Welcome to what might be the best sports day of the year. The NFL season begins today! If you missed my Week #1 NFL DraftKings picks you can find them here. But apart from the NFL, the golf playoffs are in full swing, the US Open men’s tennis finals are today, and, of course, there is still September baseball. If you are reading this, it means that you are still watching baseball today and still playing DFS baseball. I salute you my loyal friend. Let’s see what I came up with for today.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Carlos Gonzalez vs. Edwin Jackson – 7/11 with 3 doubles and 2 walks
- Mike Trout vs. Colby Lewis – 13/35 with 4 homers, 3 doubles and 4 walks
- Darin Ruf vs. Gio Gonzalez – 10/28 with 3 doubles, 3 homers and 8 walks
- Brandon Phillips vs. Ryan Vogelsong – 10/22 with 2 doubles and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Mets vs. Williams Perez – Perez really struggles with left-handed batters, allowing a .340 wOBA to them this year. This plays right into the Mets’ strength on offense, as they can trot out a slew of left-handed bats with Reyes, Cabrera, Granderson, Bruce and Loney. Perez has allowed 12 runs in his last 6.2 innings pitched and the path does not get easier today. I like the Mets for a solid afternoon.
- Rangers vs. Jered Weaver – Let’s go over the ways that Jered Weaver has been terrible this year. His 12.2% K-Rate is a career low, .305 batting average against a career high, 1.52 WHIP career high, 24.5% line drive rate a career high, 28.0% ground-ball rate a career low, 35.4% hard contact allowed a career high, 5.61 SIERA a career high, 5.79 xFIP a career high and 82.8 MPH fastball velocity a career low. This guy should not be in the major leagues anymore. Start your Rangers.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Chris Tillman vs. Tigers – Tillman gets to pitch on the road today, and he has loved pitching on the road where he sports an impressive 3.18 ERA and .288 wOBA allowed. He also enjoys facing Detroit who have a collective .195/.243/.309 line against him, and who he held to 5 hits and 2 walks over 7 scoreless innings in their last meeting where Tillman also struck out 7. He faces off against Justin Verlander, so I like this play better on DraftKings than FanDuel, since the win is not as important on DraftKings. This will be a nice, low-owned cheap play that is perfect for GPPs.
- Luke Weaver vs. Brewers – Weaver has an impressive 29.0% K-Rate and a 2.92 xFIP to go along with a 3.96 ERA. The Brewers have a sky-high 25.6% K-Rate against right-handed pitchers and play right into Weaver’s strength. In his one start against Milwaukee thus far he limited them to 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks over 6 innings while striking out 10. DraftKings inexplicably has Luke Weaver ($4,800) almost as cheap as Jered Weaver ($4,600). Make sure you start the right Weaver and stack against the other one.
Weather to Target or Avoid
- Rays at Yankees – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Mets at Braves – chance of rain
- Indians at Twins – 18 MPH wind blowing left to right
Platoon Split Hitters
- David Freese vs. Brandon Finnegan – Freese hits lefties well with a .406 wOBA and 159 wRC+.
- Danny Valencia vs. James Paxton – Valencia destroys southpaws to the tune of a .416 wOBA and 167 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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