Welcome back everyone! If you are playing DFS baseball in September, you are one of two kinds of players: Either you are a DFS football guy who is trying baseball, or you are a baseball hard-core who has had some success this season. Whichever you are, I hope today is a profitable day for you. We have 10 games on the docket today with 2 in the afternoon and 8 in the evening. I hate most of the pitchers today so there should be points a plenty if you find the right hitters. Let’s see what we came up with.
As always, all stats are courtesy of Rotowire, Rotogrinders, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Cole Kalhoun vs. J.A. Happ – 5/10 with 2 homers, a double and a walk
- Alex Dickerson vs. Yovani Gallardo – 5/11 with a homer and a double
- Angel Pagan vs. Adam Wainwright – 8/18 with 3 doubles and 3 walks
- Jorge Soler vs. Jimmy Nelson – 7/20 with 3 doubles, 2 homers and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Cubs vs. Jimmy Nelson – Nelson has been struggling along this season as his BB%, hard contact, and ERA all sit at career highs. His trouble with control has not gotten better as the season has progressed as Nelson has allowed 11 walks versus only 9 strikeouts in his last 3 starts, spanning 15 innings. Nelson has faced the Cubs twice since the All-Star break and allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings. I don’t think it will get any easier for him today. Start your Cubs.
- Blue Jays vs. Daniel Wright – The Blue Jays have been struggling offensively for the last couple of weeks, but this tomato can of a pitcher should cure what ails them. Wright had an awful 6.13 ERA in 83.2 AAA innings, earning him a release from the woeful Reds, only to get picked up by the Angels and placed in their starting rotation. He has not surprisingly responded with an even uglier 7.50 ERA in 18 major league innings. While the sample size is small in the majors, Wright is allowing an astounding 45.3% hard contact thus far on the year. I will be making a few Blue Jays stacks and pivoting pitchers around them.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Adam Wainwright vs. Giants – The Giants have really been struggling at the dish with the lowest OBP and OPS in September. Wainwright, on the other hand, has picked up his game recently, allowing 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his last 4 starts. When facing the Giants earlier this year, Wainwright held them to 5 hits and 2 runs over 7 innings with 6 strikeouts. He faces Johnny Cueto today, so I like this play better on DraftKings than FanDuel, where the win is so important, but Wainwright has great value today.
- Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Yankees – The DraftKings pricing algorithm has not caught up with E-Rod’s excellent 2nd half form, pricing him at only $5,900. Rodriguez has a 2.76 ERA and .257 wOBA allowed with a respectable 21.2% K-Rate since the all-star break. This stems mainly from a reduction in hard contact from 35.6% in the 1st half to an elite 21.8% in the 2nd half. Rodriguez faced the Yankees on August 11 and held them to only 3 hits and a walk allowing 1 earned run in 7 innings. I like him for more of the same tonight.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- A’s vs. Royals – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters
- Chris Carter vs. Jeff Montgomery – Carter has been doing well against southpaws this year with a .395 wOBA and 145 wRC+.
- Ryan Braun vs. Jeff Montgomery – Braun also continues to hit lefties with a .429 wOBA and 168 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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