What a glorious day it is today! I had a very nice score yesterday in the DraftKings Moonshot where I finished in 6th place out of 39,215 entrants for $750. I had a Pirates stacks, along with two top of the order A’s and Christian Colon of the Royals, and used the highest priced pitchers on the slate in Johnny Cueto and Rich Hill.
You have to be both good and lucky to finish that high in a GPP, as my picks for low-priced lineups that would score a lot of runs were right on, but truth be told, Christian Colon was a throw-away player who was only in my line-up because he was the only starting 3B whose salary fit. As it turned out, Colon hit a 3-run homer with 2 outs in the 9th inning of a game that his team was trailing by double digits, and that netted me 18 points. Without that homer, (which was Colon’s first of the year), I would still have done very well, but my finish would have been outside the top 10.
As for today, we have a full slate of games with one taking place in the afternoon at Wrigley Field. There are some great pitchers on the mound today (Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, Hamels etc.), so if you can find value stacks like I did yesterday, you could be in for a winning day. Happy Grinding!
As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Jake Lamb vs. Kenta Maeda – 7/13 with 3 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Colby Rasmus vs. Felix Hernandez – 7/10 with a double and 3 walks
- Miguel Cabrera vs. Corey Kluber – 21/42 with 2 doubles, 5 homers and 2 walks
- Brandon Phillips vs. Ryan Vogelsong – 12/24 with 3 doubles and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Padres at Rockies – Coors Field Alert!
- Marlins vs. Adam Morgan – The Marlins do not have the best offense, but if you are looking to get some high-priced pitchers in your lineups today, this might be a great place to look. Morgan has allowed a .381 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the year and has been a generally putrid pitcher against everyone with 35.8% hard contact and a 5.73 ERA on the season. The Marlins have a few guys who should be able to take advantage such as Martin Prado (.449 wOBA versus LHP), Marcell Ozuna (.392 wOBA versus LHP), and Xavier Scruggs, whose numbers against southpaws do not look great due to batted ball bad luck, but he has an amazingly high 57.1% hard contact versus lefties.
- Red Sox vs. Luis Cessa – If you want to take the opposite tact, the Red Sox will likely be lower owned than usual since many people will be paying up for pitching and will not be able to afford the Sox bats. If you like some of the lower priced pitchers today, the Sox are in a great spot facing Cessa who has a 4.34 ERA, 4.49 SIERA, 32.9% hard contact rate, and a very low 15.8% K-Rate. The Red Sox projected lineup has a .374 wOBA against righties and a collective 36.5% hard contact against righties – led by the ageless David Ortiz who has an astounding 46.6% hard contact versus righties on the year. This could be the highest scoring offense of the day.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Corey Kluber vs. Tigers – Kluber has been throwing really well recently with a 31.0% K-Rate over his last 30 days, which is greatly increased from his still impressive season rate of 26.5%. This has led to good results as his ERA sits at 2.43 over the last 30 days. Kluber loves to face righties, allowing only a .260 wOBA (though Miguel Cabrera is an exception) and loves home cooking where his ERA is 2.97. I feel like everyone will be playing Max Scherzer against the Braves, but at a much lower ownership I will be rolling the dice with Kluber.
- Cole Hamels vs. A’s – Hamels has not been in great form recently, but it seems as if both DraftKings and FanDuel have overcompensated with a huge price reduction. Hamels still has an impressive 3.24 ERA on the season and an above average 23.6% K-Rate. He also has a great chance for a win against the A’s who have struggle scoring runs with their .296 wOBA against lefties and 3.96 runs per game, which ranks 3rd to last in MLB. I feel like a Kluber and Hamels pairing (on DraftKings) will be lightly owned, but might be your ticket for a high GPP finish.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- White Sox vs. Royals – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Matt Moore – Piscotty is one of my favorite platoon plays as he possesses a .422 wOBA and 168 wRC+ versus southpaws.
- DJ LeMahieu vs. Christian Friedric – LeMahieu likes to hit against lefties with a .399 wOBA and 134 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
Go to Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.