Daily Fantasy Quick Hits – September 25

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It’s hard to believe that we are just 8 days away from the postseason. It’s likely my last day of DFS for the year, having subbed in maybe a dozen times for our resident expert Neil. Jim will cover tomorrow with Neil closing things out for us after that. I want to personally thank you for coming to the Assembly for your DFS needs this season. I know that Neil did you well! Best of luck today and for the last week of the year. 

We’ve got a full slate of games today with very little in the way of weather to be concerned about. What we do need to worry about potentially is the late game. That makes things tricky when the top pitcher of the day is scheduled then. Play close attention to the forecast in Chicago today, as Jon Lester should be the most popular arm going today. 

Here are your quick hits of the day:

Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:

  1. Starlin Castro vs Marco Estrada – 13/32 with 4 doubles and 4 walks
  2. Justin Upton vs Edinson Volquez – 11/26 with 5 doubles and a home run
  3. Kendrys Morales vs Matt Boyd – 8/11 with 2 doubles, a triple, and a home run
  4. Marcell Ozuna vs Julio Teheran – 15/36 with a double and 3 home runs
  5. Anthony Rizzo vs Carlos Martinez- 7/23 with a double, a triple, 3 home runs and 3 walks

Stacks to Target:

  1. Brewers vs Brandon Finnegan – Finnegan is making his last start of the year, coming off an appearance last week where he allowed 5 runs in just 2.1 innings against the Pirates. Now Pittsburgh is baseball’s 4th best offensive club vs LHP, but Milwaukee is no slouch either, coming in at #6 overall. Finnegan was a sleeper heading in to the season, but a 4% drop in K% coupled with a 16% drop in his GB% didn’t do him any favors. Finnegan has given up 29 HR this year in just 167 innings, while the Brew Crew is second in home runs hit this month, trailing just the Rays. 
  2. Mariners vs Hector Santiago – It’s hard to put into words just how bad Santiago has been pitching in his new ballpark in Minnesota, so I’ll just let the numbers speak for themselves: 1-3, 6.83 ERA, 10 BB, 19 K, 5 HR in 27 innings pitched. He’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher and the wind is blowing out at a good clip today. For good measure, the Mariners have hit 75 HR against LHP this year. The next best team is the Diamondbacks with 58. Get used to hearing “It’s a long fly ball, deep left field..” today. 

Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:

  • Mariners at Twins – 14 MPH wind blowing out
  • Cardinals at Cubs – Chance of rain

Pitchers of the Day:

  1. Jon Lester vs Cardinals – With Cueto and Hill getting replaced today, we’re left with Jon Lester as the sole big fish among today’s starting pitchers. He has been otherworldly and I would expect his ownership levels to be through the roof today. I can’t see fading him in cash games, as the Cardinals aren’t great against LHP (bottom third), and they are the 5th worst hitting ballclub this month in terms of wOBA. Lester hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in his last 7 games, or more than two runs since July. He also has a 2.22 ERA lifetime against St. Louis. I like to try to be a little different than others in my recommendations, but it would be silly to bet against Lester today. 
  2. Clayton Richard vs Giants – My bargain-priced starter today is Richard at just $5,000 on Draft Kings. Richard has been outstanding since being moved into the rotation, boasting a 1.71 ERA over 7 starts. Now, he’s been lucky with a 90% strand rate but against the Giants I still like him. The Giants are a complete wreck at the plate right now, hitting just .197 for the past week and .219 for the month. They were never good against LHP (22nd overall for the season), and they just seem ripe for the picking right now. 

Platoon Split Hitters:

  1. Brandon Guyer vs Eduardo Rodriguez – Hitting .344 vs LHP with a 1.082 OPS in 64 at bats
  2. Lorenzo Cain and Whit Merrifield vs Daniel Norris – Combined hitting .366/.414/.559 vs LHP
  3. Orlando Arcia and Domingo Santana vs Brandon Finnegan – Combined hitting .320/.431/.553 vs LHP

Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @FantasyAssembly

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Paul Hartman

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Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.