Good day everyone! In order to hit a big win with a DFS lineup you have to be flawless with your process. Yesterday, I made a great lineup, but made one unforced error which made a potentially big win turn into a $9 win. After the MLB starting lineups came out, one of my favorite cheap stacks was the Phillies, and I paired them with two top pitchers in David Price and Jeff Samardzija (against the AAA Padres lineup). I had about $11,000 in salary left over for 3 lineup spots and decided to splurge on one of my favorite plays, Freddie Freeman and punt two positions with a mini bottom of the order Yankees stack. Everything worked out great except for those two punt plays and I ended up with a 155 point lineup. Had I distributed the last 3 lineup spots more evenly and not punted two spots, that could have been a 190+ point lineup and a big winner. Lessons learned – even at the end of a long season. Today is a new day – let’s see what we came up with.
As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Chris Coghlan vs. Mike Leake – 11/19 with 4 doubles and 2 homers
- Yoenis Cespedes vs. Jeremy Hellickson – 6/14 with 3 homers and 2 walks
- Rajai Davis vs. Miguel Gonzalez – 7/17 with 3 homers and 2 doubles
- Paul Goldschmidt vs. Yovani Gallardo – 6/10 with a double and 5 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Orioles vs. Shelby Miller – Miller’s numbers this season are astoundingly bad, and facing a tough and deep Orioles lineup will not likely be the cure for his ills. For anyone who thinks that Miller has been appreciably better since his return to the majors in the 2nd half, that has not been the case. His 1st half ERA was 7.14 and his 2nd half ERA 6.10. He has a minuscule 12.4% K-Rate in the 2nd half and is allowing a 38.8% hard contact since the break. The Orioles are one of the best teams against right-handed pitching with a .336 team wOBA and .200 team ISO. They need this win, so do not expect the O’s to make it easy on Miller tonight.
- Blue Jays vs. Bryan Mitchell – Mitchell has allowed a .345/.387/.552 line to right-handed bats this season with a .399 wOBA. That is in line with his career .307/.372/.452 rate. The Jays are another desperate team that gets a positive pitching match-up in their home park. I expect them to come to play.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Drew Pomeranz vs. Rays – I would not rush to make this play in cash games, but I love it for GPPs. Pomeranz has been hit hard in his last two starts with 9 ER over 5.2 innings. As a result, both DraftKings and FanDuel have dropped his price to a very affordable $8,700. While Tampa Bay used to be a spot to avoid left-handed pitching that is no longer the case as they have a very high 25.2% K-Rate versus lefties this year. Pomeranz is a pretty good strikeout pitcher and in two August starts against the Rays he struck out 19 batters in 12.2 innings. There is the potential for a blowup here, but also the potential for a very high score. Pomeranz is a main GPP target for me.
- Doug Fister vs. Angels – Sometimes a pitcher matches up well with a certain team, and that is the case with Fister versus the Angels. Fister has allowed a sky-high .392 wOBA to left-handed bats this year and only a .269 wOBA to righties. The Angels usually trot out 8 righties in their lineup – advantage Fister! You can see this from Fister’s results against the Angels this year where he has thrown 13 innings and allowed only 9 hits and 3 earned runs while striking out 10. For only $5,200 in DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel, I will take advantage of this good match-up and get some solid bats into my lineups.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- None! Play ball.
Platoon Split Hitters
- Sean Rodriguez vs. Gio Gonzalez – Rodriguez is having an impressive year against southpaws with a .421 wOBA and 169 wRC+.
- Robbie Grossman vs. James Paxton – Grossman is one of my favorite platoon guys this year with an amazing .452 wOBA and 192 wRC+ against lefties.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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