 team .5 ppr league. Can you please give me some advice on some potential trades I could try to improve my team?

    Cousins
    Fitzpatrick
    Latavious
    Le’veon
    Jennings
    AJ Green
    Tyrell Williams
    Golden
    Quincy Eunuwa
    Zach Miller
    Brate
    Gordon
    Watkins

    I think i need help at the WR position

    • I would see if you can get someone that buys into Latavius’s production so far. As in maybe a box score guy that sees the point production.

      Sometimes when injuries hit you like this the best bet is to trade away one of your studs as much as that might hurt. Maybe deal Bell or Green to get like a Melvin Gordon/DeMarco Murray and Marvin Jones/Damaryius Thomas. Overall you lose that true stud but your team isnt killed. You can obviously shoot higher and might be able to get better but that would be a settle point for me.

      Do you start a flex or is it a 2RB, 3WR league?

      • Its 2RB, 2WR and a Flex

      • I’m thinking Latavious, AJ and Williams for Ingram, Marvin Jones and Alshon. Is this a trade you would make?

        • Ya it is. I like that deal a lot if you can get it. Im low on Latavius but I know a lot of people have been able to ship him off because of his point totals through three weeks.

          Only place you dont get a clear upgrade there is Green to Alshon/Marvin. You give up the best player in the deal but probably get the 2-4 best.

  18. His response offer after rejecting Bernard and Washington for Ware and Dixon was Allen Robinson for Ware, Dalton and Asiata. Looks like he wants to hold Dixon. What would be a good value for Robinson? Do u like Gore more than Freeman? Gore /Freeman, ware, and Cooks, for Robinson Washington and Snead. He may want McKinnon as well cuz he already has Asiata. Maybe Robinson and McKinnon for Ware and jeffery/cooks?

    • I like Freeman more. I am down on Freeman but only in the sense that he isnt a top 15 back because of workload concerns. Gore is more lower 20s to me.

      Robinson has struggled this year but the Jags are settling into a nice part of their schedule. He, and Bortles, should have some good games coming up.

      • Congrats on an awesome showing of your steelers. They look great! Hey I was thinking… Maybe I would be better off trying to deal Charles to the ware owner instead of trying to get ware since he seems to want big name players. (plus this way I get past his bye week) . What would be a fair value be? I could try Hopkins and Freeman for Charles and Robinson and see what comes of it… Or just Hopkins for Charles + Floyd/whoever.

        • Last night was definitely an easy game to watch.

          That is probably fair value on both and I know Charles barely played but man I really am excited to see him back. I think he was forced into action this week because West was out. He now can get 2 more weeks of practice in and come back out in week 6 looking like his old self. I think I would regret it if I waited all this time then dealt him. In the end maybe dealing him would be the right call, but if it’s me there is no chance I can deal him now knowing he is going to be active coming out of the bye.

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