See, I told you last week wasn’t going to be as good as week one. I was all over the Saints and Giants and it turned out to be wrong for the most part – Rashad Jennings “ouch”.
That will happen from time to time. Defenses no one expects to show up, show up, and it ends badly. Typically something like this doesn’t kill people because odds are you aren’t starting (for example) Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, and Willie Snead. You might have one or two of those guys, but not all.
This is one of the reasons why you might want to try to diversify your roster. Sure there will be great weeks when they all score a touchdown in a 55-10 win and you blow out your opponent, but odds are not all of those players can be great in the same week.
Stacking is a popular new term because of DFS. It is a viable strategy there because you want the upside and week-to-week you can pick and choose players and matchups.
In the end your weekly roster construction should come down to one simple thing, “Who do I think is going to score the most points?” Some weeks that might mean you start a lineup of maybe three or four players from the same roster. Don’t do the “My opponent is starting Odell Beckham Jr. so I am going to start Eli Manning over Cam Newton.”
No. No. No. Sure that might alleviate some risk, but if Eli scores his usual 18 or so points and Cam scores 25, what did alleviating that risk help? The only thing you can do is set your lineup up to score the most points in any week. That’s it. This same thing goes for the “My quarterback (running back or receiver) is going against my defense. Should I bench one?”
The only thing you can do for your team is put the team out there that will score the most points. You can’t play defense against your opponent.
You will notice this week that I am no longer including defense options in the stream portion. All of my defensive streamers will be included in the week’s waiver wire article that comes out every Tuesday.
Don’t forget to check out No Halftime, it is the ultimate start and sit DFS platform. Think Eli Manning outscores Cam Newton? Put a contest out there and put your money where your mouth is, or find an existing challenge to accept. No Halftime also has contests in other sports as well.
And don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter for Sunday morning active and inactive players as well as in-game injury news. Follow @TheSportsGuy40
Philip Rivers @ Colts: No Keenan Allen, no problem. Danny Woodhead leaves early in the game, no problem. I was really worried about Rivers with the loss of Allen, but it didn’t bother him last week. Antonio Gates is also looking iffy for Sunday’s action. The Colts secondary is in shambles as well. Rivers still has Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin in the passing game and can lean on Melvin Gordon to move the ball up and down the field against the Colts. Trevor Siemian didn’t do much against the bad Colt’s secondary, but Siemian is nowhere near Philip Rivers in terms of ability.
What you can expect: 300 yards, two touchdowns
Matt Ryan @ Saints: Sure the Saints’ defense let me down by actually doing good. That doesn’t change how I view them. This is still a potentially historically bad defense. Ryan leads the all qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt, with an unheard of 10, but a lot of last week was fluky. No matter. Ryan and Julio in the dome should equal a lot of fantasy goodness.
What you can expect: 350 yards, three touchdowns
Andy Dalton vs. Broncos: There are very few quarterbacks I would start against the Broncos, and Andy Dalton is not on that list. He leads the NFL in passing yards, but that is sure to change after this week.
What you can expect: 200 yards, one touchdown, two turnovers
Jameis Winston vs. Rams: What Winston is the real Winston? The four touchdown performer in week one or the four point performer in week two. Obviously it is somewhere in the middle. I don’t want to trust him in a rough matchup with the Rams.
What you can expect: 225 yards, one touchdown, one interception
Kirk Cousins @ Giants: He has looked bad through two weeks and that might be putting it lightly. The good news is that the yards have been there, but he is turning it over and not scoring touchdowns. Against an improved Giants secondary on the road I am looking to a lot of other available options.
What you can expect: 250 yards, one touchdown, one interception
Russell Wilson vs. 49ers: He hasn’t been what he was last year. I think the ankle and mobility plays a part in that. I can’t call him a top-10 option this week so there is a good chance you either have or can find someone better to start.
What you can expect: 250 yards passing, one touchdown
Ryan Tannehill vs. Browns: Can you get a better matchup right now? The Browns might not do anything on offense and the defense is bad. The Dolphins might have the ball for 45 minutes this game, and this is not me complementing the Dolphins.
What you can expect: 275 yards, two touchdowns
Carson Wentz vs. Steelers: His first real test. The Steelers defense isn’t top five or even top 10 but Wentz will be pressed into scoring this week rather than gifted the luxury of not having to force things. But like I said, the Steelers’ defense isn’t anything special, and the Eagles will have to score in 24 plus to keep up with the Steelers.
What you can expect: 250 yards, two touchdowns, one interceptions
Marcus Mariota vs. Raiders: The Raiders have given up a league worst passing yards this season, about 100 more than anyone else through two games. Mariota is sitting in a nice matchup with the Raiders having to travel cross-country to play an early game
What you can expect: 275 yards passing, one touchdown, 20 yards rushing
Theo Riddick @ Packers: No Ameer Abdullah means Riddick will dominate the passing downs work, and like I noted before with Stafford these guys are throwing a lot. The upside isn’t huge. I would be surprised if he ever cracks 20 points. Not like that is saying a lot because a lot of backs don’t do that, but you can’t expect him to ever end up with more than 15 or so points. This game sets up a lot better for Riddick than it does for anyone else in the backfield. If he has a good week it should lead to a perfect sell high in standard leagues, and possibly PPR.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing, 6 catches 50 yards receiving
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman @ Saints: Both are viewed in a bad light because they split snaps and touches, but both have their fair share of touches (Freeman 16/game, Coleman 13.5) that with their talents shouldn’t be a huge concern. Against the Saints defense 13-18 touches is gold. While I like both I obviously have a lot more confidence in Freeman.
What you can expect (Freeman): 60 yards rushing, one touchdown, two catches for 15 yards
What you can expect: (Coleman): 40 yards rushing, 3 catches for 40 yards
Christine Michael vs. 49ers: With Thomas Rawls doubtful Micheal should get a heavy workload. Even in a tough matchup he should be fired up as a top-15 running back based on touches alone.
What you can expect: 90 yards, one touchdown
Jeremy Hill vs. Broncos: He should be in danger of losing his job the way he has been playing. The Broncos should easily be able to shut him down like everyone else has been for about a year. If you have to play him pray he can get a goal line carry.
What you can expect: 30 yards rushing
Eddie Lacy vs. Lions: His appeal is quickly fading. He only played five more snaps than Starks last week and that might happen again with the Packers possibly going into a shutout.
What you can expect: 60 yards rushing
Jeremy Langford @ Cowboys: He just isn’t a great running back. He might be a poor man’s Jeremy Hill in terms of season long value, but on a worse offense, and this week against a team that is going to try to take the air out of the ball. Grab Howard before kickoff where you can. I don’t know if Fox would turn to a rookie, but if Howard keeps looking this bad he might not have a choice.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing, 2 catches for 15 yards
Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake vs. Browns: As of right now it looks like Ajayi will get the first crack but I like Drake more. Whoever ends up with the workload is a definite start against the Browns. You just might have to guess on who it is. Right now it’s Ajayi, but I would also take a shot on Drake if I was desperate.
What you can expect (Ajayi): 60 yards rushing, one touchdown
What you can expect (Drake): 40 yards rushing, 4 catches for 50 yards
Dwayne Washington @ Packers: Maybe he plays 30 snaps. Those snaps should turn into a decent touch total and a potential goal line touchdown. If I could I would wait a week before I started him, but in a pinch I would toss him out there.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing, one touchdown, 1 catch for 10 yards
Duke Johnson @ Dolphins: I don’t know who it is, but some underneath pass catcher will have a good game for the Browns with Kessler’s arm strength issues. If the injury bug hit you hard last week don’t feel bad taking a chance on Johnson.
What you can expect: 20 yards rushing, 5 catches for 50 yards
Darren Sproles vs. Steelers: He played 41 of the team’s 72 snaps last Monday night including four rushing attempts on eight the red zone snaps. He is the team’s passing downs back in what should be a game where the Eagles will have to score. It was also noted earlier this season that the Eagles would like to use him like Danny Woodhead. This is a low ceiling with an uninspiring floor type play.
What you can expect: 40 yards rushing, 4 catches for 50 yards receiving
Marvin Jones @ Packers: Through two weeks he is seventh in receiver snaps played, in a tie for seventh in targets, and one of only eight receivers to have more than 200 yards on the season. Jones has yet to find the end zone, but it will come. I expect it this week when he is my No Halftime play this week. Download the app to see who I would start Jones over and accept either my paid or free challenge.
What you can expect: 6 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown
Stefon Diggs @ Panthers: The Panthers corners aren’t as good as you might think. It will come down to can the offensive line give Bradford enough time to throw.
What you can expect: 5 catches for 90 yards
Tajae Sharpe vs. Raiders: The Raiders defense is historically bad right now. Through two games no team has allowed more yards, ever.
What you can expect: 6 catches for 100 yards
Emmanuel Sanders @ Bengals: It’s looking like this could be a wasted pick. I would give him this week and then it might be time to cut bait. The good news for those holding out hope is that he is getting a lot of red zone looks.
What you can expect: 5 catches for 50 yards
Randall Cobb vs. Lions: Something isn’t right with the Green Bay offense. I don’t know what it is, but right now I have to bench Cobb until something changes.
What you can expect: 6 catches for 50 yards
Phillip Dorsett vs. Chargers: As the number two receiver in a pass heavy offense for the next four plus weeks Dorsett is going to have some nice weeks moving forward. The downside is they often don’t have enough time to throw the ball with the bad offensive line.
What you can expect: 5 catches for 90 yards
Quincy Enunwa @ Chiefs: He might get more looks with Marshall hobbled, and even if Marshall is fine Enunwa is getting his fair share of looks. He is playing 75 percent of snaps as it stands now. The Jets almost never use a tight end in the passing game so there still are looks to go around after Marshall and Decker.
What you can expect: 5 catches for 75 yards
Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams vs. Colts: I like both receivers this week. With Woodhead out and Gates looking iffy at best these two should get plenty of looks against a depleted secondary. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them both go for 100 yards.
What you can expect (Benjamin): 6 catches for 100 yards
What you can expect (Williams): 4 catches for 80 yards
Andrew Hawkins @ Dolphins: This one is for you 16-team and deeper leagues. Like I said with Duke Johnson someone is going to have to catch underneath passes because Kessler won’t have success throwing to his best receiver (Pryor) who is primarily a downfield threat. Between garbage time and just typical game planning Hawkins might have some deep PPR appeal.
What you can expect: 6 catches for 70 yards
Dennis Pitta @ Jaguars: I really wish I recommended him here last week. If you read through the comments on one of the articles from last week you can see I was a fan, but last week was the big “I’m back” for Pitta. He had nine catches for over 100 yards. As a receiver that line makes you interested. As a tight end you should be all over Pitta.
What you can expect: 6 catches for 70 yards, and his welcomed return to the end zone for the first time since 2014
Jacob Tamme @ Saints: Take a guess at the season’s top target leaders for tight ends. First is a surprise Jason Witten with 18. After that the guys you would expect in Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen. In a tie for fourth is Jacob Tamme, and the player named before him, Dennis Pitta. With tight ends, 90 percent of it is just getting targets. So few tight ends aren’t involved in the passing game a lot. Any tight end that can average more than seven targets per game is great. At tight end you are essentially just hoping for seven plus points.
What you can expect: 6 catches for 65 yards
Kyle Rudolph @ Panthers: He has burned people a lot in the past with his upside and then never panning out. With Adrian Peterson out of the picture and Sam Bradford at quarterback Rudolph could be a weekly red zone option for the Vikings. As of right now Matt Asiata is the expected goal line back. Something tells me he won’t punch in those red zone touchdowns as well as Peterson did, leaving more chances for guys like Rudolph to find the end zone.
What you can expect: 4 catches 40 yards, one touchdown
Coby Fleener vs. Falcons: I’m just going to leave this here and let it speak for itself
You would think that Brees will eventually stop looking Fleener’s way pic.twitter.com/5VUbqAE4aj
— Matt Franciscovich (@MattFranchise) September 20, 2016
What you can expect: 3 catches for 30 yards
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